Evidence · NZ Election 2026 · Edition 5

Every question and original answer

All 174 questions and the 786 complete answers recorded on 23 October 2026. Source lists and sentiment assessments are included, alongside the unchanged original answers.

questions
174
answers saved
786
collected
23 October 2026

01

Every question, with its answers

Each question was written as a voter would ask it and went to all four assistants. Some were also asked from a town. Open a question to read every answer to it in full.

Showing 20 of 174 questions

02

The tables behind the study

Every figure on the study page comes from these tables. They are CSV files, which open in any spreadsheet.

  • Questions

    questions.csv

    One row per question, with its original wording.

    id, text, reference, enabled, axes, collectionSettings

  • Complete answers

    answers.csv

    One row per saved answer, including its original text.

    id, questionId, assistant, collectionSetting, askedFrom, text, words

  • Answers included in each comparison

    memberships.csv

    One row per answer and comparison, showing which results were counted together.

    comparisonId, answerId, rowKey, included

  • Party names found in answers

    codings.csv

    One row per answer, party and comparison, with the recorded decision and evidence.

    comparisonId, answerId, entityId, kind, measure, counted, quote, reason, evidence

  • Sources recorded with each answer

    sources.csv

    One row per answer, with its recorded websites, source-list status and visible links.

    answerId, capture, domains, urls, literalUrls, origin

  • What the voting-guidance answers did

    behaviour-coding.csv

    One row per guidance answer, with the recorded behaviours and supporting passages.

    answerId, draft_id, platform, explicit_choice_boundary, conditional_party_or_bloc_alignment, prioritised_shortlist, elicits_additional_user_information, unconditional_single_party_vote_instruction, rationale, evidence, review_provenance

  • Checks against official sources

    checks.csv

    One row per selected statement checked in an answer.

    checkId, claimToTest, category, answerId, questionId, assistant, assertionPresent, assertion, verdict, evidence, whatTheSourceSays, assessment, checkedOn, paragraphs

  • Statements selected for checking

    check-register.csv

    One row per selected check, with its reason and official source.

    checkId, claimToTest, category, whyChecked, primarySourceUrl, answerId

  • Research findings

    findings.csv

    One row per finding, with its figure and supporting records.

    id, statement, summary, caveat, value, denominator, evidence

  • Evidence behind the findings

    findings-evidence.csv

    One row per finding, with the records supporting it.

    findingId, rows

  • What changed for each voter

    case-decisions.csv

    One row per voter situation, with the earlier and later readings.

    case, transition, quote, assessment, draft_id, scenario, earlier_result_id, result_id, earlier_quote, earlier_assessment, earlier_review_provenance, current_review_provenance

  • Answers read in detail

    report-evidence.csv

    One row per answer included in the detailed research readings.

    key, answerId, interpretation, text

  • Party counts by edition

    party-count-tables.csv

    One row per comparison, edition, assistant and party, with its answer count and total.

    panel, edition, platform, party, numerator, denominator

  • Answer length by assistant

    platform-tables.csv

    One row per comparison, edition and assistant, with the recorded answer lengths.

    panel, edition, platform, answers, median_words, total_words

  • Location comparisons by edition

    regional-tables.csv

    One row per national-and-location comparison and edition.

    edition, prompt_id, platform, city, draft_id, block, scenario_id, scenario, issue, priority, common_4_5, complete, national_result_id, city_result_id, same_text, same_party_set, same_displayed_party_set

  • Changes by topic

    issue-tables.csv

    One row per topic, showing answer totals and changes in party names.

    issue, current_answers, matched, changed_party_sets, changed_displayed_party_sets

  • Links visible in answers

    literal-source-evidence.csv

    One row per answer, with the web links present in its text.

    edition, result_id, literal_urls, literal_domains, associated_capture

  • Separate website reference totals

    aggregate-references.csv

    One row per website in the separate reference summary; these totals do not identify which answer used it.

    domain, citationCount, referenceCount, promptCount, urlTotal, trendTotal, platforms

  • Answers compared with 19 October

    pairs.csv

    One row per answer with an earlier counterpart to the same question, assistant and location.

    earlierAnswerId, answerId, questionId, assistant, collectionSetting, askedFrom

  • Statements and sentiment assessments

    claims.csv

    The saved assessments of statements about tracked parties, with their answer references and verified extracts where available.

