Evidence · NZ Election 2026 · Edition 4

Every question, every answer, every source

All 174 questions and the 776 answers produced on 19 October 2026. For the other 44 planned combinations, Google produced no AI Overview or AI Mode answer.

questions
174
answers saved
776
collected
19 October 2026

01

Every question, with its answers

Each question was written as a voter would ask it and went to all four assistants. Some were also asked from a town. Open a question to read every answer to it in full.

Showing 20 of 174 questions

02

The tables behind the study

Every figure on the study page comes from these tables. They are CSV files, which open in any spreadsheet.

  • Questions

    questions.csv

    One row per question, unchanged since 5 October.

    id, text, reference, axes, collectionSettings, enabled

  • Answers

    answers.csv

    One row per saved answer, with its complete original text.

    id, questionId, assistant, collectionSetting, askedFrom, text, words

  • Sources by answer

    source-associations.csv

    One row per website associated with an answer; repeated citations count once.

    answer id, question id, assistant, domain, publisher

  • Checks against official sources

    checks.csv

    One row per selected statement and assistant, including those where the statement was not made.

    checkId, claimToTest, category, answerId, questionId, assistant, assertionPresent, assertion, paragraphs, verdict, evidence, whatTheSourceSays, checkedOn, assessment

  • Who to vote for: what each answer did

    behaviour-coding.csv

    One row per voting-guidance answer read in full, with each behaviour marked. Behaviours overlap; the original answers supply the evidence.

    prompt_id, draft_id, platform, region, explicit_choice_boundary, conditional_party_or_bloc_alignment, prioritised_shortlist, elicits_additional_user_information, unconditional_single_party_vote_instruction, excerpts, rationale, reviewer, reviewed_on, answerId

  • Location and national answers

    place-pairs.csv

    One row per national and location pair in this edition.

    question id, assistant, place, national answer id, place answer id, national entities, place entities, same entities

  • Changes between editions

    party-change-tables.csv

    One row per answer and earlier edition, with the parties named then and now.

    earlier_edition, earlier_result_id, current_result_id, prompt_id, platform, region, draft_id, block, scenario_id, scenario, issue, priority, same_text, same_party_set, earlier_parties, current_parties, added, removed

  • Changes across editions

    trajectory-tables.csv

    One row per pair of editions, with how many of the same 776 answers changed their party line-up.

    earlier_edition, current_edition, denominator, changed_all17, changed_seven

  • Party counts by edition

    party-count-tables.csv

    One row per comparison, edition, assistant and party, with the answers naming the party.

    panel, edition, platform, entity_id, party, numerator, denominator

  • Parties entering and leaving answers

    party-mention-flows.csv

    One row per party and assistant: answers that gained, lost or kept the party since 16 October.

    entity_id, platform, denominator, earlier, current, gained, lost, retained

  • Parties named by issue

    topic-presence-tables.csv

    One row per issue and party, with the answers naming the party.

    issue, entity_id, numerator, denominator

  • Location comparisons by edition

    regional-tables.csv

    One row per national and location pair, comparison and edition.

    panel, edition, prompt_id, platform, region, draft_id, block, scenario_id, scenario, issue, priority, complete, national_result_id, location_result_id, same_party_set

  • Answer length by assistant

    platform-tables.csv

    One row per comparison, edition and assistant, with answer length and the answers naming all six parties in Parliament.

    panel, edition, platform, answers, median_words, all_six_parliamentary

  • Voting guidance changes between editions

    guidance-change-tables.csv

    One row per voting-guidance answer and behaviour, on 16 and 19 October.

    draft_id, platform, measure, earlier_result_id, result_id, earlier, current, changed

  • What changed for each voter

    case-assessments.csv

    One row per voter: what changed in the answer to their main question.

    case, transition, earlier_quote, quote, assessment

  • Statements selected for checking

    check-register.csv

    One row per statement selected for checking, with why it was chosen and its primary source.

    checkId, claimToTest, category, whyChecked, primarySourceUrl, answerId

  • Answers paired with Edition 3

    pairs.csv

    One row per answer, with the 16 October answer to the same question, assistant and location.

