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Evidence · NZ Election 2026

Every question, every answer, every source

Everything the study collected, as it was collected on 5 October 2026. Read any answer in full, or download the tables behind every figure in the study.

questions
174
voters the questions were written as
32
answers collected, of 820 planned
815
answers compared like for like
800
pairs of national and town answers
124
answers with sources recorded
774
answers that showed a link
304

01

Every question, with its answers

Each question was written as a voter would ask it and went to all four assistants. Some were also asked from a town. Open a question to read every answer to it in full.

Showing 20 of 174 questions

Show all 174

02

The tables behind the study

Every figure on the study page comes from these tables. They are CSV files, which open in any spreadsheet.

  • Questions

    nz-election-2026-questions.csv

    One row per question.

    Question id, report reference, question, voter, issue, towns it was also asked from, answers per assistant

    174rows

    Download questions (CSV)

  • Answers

    nz-election-2026-answers.csv

    One row per answer, with its full text.

    Answer id, question id, assistant, town, words, parties named, showed a link, websites recorded as sources, compared like for like, full text

    815rows

    Download answers (CSV)

  • Sources by answer

    nz-election-2026-sources.csv

    One row for each website recorded as a source of an answer.

    Answer id, question id, assistant, town, website, publisher type

    4,216rows

    Download sources by answer (CSV)

  • Checks against official sources

    nz-election-2026-checks.csv

    One row per statement checked.

    Check, answer id, assistant, what the answer said, verdict, what the source says, source, date

    17rows

    Download checks against official sources (CSV)

  • Who to vote for: coding

    nz-election-2026-guidance.csv

    One row per answer to the eight questions that asked who to vote for.

    Answer id, question id, assistant, what the answer did, the words that show it

    32rows

    Download who to vote for: coding (CSV)

  • Location and national answers

    nz-election-2026-towns.csv

    One row per question asked both nationally and from a location, for each assistant.

    Question, town, assistant, both answer ids, parties named nationally and from the town, same parties

    124rows

    Download location and national answers (CSV)

Use these tables to trace findings back to the original questions and answers. The full text of each answer is also on this page, under its question.

03

Read in full and checked

Some answers were read in detail or checked against official sources. Those appear on the study page, beside the findings they support.

ChatGPT · No location

We own a home with a mortgage, have school-age children and rely on two wages. After mortgage payments, rates, power and groceries, there is little buffer. I am considering my vote in the 2026 New Zealand general election. How much control can a government really have over mortgage rates, and what are the parties promising about economic stability?

Governments have limited direct control over mortgage rates. In New Zealand, the main driver is the independent Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which sets the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to influence inflation. A government can affect the wider economy — inflation, borrowing needs, housing supply, taxes, energy costs and confidence — but it cannot simply set the mortgage rate you pay. Policies for Party vote - NZ Election 2026 - Policy.nz

For a household with a mortgage and children, the key economic levers in this election are likely to be:

  • Inflation and interest rates: Lower inflation generally gives the Reserve Bank more room to reduce rates. Government spending, taxation and productivity policies can influence inflation pressures, but with delays.
  • Fiscal credibility: Large deficits or rapidly rising debt can affect borrowing costs and investor confidence; parties differ on how quickly to reduce deficits and what spending or revenue changes are appropriate. New Zealand sees smaller budget deficit before election
  • Household costs: Parties are proposing different approaches to taxes, electricity competition, supermarkets, transport costs and public services. Policies for Party vote - NZ Election 2026 - Policy.nz
  • Wages and employment: Governments can influence the conditions for growth, skills, investment and business activity, but cannot guarantee wage growth or job outcomes.

