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Evidence · NZ Election 2026

Every question, every answer, every source

Everything the study collected, as it was collected on 5 October 2026. Read any answer in full, or download the tables behind every figure in the study.

questions
174
voters the questions were written as
32
answers collected, of 820 planned
815
answers compared like for like
800
pairs of national and town answers
124
answers with sources recorded
774
answers that showed a link
304

01

Every question, with its answers

Each question was written as a voter would ask it and went to all four assistants. Some were also asked from a town. Open a question to read every answer to it in full.

Showing 20 of 174 questions

Show all 174

02

The tables behind the study

Every figure on the study page comes from these tables. They are CSV files, which open in any spreadsheet.

  • Questions

    nz-election-2026-questions.csv

    One row per question.

    Question id, report reference, question, voter, issue, towns it was also asked from, answers per assistant

    174rows

    Download questions (CSV)

  • Answers

    nz-election-2026-answers.csv

    One row per answer, with its full text.

    Answer id, question id, assistant, town, words, parties named, showed a link, websites recorded as sources, compared like for like, full text

    815rows

    Download answers (CSV)

  • Sources by answer

    nz-election-2026-sources.csv

    One row for each website recorded as a source of an answer.

    Answer id, question id, assistant, town, website, publisher type

    4,216rows

    Download sources by answer (CSV)

  • Checks against official sources

    nz-election-2026-checks.csv

    One row per statement checked.

    Check, answer id, assistant, what the answer said, verdict, what the source says, source, date

    17rows

    Download checks against official sources (CSV)

  • Who to vote for: coding

    nz-election-2026-guidance.csv

    One row per answer to the eight questions that asked who to vote for.

    Answer id, question id, assistant, what the answer did, the words that show it

    32rows

    Download who to vote for: coding (CSV)

  • Location and national answers

    nz-election-2026-towns.csv

    One row per question asked both nationally and from a location, for each assistant.

    Question, town, assistant, both answer ids, parties named nationally and from the town, same parties

    124rows

    Download location and national answers (CSV)

Use these tables to trace findings back to the original questions and answers. The full text of each answer is also on this page, under its question.

03

Read in full and checked

Some answers were read in detail or checked against official sources. Those appear on the study page, beside the findings they support.

ChatGPT · No location

I've recently been made redundant after years in the same industry. I have rent to pay, and I'm unsure whether to retrain or keep looking for similar work. I am considering my vote in the 2026 New Zealand general election. What evidence is there behind party claims that their economic policies will create jobs?

Your situation is exactly the kind of personal economic circumstance that often makes election claims feel very concrete: “Will this policy actually create jobs I could get, or is it a broader growth claim?” A useful way to assess party promises is to separate mechanisms, evidence, and uncertainty.

For New Zealand’s 2026 election, the main parties’ jobs arguments generally fall into a few categories. The evidence behind them varies considerably. Policies for Party vote - NZ Election 2026 - Policy.nz

1. “Grow the economy and businesses will hire” (National-led approach)

Claim: Lower costs for businesses, infrastructure investment, regulatory changes, and stronger private-sector activity will increase employment.

Evidence supporting the mechanism:

  • There is broad economic evidence that sustained GDP growth is usually associated with employment growth over time.
  • Investment in infrastructure can create direct construction jobs and indirect jobs through suppliers.
  • Business confidence and investment conditions can affect hiring decisions.

Limits of the evidence:

  • Growth does not automatically translate into jobs for every displaced worker or every region.
  • The types of jobs created may not match the skills of people leaving declining industries.
  • Timing matters: investment projects may take years to affect employment.

The current government has pointed to improving fiscal forecasts and expected growth as evidence its economic approach is working, while critics argue households are still facing pressure and unemployment concerns. New Zealand sees smaller budget deficit before election

2. “Government investment creates jobs directly” (Labour and Green arguments)

Claim: Public investment in areas such as infrastructure, health, housing, apprenticeships, clean energy, and technology can create employment while improving productivity.

Evidence supporting the mechanism:

  • Government-funded projects can create immediate demand for workers.
  • Training and apprenticeship programmes can reduce skills mismatches.
  • Public investment can raise productivity if it improves transport, housing supply, energy systems, or workforce capability.

Limits of the evidence:

  • Government spending must be funded somehow; taxes, borrowing, or reduced spending elsewhere can affect the overall impact.
  • Some projects create temporary employment rather than permanent jobs.
  • The quality of job creation matters: wages, security, location, and career pathways are important.

Labour has argued for employment-focused measures alongside cost-of-living policies, including skills and economic development initiatives. NZ opposition leader Hipkins says Labour focused on tackling cost of living woes

3. “Lower taxes and fewer regulations create jobs” (ACT and National arguments)

Claim: Reducing regulatory barriers and improving incentives for investment encourages firms to expand and employ more people.

