Evidence · NZ Election 2026 · Edition 4

Every question, every answer, every source

All 174 questions and the 776 answers produced on 19 October 2026. For the other 44 planned combinations, Google produced no AI Overview or AI Mode answer.

questions
174
answers saved
776
collected
19 October 2026

01

Every question, with its answers

Each question was written as a voter would ask it and went to all four assistants. Some were also asked from a town. Open a question to read every answer to it in full.

Showing 20 of 174 questions

02

The tables behind the study

Every figure on the study page comes from these tables. They are CSV files, which open in any spreadsheet.

  • Questions

    questions.csv

    One row per question, unchanged since 5 October.

    id, text, reference, axes, collectionSettings, enabled

  • Answers

    answers.csv

    One row per saved answer, with its complete original text.

    id, questionId, assistant, collectionSetting, askedFrom, text, words

  • Sources by answer

    source-associations.csv

    One row per website associated with an answer; repeated citations count once.

    answer id, question id, assistant, domain, publisher

  • Checks against official sources

    checks.csv

    One row per selected statement and assistant, including those where the statement was not made.

    checkId, claimToTest, category, answerId, questionId, assistant, assertionPresent, assertion, paragraphs, verdict, evidence, whatTheSourceSays, checkedOn, assessment

  • Who to vote for: what each answer did

    behaviour-coding.csv

    One row per voting-guidance answer read in full, with each behaviour marked. Behaviours overlap; the original answers supply the evidence.

    prompt_id, draft_id, platform, region, explicit_choice_boundary, conditional_party_or_bloc_alignment, prioritised_shortlist, elicits_additional_user_information, unconditional_single_party_vote_instruction, excerpts, rationale, reviewer, reviewed_on, answerId

  • Location and national answers

    place-pairs.csv

    One row per national and location pair in this edition.

    question id, assistant, place, national answer id, place answer id, national entities, place entities, same entities

  • Changes between editions

    party-change-tables.csv

    One row per answer and earlier edition, with the parties named then and now.

    earlier_edition, earlier_result_id, current_result_id, prompt_id, platform, region, draft_id, block, scenario_id, scenario, issue, priority, same_text, same_party_set, earlier_parties, current_parties, added, removed

  • Changes across editions

    trajectory-tables.csv

    One row per pair of editions, with how many of the same 776 answers changed their party line-up.

    earlier_edition, current_edition, denominator, changed_all17, changed_seven

  • Party counts by edition

    party-count-tables.csv

    One row per comparison, edition, assistant and party, with the answers naming the party.

    panel, edition, platform, entity_id, party, numerator, denominator

  • Parties entering and leaving answers

    party-mention-flows.csv

    One row per party and assistant: answers that gained, lost or kept the party since 16 October.

    entity_id, platform, denominator, earlier, current, gained, lost, retained

  • Parties named by issue

    topic-presence-tables.csv

    One row per issue and party, with the answers naming the party.

    issue, entity_id, numerator, denominator

  • Location comparisons by edition

    regional-tables.csv

    One row per national and location pair, comparison and edition.

    panel, edition, prompt_id, platform, region, draft_id, block, scenario_id, scenario, issue, priority, complete, national_result_id, location_result_id, same_party_set

  • Answer length by assistant

    platform-tables.csv

    One row per comparison, edition and assistant, with answer length and the answers naming all six parties in Parliament.

    panel, edition, platform, answers, median_words, all_six_parliamentary

  • Voting guidance changes between editions

    guidance-change-tables.csv

    One row per voting-guidance answer and behaviour, on 16 and 19 October.

    draft_id, platform, measure, earlier_result_id, result_id, earlier, current, changed

  • What changed for each voter

    case-assessments.csv

    One row per voter: what changed in the answer to their main question.

    case, transition, earlier_quote, quote, assessment

  • Statements selected for checking

    check-register.csv

    One row per statement selected for checking, with why it was chosen and its primary source.

    checkId, claimToTest, category, whyChecked, primarySourceUrl, answerId

  • Answers paired with Edition 3

    pairs.csv

    One row per answer, with the 16 October answer to the same question, assistant and location.

    earlierAnswerId, answerId, questionId, assistant, collectionSetting, askedFrom

  • Source capture by answer

    sources.csv

    One row per answer, with whether its sources were captured and the websites recorded.

    answerId, capture, domains, urls, literalUrls, scope

  • Websites by reach

    source-reach-tables.csv

    One row per website, with the answers associated with it.