    earlierAnswerId, answerId, questionId, assistant, collectionSetting, askedFrom

  • Source capture by answer

    sources.csv

    One row per answer, with whether its sources were captured and the websites recorded.

    answerId, capture, domains, urls, literalUrls, scope

  • Websites by reach

    source-reach-tables.csv

    One row per website, with the answers associated with it.

    domain, answers, denominator

  • Websites by issue

    topic-source-tables.csv

    One row per issue and website, with the answers associated with it.

    issue, domain, answers, denominator

  • Party matches reviewed in context

    party-identity-decisions.csv

    One row per possible party match read in context, with whether it counted and why.

    result_id, party, include, state, reason, reviewer, reviewed_on, review_basis, contexts

  • Parties found in each answer

    codings.csv

    One row per answer, party and comparison, with whether the party counted and the passage that shows it.

    comparisonId, answerId, entityId, kind, measure, counted, quote, reason, evidence

  • Comparisons each answer is in

    memberships.csv

    One row per answer and comparison.

    comparisonId, answerId, rowKey, included

  • Claims Onsomble recorded

    raw-native-claims.csv

    One row per claim, with the parties it is about and its stance on each.

    claimId, claimText, quote, stance, platform, region, promptId, brands, sources, drivers, sourceResultId

  • Answers read in full

    semantic-review-ledger.csv

    One row per answer and question a reviewer read in full, with the decision and the passage.

    result_id, dimension, state, decision, rationale, excerpt, reviewer, reviewed_on

  • Passages quoted in the analysis

    report-evidence.csv

    One row per answer passage the analysis quotes, with its reading.

    key, answerId, interpretation, text

  • Analysis findings

    findings.csv

    One row per finding in the analysis, with its figure and the table it comes from.

    id, value, denominator, statement, summary, caveat, evidence, reportFile

Use these tables to trace findings back to the original questions and answers. The full text of each answer is also on this page, under its question.

03

Read in full and checked

Some answers were read in detail or checked against official sources. Those appear on the study page, beside the findings they support.

ChatGPT · No location

We own a mortgaged home in an area affected by flooding. Insurance affordability, protection works and what happens after another flood are major concerns for us. I am considering my vote in the 2026 New Zealand general election. What do parties propose for homeowners whose property becomes difficult to insure or unsafe to live in?

New Zealand 2026 election: what happens to flood-prone homes?

For a household with a mortgage on a flood-affected property, there are three distinct questions to put to the parties: who will help keep the home safe, who will help you afford insurance, and who will pay if the home eventually becomes unsafe to live in?

As at 18 October 2026, the election is scheduled for 7 November. The key distinction in the policies is between reducing flood risk so people can stay in their homes and helping people relocate when the risk becomes too great. The main parties vying to form New Zealand's next governmentNational Adaptation framework

One important finding: New Zealand's national adaptation framework is developing, but there is not yet a universal guarantee that the government will buy a home that becomes unliveable because of flooding. The details of cost-sharing, insurance and relocation are therefore particularly important for homeowners to examine. What’s going on with home insurance?National Adaptation framework

What the main policy options look like

Party-by-party comparison

This compares published policies available by 18 October 2026. “Not found” means I could not verify a specific commitment in the sources reviewed; it does not mean the party has no position.

Will National Party Finish 2nd in New Zealand's 2026 Election?

National

The current government's approach

National's government has established a National Adaptation Framework covering risk information, responsibilities, investment in risk reduction and how costs are shared before and after disasters. It has also announced a national flood map, with the first version expected by 2027, and plans for adaptation planning in high-priority areas. National Adaptation frameworkOur enduring approach to a changing climate

For your household: better information and planned flood-risk reduction are explicit priorities. However, the framework leaves important cost-sharing decisions to further work; it does not promise every unliveable home will be bought out. Our enduring approach to a changing climateNew Zealand weather events prompt rethink of government housing protections

National's policy information

South Island Election Conference 2026

Labour

Labour's published 2026 policy page includes consumer protections and other cost-of-living measures, but I could not verify a specific election commitment that guarantees affordable flood insurance, a national flood buyout scheme or compensation for an unliveable home. Labour's 2026 Election PoliciesLabour's 2026 Election Policies

For your household: ask whether Labour would retain or change the existing adaptation framework, what it would commit to for post-flood relocation, and how it would divide costs between central government, councils, insurers and owners.