Evidence supporting the mechanism:

  • Businesses are more likely to invest when expected returns improve.
  • Excessive compliance costs can discourage some investment.

Limits of the evidence:

  • Firms may use improved profitability to increase dividends, pay down debt, automate, or import more rather than hire locally.
  • The size of employment effects depends on the specific policy and economic conditions.

4. “A better-trained workforce creates jobs” (cross-party area)

Most parties agree in principle that skills matter, though they differ on how to deliver them. Policies for Party vote - NZ Election 2026 - Policy.nz

Evidence generally supports:

  • Training can improve employment outcomes when it is linked to actual labour shortages.
  • Generic retraining programmes are less effective when they are not connected to employers or realistic job openings.

For someone made redundant after years in one industry, this is probably the most relevant question: does the policy create demand for your existing skills, or does it help you transition into a sector where employers are actually hiring?

What the research says about “job creation” claims generally

When parties say “this will create jobs”, economists usually look for:

  1. How many jobs?
    A credible claim should specify numbers, timeframes, and assumptions.

  2. What kind of jobs?
    Permanent vs temporary; skilled vs entry-level; private vs government-funded.

  3. Where are the workers coming from?
    New entrants, migrants, unemployed people, or workers moving from other industries?

  4. What is the counterfactual?
    Would those jobs have existed anyway because of normal economic recovery?

  5. What independent modelling exists?
    Treasury analysis, independent economic reviews, and labour-market data generally carry more weight than party estimates alone.

Applying this to your decision: retrain or keep looking?

A useful framework is not “which party creates jobs?” but:

  • Is your old industry shrinking permanently or just in a downturn?
  • Are your skills transferable? (project management, compliance, sales, technical knowledge, customer relationships, operations, leadership)
  • Are there shortages in adjacent industries?
  • Would a short qualification unlock work, or would it require a multi-year career change?

New Zealand’s labour market has recently been affected by slower growth, high interest rates, and uneven recovery, which makes the distinction between “economic growth” and “your next job” particularly important. Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update 2026 | The Treasury New Zealand

For comparing party claims directly, a useful starting point is a policy comparison source that separates what parties say from evidence about whether policies work: Policy.nz 2026 election policy comparison

If you tell me what industry you were in, your region, and whether you’d prefer a similar role or a career change, I can help map the economic claims to the kinds of jobs that are actually likely to be available.

Ask anything

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Captured 5 October 2026 · shown as ChatGPT gave it, not a verified account

Gemini · No location

I've recently been made redundant after years in the same industry. I have rent to pay, and I'm unsure whether to retrain or keep looking for similar work. I am considering my vote in the 2026 New Zealand general election. What evidence is there behind party claims that their economic policies will create jobs?

Navigating a redundancy is a stressful experience, especially when dealing with the immediate pressure of rent and daily living costs. Deciding whether to retrain or look for a similar role is a tough crossroads, and it is natural to look at the broader economic landscape and political promises for answers.

When political parties claim their economic policies will create jobs ahead of the 2026 New Zealand general election, their arguments rely on different economic theories and mechanisms. Looking behind the marketing slogans reveals distinct approaches, along with the trade-offs and evidence economists use to evaluate them.

1. Supply-Side and Pro-Growth Policies (e.g., National and ACT)

  • The Claim: Policies focused on business incentives, deregulation, infrastructure investment, and keeping taxes low will stimulate private-sector growth, leading to hundreds of thousands of new jobs.
  • The Mechanism: Proponents argue that cutting red tape (such as reforming the Resource Management Act to ease building constraints), offering tax incentives for business investment (like the Investment Boost), and avoiding new taxes give businesses the confidence and capital to expand, hire, and lift wages.
  • The Evidence & Criticisms:
    • Pro: Streamlining development and reducing compliance costs can lower barriers for businesses to start or scale up projects, which theoretically requires more labor.
    • Con: Critics and independent economic commentators often point out that supply-side tax cuts and business incentives do not guarantee immediate job growth. Businesses may use capital windfalls for automation, debt reduction, or shareholder returns rather than immediate hiring, particularly if consumer demand remains sluggish.

2. Public Investment and Targeted Support (e.g., Labour and the Greens)

  • The Claim: Direct government investment in infrastructure, public services, housing, and green industries creates stable employment and builds long-term economic resilience.
  • The Mechanism: This approach relies on Keynesian economic principles—when private-sector demand or confidence dips, government spending steps in to fill the gap. Policies often include targeted support for apprenticeships, funding for health and education workforces, and investments in regional or sustainable industries.
  • The Evidence & Criticisms:
    • Pro: Direct public investment has a tangible, immediate effect on employment in targeted sectors (like construction, healthcare, and education) and can prevent skills drain by keeping people in work.
    • Con: Opponents argue that heavy public spending can fuel inflation, require higher borrowing or new forms of revenue (such as capital gains or wealth taxes), and crowd out private investment if not managed carefully.

