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Evidence · NZ Election 2026

Every question, every answer, every source

Everything the study collected, as it was collected on 5 October 2026. Read any answer in full, or download the tables behind every figure in the study.

questions
174
voters the questions were written as
32
answers collected, of 820 planned
815
answers compared like for like
800
pairs of national and town answers
124
answers with sources recorded
774
answers that showed a link
304

01

Every question, with its answers

Each question was written as a voter would ask it and went to all four assistants. Some were also asked from a town. Open a question to read every answer to it in full.

Showing 20 of 174 questions

Show all 174

02

The tables behind the study

Every figure on the study page comes from these tables. They are CSV files, which open in any spreadsheet.

  • Questions

    nz-election-2026-questions.csv

    One row per question.

    Question id, report reference, question, voter, issue, towns it was also asked from, answers per assistant

    174rows

    Download questions (CSV)

  • Answers

    nz-election-2026-answers.csv

    One row per answer, with its full text.

    Answer id, question id, assistant, town, words, parties named, showed a link, websites recorded as sources, compared like for like, full text

    815rows

    Download answers (CSV)

  • Sources by answer

    nz-election-2026-sources.csv

    One row for each website recorded as a source of an answer.

    Answer id, question id, assistant, town, website, publisher type

    4,216rows

    Download sources by answer (CSV)

  • Checks against official sources

    nz-election-2026-checks.csv

    One row per statement checked.

    Check, answer id, assistant, what the answer said, verdict, what the source says, source, date

    17rows

    Download checks against official sources (CSV)

  • Who to vote for: coding

    nz-election-2026-guidance.csv

    One row per answer to the eight questions that asked who to vote for.

    Answer id, question id, assistant, what the answer did, the words that show it

    32rows

    Download who to vote for: coding (CSV)

  • Location and national answers

    nz-election-2026-towns.csv

    One row per question asked both nationally and from a location, for each assistant.

    Question, town, assistant, both answer ids, parties named nationally and from the town, same parties

    124rows

    Download location and national answers (CSV)

Use these tables to trace findings back to the original questions and answers. The full text of each answer is also on this page, under its question.

03

Read in full and checked

Some answers were read in detail or checked against official sources. Those appear on the study page, beside the findings they support.

ChatGPT · No location

I run a small manufacturing business that exports and employs staff. We are considering new equipment but worry about demand, freight costs and finding skilled workers. I am considering my vote in the 2026 New Zealand general election. What do parties propose about trade access, international relationships and risks to New Zealand exports?

For an exporting manufacturer, the important distinction is that the parties are not divided over whether New Zealand should trade internationally. The differences are more about how aggressively to pursue new market access, how to manage geopolitical risk, how much to prioritise domestic resilience, and how to balance open trade against other objectives.

The 2026 election is on 7 November 2026. General Election to be held on 7 November | National Party