    domain, answers, denominator

  • Websites by issue

    topic-source-tables.csv

    One row per issue and website, with the answers associated with it.

    issue, domain, answers, denominator

  • Party matches reviewed in context

    party-identity-decisions.csv

    One row per possible party match read in context, with whether it counted and why.

    result_id, party, include, state, reason, reviewer, reviewed_on, review_basis, contexts

  • Parties found in each answer

    codings.csv

    One row per answer, party and comparison, with whether the party counted and the passage that shows it.

    comparisonId, answerId, entityId, kind, measure, counted, quote, reason, evidence

  • Comparisons each answer is in

    memberships.csv

    One row per answer and comparison.

    comparisonId, answerId, rowKey, included

  • Claims Onsomble recorded

    raw-native-claims.csv

    One row per claim, with the parties it is about and its stance on each.

    claimId, claimText, quote, stance, platform, region, promptId, brands, sources, drivers, sourceResultId

  • Answers read in full

    semantic-review-ledger.csv

    One row per answer and question a reviewer read in full, with the decision and the passage.

    result_id, dimension, state, decision, rationale, excerpt, reviewer, reviewed_on

  • Passages quoted in the analysis

    report-evidence.csv

    One row per answer passage the analysis quotes, with its reading.

    key, answerId, interpretation, text

  • Analysis findings

    findings.csv

    One row per finding in the analysis, with its figure and the table it comes from.

    id, value, denominator, statement, summary, caveat, evidence, reportFile

Use these tables to trace findings back to the original questions and answers. The full text of each answer is also on this page, under its question.

03

Read in full and checked

Some answers were read in detail or checked against official sources. Those appear on the study page, beside the findings they support.

ChatGPT · No location

I'm an eligible New Zealand voter living overseas and considering returning. I am comparing job opportunities, housing costs and New Zealand's international outlook. I am considering my vote in the 2026 New Zealand general election. How do parties' housing policies affect people returning to New Zealand to rent or buy?

New Zealand's 2026 election: how housing policies affect returning New Zealanders

If you're an eligible New Zealand voter living overseas and considering returning, the housing question is more than whether house prices will rise or fall. It is about how quickly you could find a rental, what share of your income you would spend on housing, whether buying would be realistic, and what tax or lending rules would apply when you return.

For the 2026 general election, it helps to compare parties across four areas:

  • Renting: rental supply, tenant protections, rent increases and the incentives for landlords to provide homes.
  • Buying: house-building, first-home assistance, mortgage lending rules and property taxes.
  • Returning from overseas: how overseas income, savings, residency status and time away affect your ability to rent or buy.
  • Long-term outlook: infrastructure, construction costs, population growth, migration and the wider economy, all of which affect housing demand and supply.

One important distinction: a party's announcement or campaign promise is not the same as an enacted policy, and neither guarantees a particular change in rents or house prices.

1. What the main parties are proposing

The following comparison focuses on the parties' published 2026 positions as of 18 October 2026. The election is scheduled for 7 November 2026. Policies for Party vote - NZ Election 2026The main parties vying to form New Zealand's next government

Will National Party Finish 2nd in New Zealand's 2026 Election?

National

More access to home ownership; market-led supply

National proposes widening eligibility for First Home Loans with deposits as low as 5%, raising the income cap to $300,000 for all applicants. Its broader housing approach emphasises enabling development and reducing planning barriers. National is backing first home buyersBudget 2026: Securing New Zealand's Future

  • If renting: More housing construction could expand rental choices over time, but the proposal does not directly cap rent increases.

  • If buying: A smaller deposit requirement could help returning first-home buyers who have sufficient income to service a mortgage but limited savings.

  • Watch out for: Eligibility rules, lender approval and property prices. A lower deposit does not necessarily mean a more affordable mortgage.

    Sources: First-home buyer policy · Housing and infrastructure programme

South Island Election Conference 2026

Labour

Check the detailed housing commitments against the final policy release

Labour's published 2026 platform emphasises cost-of-living relief, economic growth and infrastructure. Its full policy catalogue is the place to check the precise housing commitments and eligibility criteria before comparing them with National's new deposit proposal. Labour's 2026 Election PoliciesLabour's 2026 Election Policies

  • If renting: Check for specific commitments on rental supply, tenant protections and housing assistance rather than assuming broader cost-of-living measures will lower rents.

  • If buying: Check its current position on first-home support, development rules and property-investment tax settings.

  • Watch out for: The difference between a policy already implemented by a previous Labour government and a commitment Labour would make if elected.