Practical Considerations for Your Situation

While evaluating party policies is important for your ballot, your immediate decision involves balancing your financial runway (rent and expenses) with your long-term career goals:

  • Looking for Similar Work First: If you have deep experience in your industry, job hunting immediately can test whether your skills are still in demand locally without requiring upfront training costs. Many industries experience localized labor shortages even during broader economic tightening.
  • Retraining and Upskilling: If your previous industry is contracting structurally, retraining through subsidized short courses, industry-recognized certificates, or targeted study can pivot your experience into a growing sector (such as trades, healthcare support, or tech-adjacent roles).

Are you leaning toward a specific industry or retraining option, or would you like to explore what financial support options might be immediately available to bridge the gap while you decide?

Ask Gemini

Gemini is AI and can make mistakes.

Captured 5 October 2026 · shown as Gemini gave it, not a verified account

Google AI Mode · No location

I've recently been made redundant after years in the same industry. I have rent to pay, and I'm unsure whether to retrain or keep looking for similar work. I am considering my vote in the 2026 New Zealand general election. What evidence is there behind party claims that their economic policies will create jobs?

First, I am really sorry to hear about your redundancy. Finding yourself out of work after years in the same industry—especially with rent and everyday costs weighing on you—is a massive and stressful shock.

When looking at the 2026 New Zealand general election, evaluating how political parties claim their economic policies will create jobs requires separating campaign promises from what independent economic evidence tells us actually works. Independent economic institutions in New Zealand—such as the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) and the Productivity Commission—frequently analyze these claims.

The evidence behind the major economic and job-creation approaches breaks down into distinct categories:

  • Supply-Side and Tax Cuts (e.g., National and ACT approaches)
  • Claim: Lowering company taxes, reducing regulation, and cutting public sector spending or compliance costs will free up capital for private businesses to hire.
  • Evidence: Economic consensus suggests that while reducing business compliance or tax burdens can marginally improve business confidence, it does not automatically translate to a surge in hiring. Independent forecasters often note that businesses hire when there is demand for their goods and services, not just because they have extra cash from tax adjustments. If consumer spending is sluggish due to high living costs, tax cuts for firms may go toward repairing balance sheets rather than expanding headcounts.
  • Government-Led Investment and Direct Job Guarantees (e.g., Labour and Green Party approaches)
  • Claim: Direct state intervention—such as infrastructure spending, targeted training subsidies (like expansions to the Apprenticeship Boost), or public job guarantee schemes (such as ecosystem regeneration or nursing guarantees)—directly creates employment.
  • Evidence: Publicly funded job schemes have an immediate, measurable impact because the government is directly acting as the employer or subsidizing the wage. However, economists debate the long-term sustainability of these roles. Independent economic analysis often flags that while these programs provide a vital bridge during downturns, they can cause fiscal strain or crowd out private sector labor if not tied to genuine long-term productivity growth.
  • Boosting Productivity and Innovation (Cross-party focus, but varying execution)
  • Claim: Funding R&D, lifting educational attainment, or reforming the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) will pivot New Zealand toward high-value jobs.
  • Evidence: The NZIER has repeatedly pointed out that New Zealand’s core economic bottleneck is a domestic productivity problem —specifically, a lack of capital, technology, and capability flowing into high-performing sectors, rather than just a lack of surface-level jobs. Economists generally agree that policies addressing skills diffusion, infrastructure, and R&D have a stronger empirical track record for sustainable, high-wage job creation, but these policies take years (often multiple political cycles) to show results, offering little immediate relief for rent next month.

Navigating Your Decision

If you are weighing whether to retrain or keep searching, you may want to look at platforms like Policy.nz to see how specific parties propose supporting displaced workers through targeted retraining grants versus immediate benefit or jobseeker support.

For your immediate situation, remember that Work and Income New Zealand (MSD) provides support for people recently made redundant (including the Jobseeker Support or emergency housing/accommodation supplements if you are facing severe hardship paying rent). You can review entitlements on the Work and Income website.

Ask anything

Captured 5 October 2026 · shown as Google AI Mode gave it, not a verified account

AI Overviews · No location

I've recently been made redundant after years in the same industry. I have rent to pay, and I'm unsure whether to retrain or keep looking for similar work. I am considering my vote in the 2026 New Zealand general election. What evidence is there behind party claims that their economic policies will create jobs?

AI Overview

Facing redundancy and the pressure of rent is an incredibly stressful situation, and it makes complete sense that you are trying to weigh your immediate survival against your long-term career path.