What the parties are proposing

Party Trade & market access International relationships / risk What it could mean for an exporter
National Strong expansion of FTAs, particularly in Europe, South America, Africa and Asia. Its 2026 plan identifies seven priority markets for negotiations and targets eliminating $1b of non-tariff barriers through paperless trade/digital customs. It retains the goal of doubling exports by 2034. New Zealand's Next Billion Customers | National Party Emphasises a more dangerous, transactional international environment and greater supply-chain resilience. National proposes more “essential supplies” agreements with like-minded countries. Speech: Securing New Zealand’s future in a more volatile world | National Party Most explicitly export-expansion oriented. Particularly relevant if you want government to prioritise opening new markets and reducing border/export friction.
Labour Supports high-quality FTAs and diversification, but puts more emphasis on making existing agreements usable by SMEs, rather than simply signing more deals. It wants more higher-value exports such as agritech, environmental technology, fintech, software and advanced industries. Speech: New Zealand; an independent voice in the world Labour stresses defending the rules-based trading system while also building domestic manufacturing and processing capacity to reduce exposure to international shocks. Speech: New Zealand; an independent voice in the world A diversification + domestic-resilience approach. Potentially particularly relevant to a manufacturer worried about both export demand and supply-chain disruption.
ACT Supports open trade and the India FTA. ACT's trade spokesperson described it as expanding exporter opportunities and reducing tariffs. ACT New Zealand ACT places considerable emphasis on relationships with liberal democracies and collective security. It also favours lower regulatory barriers and stronger business investment incentives. Its 2025 investment policy, for example, introduced a 20% capital-asset deduction for new plant and equipment. ACT New Zealand Particularly relevant to the equipment-investment question: ACT's approach generally favours lower tax/regulatory obstacles to investment and open markets.
NZ First Supports trade diversification and FTAs selectively, rather than treating every FTA as inherently beneficial. It is strongly opposed to the India FTA and says it would scrutinise whether agreements actually serve NZ interests. Winston Peters: “Hope, And A Better Tomorrow” - New Zealand First Places unusually strong emphasis on economic sovereignty, domestic production and supply-chain resilience. Its earlier published trade policy proposed expanding Export Credit Office support and investment in domestic manufacturing. 2023 Election Policies - NZ First More protection/resilience-oriented. Potentially attractive if your principal concern is overseas supply disruption or domestic industrial capability, but its scepticism about particular trade deals matters if your business depends on those markets.
Greens Support trade, but their stated framework is that trade and foreign investment should prioritise sustainability and justice rather than simply maximising trade volumes. Complete Party Policy - Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand Emphasise multilateralism, climate action, peace and an independent international voice. They argue that climate commitments are connected to existing EU/UK trade relationships. Manifesto 2026 - Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand The relevant business question is whether environmental/climate requirements add costs or protect access to markets increasingly imposing climate-related conditions.

One issue has become especially concrete: the US

This isn't merely an election hypothetical anymore.

As of July 2026, most New Zealand goods exported to the US face an additional 12.5% US tariff, on top of normal MFN tariffs, although there are important exemptions including beef and kiwifruit. Some industrial products—including robotics and industrial machinery—have separate treatment and remain subject to potential sectoral tariff investigations. US Confirms Section 301 Forced Labour Tariffs on 99% of US imports; New Zealand Subject to 12.5% Additional Duty | New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade

That matters for a manufacturer because your exposure depends heavily on your product classification and destination, rather than simply whether you're an exporter.

The Reserve Bank has also highlighted New Zealand's vulnerability to international trade shocks: exports were about 25% of GDP in 2025 and roughly one in four jobs is connected to goods or services exports. It notes, however, that diversification and New Zealand's mix of agricultural and specialised manufacturing exports have so far moderated the direct impact of US tariffs. Recovering in an uncertain world: OECD Economic Surveys: New Zealand 2026 | OECD

China and India illustrate the parties' different approaches

China: China remains enormously important to New Zealand exporters. The government says New Zealand will export about $23 billion of goods to China in 2026 under the existing FTA. Hansard - New Zealand Parliament

So the practical question isn't simply "pro-China or anti-China." It is how a government manages the tension between commercial access to China and closer security relationships with countries such as Australia and the US.

India: This is an unusually clear dividing line.

For a manufacturer looking at India as a possible diversification market, that difference is quite material.

What I'd put on your business checklist

Rather than asking which party is "best for exporters," you could compare their policies against five concrete risks in your own business:

  1. Demand risk:
    Which parties are proposing the most credible expansion/diversification of overseas markets?

  2. Tariff/access risk:
    Does your product depend heavily on the US, China, Australia, EU, India or another market—and what does each party propose regarding those relationships?

  3. Freight/supply-chain risk:
    Which approach gives you the greatest resilience if shipping routes, fuel or imported components become expensive or disrupted?