Labour's 2026 policies

Green Party NZ (@NZGreens) on X

Green Party

The Greens' 2026 manifesto commits to preparing New Zealand for increasingly severe weather, including flooding, and to supporting people through climate impacts. Its wider climate and environmental programme also emphasises resilience and protecting communities. Manifesto 2026Manifesto 2026

For your household: the party's published direction includes climate resilience, but I could not verify a specific promise of guaranteed home-insurance cover or a fixed buyout entitlement for flood-damaged homeowners in the material reviewed.

Green Party's 2026 manifesto

The Opportunity Party (TOP)

TOP has published a specific climate-resilience package proposing a National Insurance Support Framework to manage the retreat of coastal and flood-prone communities. It also proposes clearer climate-risk information for new homes, mortgages and insurance; better coordination of hazard data; and a $5 billion Climate Resilience Fund, including $500 million for nature-based solutions. Climate ActionOpportunity proposes national insurance support framework as part of climate policy

For your household: this is a direct proposal addressing insurance retreat and the management of high-risk communities. The published summary does not, by itself, establish that every homeowner would qualify for a buyout or that insurance premiums would be capped.

TOP's climate-action policy

New Zealand Legislative Election Winner 2026 Odds | Polymarket

ACT New Zealand

ACT has historically argued that adaptation should emphasise practical risk reduction and local decision-making rather than broad government-backed insurance guarantees. In 2022, it opposed a proposed flood-insurance scheme on the grounds that it could weaken incentives to reduce risk. ACT New Zealand

For your household: the questions to ask are whether ACT supports any public assistance when a home becomes uninsurable, what protection works it would prioritise, and how it would handle a community where flood risk cannot reasonably be reduced.

ACT's website

New Zealand legislative election winner? Predictions & Od... 2026 | Polymarket

New Zealand First

I could not verify a sufficiently specific 2026 party commitment on flood-related insurance withdrawal, homeowner buyouts or compensation for homes rendered unsafe.

For your household: ask whether the party would support the current framework's cost-sharing arrangements, public funding for flood defences and a defined process for relocating households after repeated flooding.

New Zealand First's website

What the differences mean for a mortgaged homeowner

The policies above matter because these are three different problems, and a policy that addresses one may not solve the others.

1. Keeping insurance available and affordable

The key policy question is whether government should intervene if insurers substantially increase premiums, impose exclusions or stop offering cover in high-risk areas.

TOP proposes a national framework for managing insurance retreat. The existing government framework addresses adaptation and cost-sharing more broadly, but a universal premium cap or guarantee of continued cover has not been established in the sources reviewed. Climate ActionNational Adaptation frameworkWhat’s going on with home insurance?

2. Paying for flood protection

Relevant measures include stopbanks, drainage and stormwater upgrades, restored wetlands, property-level flood resilience and raising homes where feasible.

The National Adaptation Framework explicitly includes investment in risk reduction. TOP proposes a Climate Resilience Fund with a nature-based solutions component. For any party, the crucial details are which projects qualify, how they are prioritised and how much central government contributes rather than leaving costs to local ratepayers. National Adaptation frameworkClimate ActionManaged retreat

3. What happens if you cannot safely stay?

Managed retreat means moving homes and communities away from unacceptable hazards. A workable scheme needs eligibility rules, a valuation method, a funding formula and a clear explanation of what happens to existing mortgages.

Government policy is moving towards clearer arrangements, but previous government statements have questioned whether repeated post-disaster buyouts can continue indefinitely. Do not assume that another flood would automatically trigger a full-value government purchase. New Zealand weather events prompt rethink of government housing protectionsAdaptation options including managed retreatManaged retreat, private insurance retreat, public insurance and the connections between them :: Natural Hazards Commission Toka Tū Ake

Five questions worth putting to every party

These are the practical commitments that could make the biggest difference to your household's financial security.