    Source: Labour's 2026 election policies

Green Party NZ (@NZGreens) on X

Green Party

Stronger renter protections; more public housing

The Greens' housing plan proposes a 2% cap on annual rent increases, reversing no-cause evictions, an independently enforced Rental Warrant of Fitness, tens of thousands of additional public homes and reversing landlord tax changes made by National. Greens announce plan to end homelessness & fix housing crisisManifesto 2026

  • If renting: A rent cap could make increases more predictable, while stronger tenancy protections could improve stability.

  • If buying: More public housing and changes to property-investment tax rules are intended to reduce pressure on housing as an investment asset and improve access for owner-occupiers.

  • Watch out for: How rent controls interact with rental supply, maintenance and landlords' decisions. The actual outcomes depend on policy design and implementation.

    Sources: Greens' housing plan · 2026 manifesto

New Zealand Legislative Election Winner 2026 Odds | Polymarket

ACT

Landlord incentives; private-sector supply

ACT proposes abolishing rental-property loss ring-fencing, allowing eligible rental losses incurred after the policy takes effect to be offset against other taxable income. It has also supported the government's housing-growth and planning reforms. ACT New ZealandACT New Zealand

  • If renting: ACT's approach aims to encourage rental investment and supply rather than directly limit rent increases.

  • If buying: A larger private rental market may offer more choices for people who are not yet ready to buy; its effect on purchase prices is uncertain.

  • Watch out for: Whether tax incentives translate into additional homes, rather than mainly changing the after-tax returns on existing properties.

    Sources: ACT's rental tax proposal · ACT on housing assistance

New Zealand legislative election winner? Predictions & Od... 2026 | Polymarket

New Zealand First

Development with infrastructure; intervention to improve housing access

New Zealand First's October 2026 proposal would require fast-tracked residential developments to have necessary infrastructure approvals, including roads, water and wastewater, before approval. Its earlier housing platform also supported public housing, prefabricated construction and restoring landlord tax deductibility. NZFirst Policy Announcement: Changes to Fast-Track Residential Approvals2023 Election Policies

  • If renting: Infrastructure requirements may help ensure new neighbourhoods are liveable, though additional approval requirements could affect the pace of construction.

  • If buying: More development near population centres could improve supply if projects proceed.

  • Watch out for: Whether infrastructure requirements can be met promptly and how quickly proposed developments translate into completed homes.

    Sources: October 2026 housing announcement · Earlier housing policy

These are different policy approaches, not a ranking. The official Policy.nz 2026 housing comparison is also useful for checking smaller parties' proposals on land taxes, rental standards, social housing and first-home assistance. Policies for Party vote - NZ Election 2026Policies for Party vote - NZ Election 2026

2. What these policies mean for your return

The practical effects depend on whether you plan to rent initially, buy as soon as you arrive, or rent while you establish a job and savings history.

If you plan to rent first

The key distinction is between policies that limit what a landlord can charge and policies that try to increase the number of available rentals.

  • Rent caps and tenancy protections may give you greater predictability and security.
  • Incentives for landlords and faster development aim to encourage supply, but the effect on rents depends on how many additional homes are actually provided.
  • Public housing policies generally matter most to people who meet the relevant eligibility and housing-need criteria; returning to New Zealand alone does not guarantee access.

If you want to buy soon after returning

Pay particular attention to first-home loan eligibility, the deposit you can use, mortgage servicing requirements and the effect of property taxes.

  • National's proposed wider 5% deposit scheme may be relevant if you qualify.
  • More construction and changes to planning rules could expand choice over time.
  • Policies affecting landlords and investors may change the relative incentives to rent out or buy property, but they do not mechanically determine house prices.

If your job is not yet secured

Your employment plans could matter as much as the housing policies. A lender may assess the stability of your income, existing debts, deposit and ability to meet repayments. If you are starting a new job, ask lenders what employment evidence they require before assuming you can borrow a particular amount.

3. The international outlook matters too

Housing policies do not operate in isolation. When comparing parties, consider these wider influences:

  • Jobs and wages: Higher, sustainable incomes can improve mortgage affordability, but wage growth alone will not solve a shortage of homes.
  • Migration and population growth: More people can increase demand for both rentals and purchases. Whether that translates into higher housing costs depends partly on construction and infrastructure capacity.
  • Construction and infrastructure: Planning reform may allow more homes to be built, but skilled labour, materials, financing, transport and water infrastructure also affect delivery.
  • Interest rates and the global economy: Mortgage costs depend on financial conditions as well as domestic policy. International economic shocks can affect jobs, borrowing costs and confidence.