Broad economic themes in 2026 party positions

  • Christopher Luxon’s New Zealand National Party is campaigning around fiscal restraint, economic growth, keeping taxes low, returning to surplus and measures aimed at increasing competition and reducing costs. National says it will introduce no new taxes and maintain budget rules focused on debt and surplus. 2026 Election Policy | National Party

  • Chris Hipkins’s New Zealand Labour Party is emphasising cost-of-living measures, public services and investment, including policies it says are fully costed and funded. Labour has also proposed restoring a broader Reserve Bank mandate that includes employment alongside inflation. Labour's 2026 Election Policies

  • Smaller parties may influence coalition agreements. Reporting has highlighted differences over issues such as the Reserve Bank mandate, taxation, supermarkets, infrastructure and regulation. Tighter New Zealand election race stokes investor fears on policy backflips

For your situation, a useful way to compare manifestos is to ask each party:

  1. Will their tax and spending plans put upward or downward pressure on inflation?
  2. How will they reduce the cost pressures that hit a family budget (power, food, transport, childcare, healthcare)?
  3. What assumptions do they make about interest rates, wages and economic growth?
  4. Are their promises funded, and what trade-offs are involved?

The 2026 campaign is centred heavily on cost of living and economic management. New Zealand Parliament dissolved ahead of tight November vote A mortgage-heavy household may find the most relevant differences are not promises to “lower mortgage rates”, but the policies that affect inflation, incomes and unavoidable household expenses.

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Gemini · No location

We own a home with a mortgage, have school-age children and rely on two wages. After mortgage payments, rates, power and groceries, there is little buffer. I am considering my vote in the 2026 New Zealand general election. How much control can a government really have over mortgage rates, and what are the parties promising about economic stability?

Managing a household with a tight budget, a mortgage, two wages, and school-age children leaves very little room for unexpected financial shocks. Understanding how government actions connect to your everyday costs—particularly your mortgage—is vital when heading to the ballot box.

How Much Control Does a Government Have Over Mortgage Rates?

The direct answer is very little in the short term, but indirect influence over time.

  • The Reserve Bank’s Independence: In New Zealand, the government of the day does not set mortgage rates or control the Official Cash Rate (OCR). That job belongs to the independent Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Their primary legislative mandate is to keep inflation between 1% and 3%, using the OCR as a "dial" to speed up or cool down the economy.
  • Where the Government Fits In: While politicians cannot dictate interest rates, government policy heavily influences the environment in which the Reserve Bank operates:
    • Fiscal Policy: How much the government spends or taxes affects overall demand in the economy. If government spending is too high, it can stoke inflation, forcing the Reserve Bank to keep interest rates higher for longer.
    • The Remit: The Minister of Finance sets the overarching framework and targets (the Remit) that the Reserve Bank must follow.
    • Global Markets: Commercial banks also price mortgages based on international wholesale funding costs and local bank competition, which are largely outside of domestic political control.

What Parties Promise Regarding Economic Stability

As the general election approaches, political parties approach economic stability and cost-of-living relief through different lenses:

  • Focused on Fiscal Discipline and Supply-Side Reform (e.g., National and ACT):
    • These parties typically argue that the best way to bring down interest rates and ease pressure on mortgage holders is through strict government spending cuts, reducing public sector costs, and easing regulations (such as resource management laws) to boost productivity.
    • The logic is that reducing government borrowing and spending takes pressure off inflation, allowing the Reserve Bank to cut the OCR sooner.
  • Focused on Cost-of-Living Support and Public Investment (e.g., Labour and the Greens):
    • These parties generally emphasize targeted financial relief for working families (such as adjustments to tax thresholds, support for early childhood education, or assistance with energy and power bills) to immediately free up household cash flow.
    • They often argue that aggressive spending cuts can harm public services and that economic stability requires a stronger social safety net, pairing monetary policy with active government investment in housing, infrastructure, and green energy.
  • Focused on Cost-of-Living Protection and Local Industry (e.g., NZ First):
    • Typically positioning themselves around nationalist or populist economic policies, they focus heavily on protecting local industries, reviewing banking sector profits (especially concerning high mortgage lending margins), and tightening immigration or foreign investment rules to relieve domestic pressures.