The major political parties contesting the 2026 New Zealand General Election approach job creation from fundamentally different economic philosophies. When analyzing the evidence behind their claims, economists generally evaluate how directly a policy creates employment versus how much it relies on general economic conditions.

Here is a breakdown of the evidence, mechanisms, and theories behind each party’s job-creation platform for 2026.

1. Direct Public Investment & Subsidies

These policies provide the most immediate and verifiable evidence of job creation because the government directly funds or guarantees the positions.

  • The Labour Party: Labour is campaigning on targeted public investment, including the New Zealand Future Fund to seed infrastructure and innovation. They also claim direct employment via a Graduate Nurse Job Guarantee and the expansion of the Apprenticeship Boost program.

  • The Evidence: Programs like the Apprenticeship Boost have historical data showing high retention and direct job outcomes. However, critics and center-right economists argue that large-scale government funding relies heavily on tax revenue—such as Labour's proposed 28% Capital Gains Tax —which they argue can inadvertently stifle private-sector job growth by reducing available business capital.

  • The Green Party & Te Pāti Māori: The Greens are proposing a Ministry of Green Works alongside a job guarantee program specifically focused on ecosystem regeneration.

  • The Evidence: Direct green employment creates clear, localized jobs in conservation and infrastructure. The economic critique is that these roles are entirely reliant on state funding (financed via a proposed wealth tax), meaning they do not necessarily reflect self-sustaining market demand.

2. Supply-Side Deregulation & Private Sector Growth

These policies rely on the theory that if you make it cheaper and easier to run a business, businesses will naturally expand and hire more people.

  • The National Party: In National's Budget 2026 and campaign launch, they claim their economic plan will create 220,000 jobs over the next four years by achieving a budget surplus by 2028/29, reducing government borrowing, and cutting regulatory red tape.

  • The Evidence: Business confidence and deregulation (like rewrites to the Resource Management Act) historically correlate with private-sector expansion. However, the exact figure of 220,000 jobs relies heavily on macroeconomic forecasting models. Critics note that general economic growth does not automatically guarantee job placement for workers displaced from specific industries.

  • The ACT Party: ACT argues that slashing the public service (consolidating 43 departments into 19) and cutting business compliance costs will supercharge private sector hiring.

  • The Evidence: While reducing corporate compliance burdens frees up capital that can be used for hiring, it simultaneously creates immediate job losses in the public sector. The long-term net job creation depends heavily on how quickly the private sector absorbs those displaced workers.

3. Economic Protectionism & Market Restructuring

  • New Zealand First: NZ First focuses heavily on protecting domestic industries and limiting migration to ensure New Zealand workers get first priority for available vacancies.
  • The Evidence: Restricting the labor supply can successfully reduce competition for local workers in specific sectors. However, economists caution that if severe skill shortages exist, limiting migration can cause businesses to downscale operations rather than hire locally, which can slow overall job creation.

Direct Comparison of Job Creation Approaches

Party Core Mechanism Directness of Job Creation Economic Risk / Trade-off
Labour State-backed funds, apprentice subsidies, and graduate guarantees. High (Immediate targeted roles) High tax burden could slow private investment.
National Fiscal restraint, deregulation, and boosting business confidence. Indirect (Relies on market expansion) Growth relies on volatile global and domestic conditions.
Greens State-funded "Green Works" and ecosystem jobs. High (Guaranteed environmental roles) Fully reliant on continuous wealth-tax revenue.
ACT Slashing public sector size and corporate regulations. Indirect (Private growth via public cuts) Causes immediate public sector job losses.
NZ First Restricting immigration and funding regional assets. Moderate (Protects existing local roles) Risk of driving up business costs or stalling growth.

Deciding to Retrain vs. Looking for Similar Work

While you consider how to vote, your immediate priority is your rent and financial stability. Keep in mind that political promises take months or years to translate into actual market roles.

  1. Check Your Redundancy Rights: Ensure your employer followed a fair process. You can review your legal protections through Employment New Zealand.

  2. Immediate Assistance: Apply for the Jobseeker Support benefit through Work and Income (WINZ) immediately. It may not cover all your expenses, but it provides a baseline while you plan your next step.

  3. The AI Paradox in the 2026 Market: Employment data from late 2026 indicates a sharp shift in hiring practices. Recent studies show that 24% of NZ employers now list AI and automated skills as an entry-level requirement. If your old industry is shrinking due to automation, short-term upskilling in digital tools may be necessary even if you choose to stay in a similar field.

To help tailor this, what industry were you in, and do you have any payout or emergency savings to sustain you short-term? Knowing if you're leaning toward a specific field can help me check for any current government-funded retraining subsidies available right now.

Ask anything

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