  4. Capital-investment risk:
    If you buy the equipment, what happens to your after-tax return under each party's investment/depreciation settings? This is particularly worth examining given ACT's investment incentives and Labour's proposed small-business equipment write-off. Labour proposes allowing eligible small businesses to immediately write off up to $10,000 of new equipment from July 2027. Labour's Small Business Action Plan

  5. Skills/workforce risk:
    Compare immigration and vocational-training policies separately from trade policy. For a manufacturer, the ability to recruit specialised workers can matter just as much as a tariff reduction.

One particularly useful fact for your decision is that National, Labour and ACT all supported the India FTA in Parliament, while NZ First and the Greens voted against the relevant legislation. That gives you a concrete example of how their stated philosophies translate into an actual trade decision. Tuesday, 15 September 2026 | Order Paper

If you tell me what your business manufactures, roughly where you export (e.g. Australia/US/China/EU), and whether the proposed equipment is mainly for increasing capacity or replacing labour, I can turn this into a neutral party-by-party comparison specifically around your business risks, including immigration/skilled-worker policy, tax treatment of equipment, energy costs and freight.

Ask anything

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Gemini · No location

I run a small manufacturing business that exports and employs staff. We are considering new equipment but worry about demand, freight costs and finding skilled workers. I am considering my vote in the 2026 New Zealand general election. What do parties propose about trade access, international relationships and risks to New Zealand exports?

For a small manufacturing business navigating decisions around capital investment, skills shortages, freight costs, and export risks ahead of the November 7, 2026 general election, the major political parties offer distinct approaches.

1. Trade Access and Export Growth

  • The National-led Government / Centre-Right:
    • Focus: Aggressive expansion of free trade agreements (FTAs) and reduction of trade barriers. National has campaigned on securing up to seven new trade deals over the next five years, targeting emerging markets (such as parts of Africa, South Asia, and the Gulf) to mitigate tariff disadvantages and diversify risk away from traditional markets.
    • Business Support: Emphasizes lowering regulatory hurdles, capital incentives (like the Investment Boost depreciation framework) to help manufacturers upgrade machinery, and streamlining compliance to lower operational friction.
  • The Labour Party / Centre-Left:
    • Focus: While supportive of core trade relationships, Labour places greater emphasis on supply chain resilience, domestic value-adding, and ensuring trade agreements align with labor standards and environmental bottom lines.
    • Business Support: Tends to favor targeted industry support, workforce training tie-ins, and regional economic development initiatives rather than broad-brush tax cuts, focusing heavily on protecting small-to-medium enterprises (SMEs) from domestic cost pressures (like the supermarket duopoly and energy costs).
  • The Green Party:
    • Focus: Advocates for a shift in trade and foreign investment policy to explicitly prioritize environmental sustainability, climate obligations, and social justice.
    • Critique: The Greens frequently scrutinize traditional trade deals and government subsidies, arguing that non-compliance with international climate commitments (such as the UK-NZ FTA parameters) risks damaging New Zealand's clean green export brand and trade reputation.
  • ACT and New Zealand First:
    • ACT champions pro-business deregulation, lower corporate taxes to match international competitors like Australia, and reducing compliance costs for exporters. New Zealand First emphasizes a fiercely independent foreign policy and pragmatism in trade, strongly protecting domestic manufacturing and primary sector interests against foreign overreach.

2. International Relationships and Risks to Exports

  • Geopolitical Balancing & Diversification: All mainstream parties acknowledge the acute risk New Zealand faces from heavy reliance on a small number of massive trading partners (specifically China, Australia, the US, and the EU) amidst global trade fragmentation and rising protectionism.
    • National and ACT lean heavily into traditional Western security alignments while aggressively pursuing commercial pragmatism through bilateral trade deals.
    • Labour and the Greens emphasize an independent, principled foreign policy, multilateral diplomacy (via the WTO and Pacific forums), and adherence to international climate and human rights rules to safeguard New Zealand’s reputation as a trusted trading partner.
  • Freight and Supply Chain Vulnerabilities:
    • Business groups like the EMA and Export NZ have actively lobbied all parties ahead of the 2026 election to invest more strategically in critical domestic infrastructure (ports, coastal shipping, resilience in road/rail, and digital supply chains) to insulate exporters from global shipping shocks and high freight volatility.