What This Means for Your Vote

When evaluating your options, it helps to separate immediate relief from long-term stability:

  1. Immediate Relief: Look at policies targeting direct household expenses (like tax bracket adjustments, family assistance, or energy subsidies) that can artificially create a buffer for your weekly grocery and power bills.
  2. Long-Term Stability: Look at fiscal management plans. Parties that present credible plans to control national debt and tame inflation indirectly support an environment where the Reserve Bank can lower mortgage rates sustainably.

Given how tight your buffer is right now, which area of your household budget feels the most vulnerable under current economic conditions—the unpredictability of your mortgage rate, or day-to-day living costs like groceries and power?

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Google AI Mode · No location

We own a home with a mortgage, have school-age children and rely on two wages. After mortgage payments, rates, power and groceries, there is little buffer. I am considering my vote in the 2026 New Zealand general election. How much control can a government really have over mortgage rates, and what are the parties promising about economic stability?

Balancing a household budget on two wages with a tight buffer is a reality for many New Zealand families, especially when navigating cost-of-living pressures. As the 2026 General Election approaches (with election day set for November 7, 2026), understanding where government influence actually begins and ends can help frame your vote.

How Much Control Does a Government Have Over Mortgage Rates?

The short answer is indirect control, not direct dial-turning.

  • The Reserve Bank’s Independence (Te Pūtea Matua): In New Zealand, the government of the day does not set the Official Cash Rate (OCR) or dictate retail mortgage rates to commercial banks. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand operates independently under a mandate to maintain price stability (keeping inflation between 1% and 3%). The official cash rate (OCR) - Reserve Bank of New Zealand - Te PÅ«tea Matua
  • How Government Policy Affects Rates Indirectly: While politicians don’t set interest rates, their fiscal policies—how much they borrow, how much they spend, and how they tax—directly influence inflation. If a government runs massive deficits and pumps too much cash into the economy, inflation stays high, forcing the Reserve Bank to keep the OCR elevated or raise it further to cool things down. Conversely, fiscal restraint can help ease inflationary pressures over time.
  • Global Factors: New Zealand’s mortgage rates are heavily influenced by global financial markets, international wholesale funding costs, and geopolitical events (such as energy or supply chain shocks) that affect local inflation. [Reserve Bank of New Zealand]

In short, a government cannot force commercial banks to lower mortgage rates, but its overall economic management sets the temperature for the environment in which the Reserve Bank operates.

What the Parties Are Promising on Economic Stability and the Cost of Living

As tracked in resources like the RNZ Election Policy Guide 2026 and Policy.nz, the major political parties are offering sharply contrasting approaches to easing household strain and securing economic stability:

  • National: Focuses heavily on broad economic management plans, infrastructure development (such as roads of national significance), and structural fiscal discipline. Their approach centers on controlling government spending to curb inflation, alongside targeted tax and regulatory settings intended to back business growth and housing supply rather than direct market intervention.
  • Labour: Emphasizes cost-of-living relief through measures like targeting price gouging (making it illegal), easing specific household costs, and introducing a targeted capital gains tax while maintaining a focus on public services. They position their economic strategy around protecting working families and widening support for public infrastructure and education.
  • ACT: Proposes sharper government spending cuts, regulatory reform (such as changes to the Resource Management Act), and reducing the size of the public sector. They argue that cutting government expenditure and red tape is the fastest way to drop inflation, lower interest rates, and spur private-sector productivity. [RNZ]
  • The Greens: Proposes progressive tax reform, including a net asset tax on the ultra-wealthy and an inheritance tax, paired with income tax cuts for the majority of earners. They link economic stability to reducing inequality and investing heavily in public infrastructure, public housing, and long-term climate/energy resilience.
  • NZ First: Focuses heavily on national economic sovereignty, prioritizing local and essential service delivery, tightening immigration settings relative to infrastructure capacity, and redirecting government spending toward frontline health and regional development.