For context, the government's May 2026 Budget housing programme included a $400 million fund intended to encourage councils to support housing growth and funding for an additional 1,800–2,250 social and other homes over three years from 2028/29. These are announced programme commitments, not evidence that all the homes have already been delivered. Budget 2026 – for the housing and urban system - Ministry for Cities, Environment, Regions and Transport (Formerly Te Tūāpapa Kura KāingaBudget 2026: Securing New Zealand's Future

4. Don't overlook your returning-resident finances

Some rules affect you independently of which party forms the next government.

5. How to compare the parties against your own priorities

Rather than focusing on a single headline policy, use these questions when reading each party's full manifesto.

Your priority What to check
Affordable rent immediately Rent regulation, tenancy security and rental assistance
More rental choices New housing supply, landlord tax rules and construction incentives
Buying with a smaller deposit First-home loan eligibility, deposit thresholds and lending rules
Lower purchase prices over time Housing construction, zoning, infrastructure and property tax settings
Stable long-term housing Public and community housing, rental standards and security of tenure
Stronger job prospects Wage growth, infrastructure investment, productivity and international trade

My main takeaway: If you're returning without a property or job already lined up, distinguish between policies that could help you secure housing immediately and those intended to change housing supply over several years. Then compare those commitments with each party's employment, tax and economic policies. The likely effect on your own finances depends on the interaction of all of them, not just the party's headline housing pledge.

For the next step, the most useful question is: would you expect to rent for at least a year after returning, or would you aim to buy within your first year? That changes which of these policies are most relevant to examine closely.

Ask anything

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Gemini · No location

I'm an eligible New Zealand voter living overseas and considering returning. I am comparing job opportunities, housing costs and New Zealand's international outlook. I am considering my vote in the 2026 New Zealand general election. How do parties' housing policies affect people returning to New Zealand to rent or buy?

As an eligible overseas voter considering a move back to New Zealand ahead of the November 2026 general election, navigating the property market is a crucial part of your decision. The major political parties offer sharply contrasting visions for housing, which directly impact what your experience will look like whether you plan to rent first or buy straight away.


1. If You Plan to Rent First

If you intend to rent upon returning while you settle back into the job market or look for a permanent home, the parties approach tenant security and rental costs from very different angles:

  • Labour, the Greens, and Progressive Parties (Focus on Tenant Protections & Supply):
    • Parties on the left generally push for stronger regulatory controls on landlords to protect tenants. This can include proposals for stricter limits or caps on how frequently and by how much rent can be increased, as well as restrictions on no-cause evictions.
    • For renters, these policies aim to provide long-term stability and predictability in living costs. However, critics argue they can sometimes shrink private rental supply if landlords choose to exit the market. Labour also leans heavily into building state and social housing to ease overall market pressure.
  • National, ACT, and Centre-Right Parties (Focus on Investor Incentives):
    • The current National-led framework has favored reviving the private rental market by restoring interest deductibility for landlords and shortening the bright-line test (capital gains window on properties) to two years.
    • The philosophy here is that encouraging private property investors makes more rental properties available. For a returning expat, this could mean a wider selection of private rentals on the market, though without government-imposed caps on rent increases.

2. If You Plan to Buy a Home

For returning kiwis looking to step straight onto the property ladder or purchase a family home, the parties offer distinct pathways involving tax structures and buyer support:

  • National (Support for First-Home Buyers):
    • National's strategy targets first-home buyers by expanding entry channels. A key proposal involves widening access to the First Home Loan scheme—allowing purchases with a low 5% deposit—by significantly lifting the household income eligibility caps (e.g., up to $300,000 for a household).
    • Impact: If you have savings built up overseas but need a hand with a lower deposit threshold while qualifying under higher income parameters, this makes breaking into or re-entering the market easier.
  • Labour (Tax Changes & Wealth Rebalancing):
    • Labour has proposed a capital gains tax (excluding the family home up to a certain point, but capturing future gains on investment properties and secondary properties from mid-2027) alongside continued emphasis on public housing supply.
    • Impact: For owner-occupiers buying a primary residence, a capital gains tax on investments can cool speculative bidding from property investors, potentially making the market less cut-throat against multiple-property buyers.
  • ACT and Other Alternatives:
    • ACT firmly opposes capital gains or wealth taxes, focusing instead on aggressive supply-side reform—such as streamlining local council building consents and incentivizing councils to approve new housing developments.
    • Other groups, like The Opportunity Party (TOP), advocate for broader land-value taxes designed to structurally lower overall house prices over time.