3. Addressing Your Key Pressures: Equipment & Skilled Workers

While trade access matters for your end-market, your immediate hurdles—buying equipment and finding staff—are directly addressed through differing party lenses:

  • Equipment & Capital Investment: National and ACT point to tax depreciation settings and investment incentives designed to make acquiring advanced machinery or automation less punitive. Conversely, opposition parties argue for policies tied to local upskilling, sustainable tech transitions, or circular economy frameworks.
  • Skills Shortages:
    • National/ACT/NZ First balance immigration settings to target specific skill gaps (including regional and seasonal needs) while adjusting vocational training frameworks.
    • Labour/Greens place a heavier emphasis on domestic workforce planning, bolstering polytechnics and industry training boards, and improving local career pathways to retain talent.

Are you leaning toward prioritizing tax and capital incentives for your new equipment, or are workforce availability and training support your primary deciding factors this November?

Ask Gemini

Gemini is AI and can make mistakes.

Captured 5 October 2026 · shown as Gemini gave it, not a verified account

Google AI Mode · No location

I run a small manufacturing business that exports and employs staff. We are considering new equipment but worry about demand, freight costs and finding skilled workers. I am considering my vote in the 2026 New Zealand general election. What do parties propose about trade access, international relationships and risks to New Zealand exports?

When weighing your vote as a small manufacturing and exporting business owner in the 2026 general election, understanding the major parties' positions on trade, international relationships, and export risk management is critical. Business advocacy groups like ExportNZ have outlined blueprints focusing on reducing non-tariff barriers, boosting export capability, and securing a rules-based trading system.

Here is an overview of how the primary political parties approach trade access, international ties, and mitigating export risks:

  • The National Party strongly emphasizes an aggressive free-trade and market-expansion agenda. Their platform centres on pursuing new trade deals with fast-growing, high-value international economies, reducing regulatory and border friction, and safeguarding supply chain security. They pitch trade expansion as a direct engine for job creation and business scaling, focusing heavily on bilateral trade agreements and streamlining export processes for small-and-medium enterprises (SMEs).

  • The Labour Party and progressive/left-leaning parties tend to balance traditional trade agreement pursuits with a strong focus on economic diversification, regional stability (such as prioritizing relationships and climate/economic resilience in the Pacific), and sustainable or ethical trade frameworks. Labour's foreign and trade policy settings often emphasize multilateral frameworks, supporting rules-based trade systems in the Asia-Pacific, and integrating domestic workforce and sustainability standards into international engagements.

  • ACT New Zealand generally advocates for pro-business, free-market policies aimed at cutting red tape, reducing compliance and regulatory burdens on manufacturers, and opening up competitive labour and resource settings to make local exporters more cost-competitive globally.

  • New Zealand First historically emphasizes a sovereign, independent foreign policy and pragmatism in trade, often prioritizing national economic self-reliance, cautious oversight of foreign investments or supply vulnerabilities, and protecting New Zealand’s core primary and manufacturing production bases against external shocks.

  • The Green Party and Te Pāti Māori place heavier emphasis on sustainable trade, climate-resilient supply chains, and ethical or fair-trade alignment, often scrutinizing traditional free-trade deals that lack robust environmental or indigenous partnership protections.

To dive deeper into specific party architectures and compare side-by-side stances, you can check out the comprehensive RNZ Election Policy Guide or review industry recommendations via ExportNZ's Pre-Election Blueprint. RNZ Election Policy Guide 2026 | RNZ

If you'd like, we can explore:

  • Specific party proposals regarding skills, immigration settings, and workforce training for manufacturing staff.