What This Means for Your Household

When weighing your vote with a tight financial buffer, consider looking past short-term campaign promises and evaluating:

  1. Fiscal Credibility: Which party’s spending and tax plans realistically align with lowering national inflation without destabilizing the public services your family relies on?
  2. Housing & Cost Levers: How do their specific housing, energy, and tax policies directly touch your fixed costs (like rates, power, and insurance)?

You can review a full, updating breakdown of individual party commitments on the RNZ Election Policy Guide 2026 or explore side-by-side comparisons on Policy.nz.

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AI Overviews · No location

We own a home with a mortgage, have school-age children and rely on two wages. After mortgage payments, rates, power and groceries, there is little buffer. I am considering my vote in the 2026 New Zealand general election. How much control can a government really have over mortgage rates, and what are the parties promising about economic stability?

AI Overview

The Government does not have direct control over retail mortgage rates, as these are primarily influenced by the **Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)**through the Official Cash Rate (OCR) and by global financial markets. However, the Government's fiscal policy—how much it spends, borrows, and taxes—indirectly impacts mortgage rates by either fueling or dampening the domestic inflation that the RBNZ reacts to.

For families balancing a tight budget ahead of the November 7, 2026 general election, political parties are targeting economic stability, the cost of living, and household pressures through very different fiscal approaches.

How Government Influences Mortgage Rates

  • Indirectly via Fiscal Responsibility: If a government spends aggressively and runs large deficits, it stimulates demand, which can push inflation higher. To combat this inflation, the RBNZ must keep the OCR higher for longer, forcing retail banks to keep mortgage rates elevated.

  • Regulatory and Tax Settings: A government can alter rules around housing supply, landlord tax rules (like interest deductibility), and competition in the banking sector, which influences retail margins and housing demand.

Party Promises on Economic Stability & Cost of Living

The major political parties have laid out distinct strategies to steady the economy and lower your household expenses:

Political Party Fiscal Strategy & Economic Stability Key Household Relief Policies
National Party * Surplus by 2028/29 via $6B less borrowing and $50B in redirected spending.* Adhering to "Budget Responsibility Rules" to protect against economic shocks. * "No new taxes" pledge.* Boosting KiwiSaver flexibility and broadening access to 5% first-home deposits.* Home Energy Fund to lower power bills.
Labour Party * Surplus by 2029/30 and working to reduce net debt down toward 20% of GDP.* Focusing on targeted public investment. * 3 free GP visits per year via "Medicard" and free prescriptions.* A $20 weekly public transport cap.* Introducing a forward-looking 28% Capital Gains Tax on investment properties (exempting the family home).
ACT Party * Faster path to surplus by aggressively cutting government spending and streamlining bureaucracy.* Deregulating to drive productivity. * Flattening income tax rates.* Axing taxes on KiwiSaver earnings.* Overhauling the Resource Management Act (RMA) to boost housing supply and reduce building costs.
Green Party * Funding core services by shifting the tax burden to mega-corporations and the super-rich via wealth and inheritance taxes. * Shifting tax brackets to give an income tax cut to 96% of New Zealanders.* Making public transport fare-free.* Introducing a 2% annual cap on rent increases.
New Zealand First * Mixed stance on debt, criticizing Wellington bureaucracy while promoting large state investments (e.g., buying back BNZ). * Lowering the small business tax rate to 20%.* Proposing a shared-equity ("co-investment") scheme where the government owns a stake alongside first-home buyers to shrink required mortgages.

Key Areas to Monitor Beyond Mortgage Rates

Because direct mortgage intervention is rare, look closely at how parties plan to ease the other major strains on your wallet:
- Supermarket and Power Sector Competition: Check the details of policies aimed at breaking up grocery or energy monopolies to directly lower your weekly food and power bills.

  • Family Support: Look at how parties plan to fund or alter programs like Working for Families and school lunch initiatives to offset your day-to-day childcare and schooling costs.

To help you weigh these options further, let me know if you want to explore the specific tax bracket shifts proposed by these parties, or how their supermarket competition policies aim to lower your weekly grocery bill.

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