  1. Insurance: If private insurers withdraw from our area, would you create a public insurance scheme, subsidise premiums, or provide another form of support?
  2. Protection works: What funding would you commit to flood defences and drainage, and who pays if a project protects several communities?
  3. Buyouts: If our home becomes unsafe or uninsurable, would we qualify for a government-supported buyout? Would compensation reflect market value before the risk emerged, current value, or another formula?
  4. Mortgages: How would you protect homeowners who still owe the bank more than their flood-damaged or high-risk property is worth?
  5. Timing and certainty: Would your policy establish legal entitlements and deadlines, or leave decisions to ministers and councils after each disaster?

Where to check the details before voting

My main takeaway: when comparing parties, distinguish between a promise to improve flood resilience and a commitment to protect your household financially if resilience measures fail. Those are not the same thing. For someone with a mortgage, the most consequential unanswered question is whether there will be a predictable, funded pathway out if a home becomes unsafe or impossible to insure — rather than uncertainty about who will pay after the next flood.

Ask anything

ChatGPT can make mistakes. Check important info.

Captured 19 October 2026 · shown as ChatGPT gave it, not a verified account

Gemini · No location

We own a mortgaged home in an area affected by flooding. Insurance affordability, protection works and what happens after another flood are major concerns for us. I am considering my vote in the 2026 New Zealand general election. What do parties propose for homeowners whose property becomes difficult to insure or unsafe to live in?

For homeowners with a mortgaged property in a flood-prone area, the intersection of insurance availability, physical protection works, and managed retreat is one of the most pressing structural challenges in New Zealand.

As climate-related risks mount and private insurers increasingly pull back from high-risk zones or spike premiums, political parties are under pressure to define who carries the ultimate financial burden—homeowners, banks, local councils, or taxpayers.

The policy landscape across the political spectrum focuses on several distinct approaches for dealing with properties that are becoming difficult to insure or unsafe to live in:


1. The National-led Government / Center-Right Approach

  • Focus on Regional Resilience and Infrastructure: The current policy emphasis leans heavily toward supporting local councils with physical protection infrastructure (such as flood stopbanks, drainage upgrades, and regional resilience projects). The rationale is that investing in hard defenses protects existing communities and keeps private property insurable for longer.
  • Property Rights and Market Signals: Center-right parties generally favor letting insurance markets function with transparent risk pricing. They emphasize personal and property-owner responsibility, arguing that government intervention should avoid creating moral hazards where taxpayers bail out high-risk private land choices.
  • Reluctance on Unfunded Buyouts: Broadly, center-right parties have been cautious about committing broad-scale taxpayer or Crown funds to buy out flood-affected or uninsurable homeowners, viewing widespread property buyouts as an unsustainable fiscal burden for the state, though emergency relief and localized coordination are utilized post-disaster.

2. The Labour Party / Center-Left Approach

  • Systemic Adaptation Frameworks: Labour has historically emphasized the need for a national adaptation framework, aiming to progress legislation that sets standard rules for managed retreat (when and how communities move away from unviable high-risk land).
  • Sharing the Cost: Center-left policy discussions traditionally emphasize a co-funding model involving central government, local councils, and property owners. The objective is to prevent managed retreat from becoming a chaotic process that exclusively punishes low-income homeowners who cannot afford to absorb a total loss.
  • Insurance and Risk Reduction: Labour supports clearer national guidance on natural hazard data (such as expanding the scope of Toka Tū Ake EQC / the Natural Hazards Commission) so that risks are clearly mapped before people buy, preventing the problem from compounding for future generations.

3. Minor Parties and Specific Proposals

  • The Opportunity Party (TOP): TOP has put forward targeted policy proposals focusing explicitly on insurance retreat. They advocate for a National Insurance Support Framework, an expanded formal role for the Natural Hazards Commission (NHC) to handle property-level risk assessments, and mandatory climate-risk disclosures baked into property, mortgage, and insurance products. Their framework attempts to create a regulated transition rulebook so homeowners aren't suddenly left stranded by private insurers withdrawing cover.
  • The Greens: The Green Party advocates for urgent, centralized government intervention on climate adaptation, heavily prioritizing funding for vulnerable communities, public-led managed retreat programs with financial backing for displaced homeowners, and a stronger emphasis on nature-based solutions rather than just hard engineering. They argue that low-income and Māori communities facing disproportionate climate risks require direct state support.