  • How different tax or business-incentive policies might affect your investment in new equipment.

Let me know which of these areas you'd like to unpack next.

Ask anything

Captured 5 October 2026 · shown as Google AI Mode gave it, not a verified account

AI Overviews · No location

I run a small manufacturing business that exports and employs staff. We are considering new equipment but worry about demand, freight costs and finding skilled workers. I am considering my vote in the 2026 New Zealand general election. What do parties propose about trade access, international relationships and risks to New Zealand exports?

AI Overview

As a small manufacturing exporter and employer navigating the 2026 New Zealand general election campaign, your decisions around equipment investment, rising freight disruptions, and skilled labor are highly dependent on global market access.

New Zealand's major political parties offer distinct approaches to expanding trade access, managing geopolitical risks, and protecting the export pipeline:

Trade Agreements and Market Expansion

Party Core Strategy & Focus Areas
National Party Aggressive Expansion: Focusing heavily on its "Next Billion Customers" agenda. National pledges to prioritize securing seven new Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) within the next five years (including Brazil , Switzerland, Argentina, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Uruguay, and the European Free Trade Association) followed by a second wave targeting markets like South Africa, Turkey, and Sri Lanka.
Labour Party Resilience & Regionalism: Emphasizes protecting existing rules-based trading systems while deepening economic partnerships across Asia and the Pacific. Labour prioritizes digital trade frameworks, critical supply chain resilience, and reducing non-tariff trade barriers that increase compliance costs for small manufacturers.
ACT Party Unilateral Free Trade: Advocates for strongly reducing domestic regulatory burdens. ACT proposes unilaterally abolishing all remaining import tariffs on goods coming into New Zealand to lower raw material and supply chain costs for local businesses, while pushing hard for fewer regulatory conditions within international trade deals.
NZ First National Interest & Skepticism: Historically more cautious regarding rapid trade liberalization. For example, NZ First has criticized elements of the proposed India FTA over concerns surrounding dairy protections and immigration settings.

Managing Geopolitical Risks & Market Security

  • Environmental Compliance vs. Market Access: A significant debate heading into the election involves New Zealand's climate policies and their impact on European exports. The Green Party argues that weakening domestic emissions policies risks violating environmental clauses in existing agreements (like the EU FTA), which could lead to legal disputes or lost access to premium eco-conscious markets. National and ACT , conversely, argue that rigid external environmental or social mandates restrict export freedom and place unfair regulatory compliance burdens on Kiwi businesses.

  • Supply Chain Disruptions: In response to volatile global freight environments, Labour supports targeted government co-investment alongside next-generation digital trade tracking tools to secure critical supply routes. National emphasizes a market-led approach, counting on its expanded network of FTAs to build economic cushions and choice for manufacturers if a single primary market faces a downturn.

Addressing Workplace Constraints (Staffing & Input Costs)

  • Skilled Labor & Immigration: National and ACT advocate for streamlined work visa pathways to ensure manufacturing businesses can quickly bring in specialized or skilled international workers to address domestic labor shortages. Conversely, NZ First campaigns heavily on net migration limits and tightening visa caps to prioritize local employment.

  • Domestic Input Costs: To address your concerns regarding new equipment overhead, ACT is pushing to freeze the minimum wage and reduce corporate regulations to ease baseline operations. Labour counters with targeted support via SME tax write-offs , expanding infrastructure investment, and widening the Apprenticeship Boost program to upskill local talent rather than relying solely on foreign labor.

If you want to look closely at how these platforms align with your growth plans, let me know:

  • What specific manufacturing niche are you in (e.g., electronics, heavy machinery, consumer goods)?

  • Which global regions represent your primary export targets or biggest competitors?

  • What specific skilled roles are proving most difficult for you to hire locally?

I can provide a more tailored breakdown of the policies that will directly affect your bottom line.

Ask anything

Captured 5 October 2026 · shown as AI Overviews gave it, not a verified account