Summary Checklist for Returning Expats

Goal Left / Centre-Left Approach (e.g., Labour, Greens) Right / Centre-Right Approach (e.g., National, ACT)
Renting Greater stability via potential rent increase caps and expanded state housing. Broader private rental stock encouraged by landlord-friendly tax settings.
Buying Cooling speculative investor demand via capital gains frameworks; direct public builds. Expanding low-deposit first-home buyer loan caps and cutting red tape to boost building supply.

As an overseas voter, how do these competing philosophies—whether relying on private market incentives or state-backed/regulatory intervention—align with your expectations for settling back into New Zealand?

Ask Gemini

Gemini is AI and can make mistakes.

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Google AI Mode · No location

I'm an eligible New Zealand voter living overseas and considering returning. I am comparing job opportunities, housing costs and New Zealand's international outlook. I am considering my vote in the 2026 New Zealand general election. How do parties' housing policies affect people returning to New Zealand to rent or buy?

For a New Zealand citizen returning from overseas ahead of or around the November 7, 2026 general election, political parties offer sharply contrasting approaches to the housing market. These policies directly shape how achievable it is to secure a rental or enter the property market as a first-home buyer.


The Main Parties and Their Housing Positions

  • The National Party
  • Buying: According to ANZASW Policy Tracker, National focuses on assisting first-home buyers by expanding access to a 5% deposit through the First Home Loan scheme, raising the income cap to $300,000 for individuals or couples. They also support private-sector supply and maintain interest deductibility rules for property investors to encourage rental stock.
  • Renting: National's framework relies heavily on maintaining a steady supply of private rentals through property investor incentives rather than direct price controls on landlords.
  • The Labour Party
  • Buying & Investing: Labour has proposed a 28% capital gains tax targeting commercial and secondary residential properties, explicitly exempting the family home. They have also committed a $4 billion package for infrastructure and social housing, including funding for at least 6,000 more social housing places and state builds via Kāinga Ora.
  • Renting: Labour emphasizes public housing expansion to alleviate state waitlists and bring down broader market pressures, while leaving current interest deductibility rules intact.
  • The Green Party
  • Buying & Tax: The Greens advocate major tax system overhauls, proposing a 28% capital gains tax, a 1.75% land value tax, and a 5% stamp duty on residential sales, alongside repealing interest deductibility for investors and restoring the 10-year bright-line test.
  • Renting: The Greens focus heavily on tenant rights, proposing to cap annual rent increases at 2%, end no-cause evictions, and implement an enforced rental warrant of fitness.
  • ACT New Zealand
  • Market Approach: ACT generally emphasizes cutting red tape, local government zoning restrictions, and compliance costs for developers to spur private housing supply. They oppose new capital gains or land taxes, arguing that freeing up land and reducing regulation is the most effective way to lower overall construction and purchasing costs.

How These Policies Affect Returning New Zealanders

1. If You Want to Buy a Home

  • First-Home Buyer Support: If you are returning with savings and looking to buy your first property, parties like National offer direct purchasing assistance by broadening income caps for low-deposit (5%) schemes. [anzasw]
  • Market Competition & Prices: If you prefer a cooling market with fewer investor-driven price spikes, policies from the Green Party or Labour (via capital gains and land-value taxes) are designed to dampen speculative demand. Conversely, critics argue these taxes might restrict private rental supply, while National and ACT argue that incentivizing private investors and cutting red tape is vital to boosting overall housing stock and stabilizing prices naturally.

2. If You Want to Rent First

  • Rent Stability: If you plan to rent initially while settling into a new job, the Green Party approach offers direct intervention through a strict 2% annual cap on rent increases and enhanced tenant protections. [Realestate.co.nz]
  • Rental Availability: Parties favoring investor-friendly tax settings (National , ACT) contend that protecting landlords' ability to deduct interest keeps private rental properties on the market, potentially offering a wider selection of rental listings—though average rents across the country remain subject to broader economic factors like inflation and regional supply.

Note: As an overseas voter, you are generally eligible to vote if you have been in New Zealand within the last three years (for citizens) or six years (for permanent residents). You can check your status and enroll via the official VOTE.NZ portal.

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Captured 19 October 2026 · shown as Google AI Mode gave it, not a verified account