Key Practical Realities for Mortgaged Homeowners

Regardless of which party or coalition leads the government following the election, homeowners in flood-prone areas face a complex reality:

  • The Mortgage Constraint: Registered banks in New Zealand are increasingly factoring climate and flood risk into lending criteria. If a property loses its insurance coverage, banks are legally and prudently constrained from issuing or renewing mortgages on that asset, which creates severe pressure for a coordinated political solution.
  • The "Who Pays?" Deadlock: The core debate across all parties remains fiscal: To what extent should taxpayers subsidize homeowners who chose or remain in high-risk zones, versus leaving the cost to private insurance markets and individual property owners?

When evaluating your vote, you may want to look closely at whether a party favors market-led insurance pricing (with fewer safety nets for individual losses) versus state-backed adaptation frameworks (which push for government-backed buyouts, shared-cost managed retreat, and regulated insurance backstops).

Are you leaning toward a particular approach for your property, or are there specific local council protection works in your region that are influencing your decision?

Ask Gemini

Gemini is AI and can make mistakes.

Captured 19 October 2026 · shown as Gemini gave it, not a verified account

Google AI Mode · No location

We own a mortgaged home in an area affected by flooding. Insurance affordability, protection works and what happens after another flood are major concerns for us. I am considering my vote in the 2026 New Zealand general election. What do parties propose for homeowners whose property becomes difficult to insure or unsafe to live in?

For homeowners in flood-prone areas facing mounting concerns over insurance availability, property safety, and post-flood recovery, the major political parties approaching the 2026 general election outline distinct philosophical and structural approaches to climate adaptation and managed retreat.

The primary positions and proposals from key parties regarding uninsurable or unsafe properties include:

  • National: Focuses on practical planning, a National Adaptation Framework, and local engineering solutions (such as river gravel extraction standards). The current-leading stance signals a move away from a default reliance on government-funded property buyouts after every major weather event, emphasizing that standard bailouts can blunt individual and local risk-management incentives. Policy development leans toward establishing structured cost-sharing frameworks between central government, local authorities, and property owners, while continuing to evaluate long-term options like insurance backstops or risk-sharing models.

  • Labour: Proposes a mixed-funding and shared-responsibility model involving beneficiaries, exacerbators, central government, local councils, banks, and insurers. While broader comprehensive adaptation and retreat policies have developed progressively, Labour generally supports a collaborative burden-sharing approach rather than leaving vulnerable communities entirely exposed to private market withdrawal. [RNZ]

  • Green Party: Advocates for an integrated, cross-party climate adaptation and mitigation framework. The Greens emphasize investment in green infrastructure and systemic planning that honors Te Tiriti o Waitangi , supporting fair relocation support and community-led adaptation pathways for areas facing severe repeat flooding. [RNZ]

  • ACT: Takes a cautious approach to top-down restrictions or extreme hazard designations by local councils. ACT tends to emphasize private property rights, economic pragmatism, and prioritizing practical engineering alternatives or infrastructure protection over forced or heavily regulated managed retreats. [RNZ]

  • The Opportunity Party (TOP): Put forward a specific Climate Resilient Aotearoa proposal targeting insurance retreat directly. They propose a National Insurance Support Framework (including exploring models similar to overseas public-private flood insurance pools), an expanded role for the Natural Hazards Commission (NHC), and mandatory, forward-looking climate-risk disclosures for property, mortgages, and insurance.

To help narrow down how these policies impact your specific situation, would you like to share:

  • Whether your local council has already categorized your property's hazard risk?
  • If your current insurer has altered your terms or premiums?

I can provide further details on how these specific frameworks propose to handle property value impacts and relocation costs.

Ask anything

Captured 19 October 2026 · shown as Google AI Mode gave it, not a verified account

AI Overviews · No location

We own a mortgaged home in an area affected by flooding. Insurance affordability, protection works and what happens after another flood are major concerns for us. I am considering my vote in the 2026 New Zealand general election. What do parties propose for homeowners whose property becomes difficult to insure or unsafe to live in?

AI Overview

For the 2026 New Zealand general election , political parties have differing approaches to handling climate adaptation, property insurability, flood protection, and unlivable homes. While a bipartisan Finance and Expenditure Select Committee inquiry sought to establish core principles, major disagreements remain over who pays and how much financial support the government should guarantee to homeowners.

The policy platform overview below outlines what the main political parties propose for properties impacted by chronic flooding.


Party Policies & Proposals

Political Party Insurance Affordability & Government Intervention Flood Protection Works & Infrastructure Managed Retreat & Unsafe Housing
National Party Rejects mandatory insurance levies or acting as a permanent insurer of last resort. Aims to reduce risk so private markets keep insuring. Released the National Adaptation Framework. Introduced a July 2026 Bill mandating 30-year local council adaptation plans. Prioritizes local resilience projects like river gravel extraction. Defers final cost-sharing decisions and buyout frameworks to the next parliamentary term. Emphasizes clear "risk transparency" via a nationwide Flood Map.
Labour Party Advocates for a shared-responsibility insurance model involving banks, insurers, and public funds to support at-risk households. Critiques National’s cuts to climate funds. Backs long-term public adaptation funding but has deferred specific 2026 spending pledges to a post-manifesto announcement. Proposes a "beneficiary, exacerbator, and public pays" cost-sharing formula. Supports reviving previous frameworks for structured, legislated managed retreat.
Green Party Strongly pushes for well-funded public lifelines and safety nets for vulnerable, lower-income communities losing insurance. Supports heavy investment in nature-based solutions (similar to the "Room for Rivers" concept) and a dedicated national flood mitigation fund. Strongly advocates for an orderly, fully funded managed retreat process embedded into resource management laws to prevent homeowners from being financially stranded.
ACT New Zealand Focuses on strict fiscal discipline and resists using central tax revenue to bail out property owners who build or stay in high-risk zones. Argues that local infrastructure and mitigation should be funded primarily by local councils or targeted rates on the specific beneficiaries. Believes private property owners must bear the risk outlined in property LIM reports and titles, rather than relying on central government compensation.
New Zealand First Views the issue through a lens of regional productivity and infrastructure resilience rather than broader climate policy. Focuses heavily on the $1.2 billion Regional Infrastructure Fund to actively build physical stopbanks, flood protection, and water infrastructure. Favors investing heavily in engineering defenses to keep properties safe in place where economically viable, rather than defaulting to managed retreat.
The Opportunity Party (TOP) Proposes "Climate Opportunities" rules to explicitly address insurance retreat, utilizing public-private partnerships. Demands an enduring, multi-party Climate Adaptation Act to ensure funding for protection works survives changes of government. Proposes a strict ban on building in harm's way alongside a transparent, structured system for managed retreat.

Core Issues Impacting Mortgaged Homeowners

  • The Funding Gap: The Climate Change Response Amendment Bill introduced in July 2026 forces local councils to build 30-year adaptation maps, but the National-led government explicitly deferred deciding exactly who pays for property buyouts or major defenses until after the 2026 election.
  • The Mortgage Trailing Risk: If private insurers complete their transition to granular, property-level risk pricing and pull coverage from your street, it creates an immediate issue with your bank. New Zealand mortgages require active insurance as a security covenant; losing coverage can trigger a technical default or a call on the loan.
  • Natural Hazards Commission Cap: If a landslide or flood damages your land, the

Natural Hazards Commission Toka Tū Ake

provides a residential building cover cap (typically $300,000 + GST), but any loss beyond that—or complete loss of home value due to uninsurability—relies entirely on private insurance or future government buyout policies.

To help narrow down how these party positions affect your specific household, let me know:

  • Have you received any preliminary warnings or steep premium hikes from your current private insurer?
  • Has your local regional council indicated whether they plan to fund protection works or if they are considering your neighborhood for a managed retreat zone?
Ask anything

Captured 19 October 2026 · shown as AI Overviews gave it, not a verified account