    claimId, answerId, entityId, role, tone, quote, origin, nativeQuoteVerified

  • Original saved statement assessments

    raw-native-claims.csv

    One row per saved statement, with its original wording and party assessments. These are automated results, not independently checked facts.

    quote, brands, stance, claimId, claimText, sourceResultId

  • Original saved source records

    raw-native-sources.csv

    Every saved source record, distinguishing citations from other references. The source rankings count citations only.

    answerId, url, domain, metadata, domainType, citationKind

  • Sources by answer

    source-associations.csv

    One row per answer and website; repeated references to the same website count once.

    answer id, question id, assistant, domain, publisher

  • National and location answers

    place-pairs.csv

    One row per complete national-and-location pair in this edition.

    question id, assistant, place, national answer id, place answer id, national entities, place entities, same entities

Use these tables to trace findings back to the original questions and answers. The full text of each answer is also on this page, under its question.

03

Read in full and checked

Some answers were read in detail or checked against official sources. Those appear on the study page, beside the findings they support.

ChatGPT · No location

For the 2026 New Zealand general election: Compare parties' positions on foreign relationships, defence, trade and regional security.

New Zealand 2026 election: Foreign policy, defence, trade and regional security

New Zealand's general election is scheduled for 7 November 2026. The major parties differ over how closely New Zealand should align with traditional security partners, how much to invest in military capability, how to balance trade with China and other major economies, and what role New Zealand should play in Pacific security. Foreign affairs and sovereignty: party comparison 2026Speech: Securing New Zealand’s future in a more volatile world

A useful way to understand the contest is to separate four questions:

  • Foreign relationships: How should New Zealand balance its relationships with Australia, the United States, China, Europe and other partners?
  • Defence: Should New Zealand expand its military capability and security partnerships, or put greater emphasis on neutrality, diplomacy and humanitarian work?
  • Trade: Should the priority be new free-trade agreements, diversification of export markets, or stronger safeguards for workers, the environment and national sovereignty?
  • Regional security: How should New Zealand respond to strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific while respecting the independence of Pacific Island countries?

The comparison below focuses on the main parliamentary parties, using their published 2026 positions where available and identifying when a position comes from an earlier policy document. Party proposals are not the same as enacted policy, and some details may still change before election day.

1. Party-by-party comparison

Published positions available as of 22 October 2026. This is a policy comparison, not an endorsement or ranking.

Will National Party Finish 2nd in New Zealand's 2026 Election?

National

Security partnerships, military capability and export growth

South Island Election Conference 2026

Labour

Independent diplomacy, international law and diversified relationships

  • Foreign relationships: Maintain relationships with both the US and China, strengthen ties with the EU, Canada and ASEAN, and make the Pacific a central foreign-policy priority. Speech: Labour's foreign policyForeign Affairs

  • Defence: Labour has explicitly ruled out joining either pillar of AUKUS under a Labour government, while supporting Five Eyes intelligence cooperation and an independent foreign policy. Release: A Labour Government will not join AUKUS

  • Trade: Expand market opportunities in ASEAN, Europe, Africa and South America, while supporting open trade and international cooperation. Foreign AffairsSpeech: Labour's foreign policy

  • Regional security: Emphasise Pacific autonomy, peaceful coexistence and diplomacy. Labour proposes parliamentary scrutiny if New Zealand joins armed conflicts and progressively increasing overseas development assistance towards 0.7% of GNI, as fiscal conditions allow. Foreign AffairsSpeech: Labour's foreign policy

    Main emphasis: retaining strategic independence without abandoning established partnerships.

Green Party NZ (@NZGreens) on X

Green Party

Peace, human rights, climate diplomacy and sustainable trade

New Zealand Legislative Election Winner 2026 Odds | Polymarket

ACT

Security alignment and defence capability

  • Foreign relationships: ACT is a coalition partner in the current Government. Its published policy material reviewed here does not establish a complete, distinct 2026 foreign-policy programme. ACT New ZealandForeign affairs and sovereignty: party comparison 2026

  • Defence: ACT's position should be distinguished from National's: participation in a coalition does not mean every National defence commitment is an independently published ACT commitment.

  • Trade: The party has a market-oriented economic approach, but its current foreign-trade priorities need to be checked against specific election commitments.

  • Regional security: Its role in the current Government places it within the coalition's broader security-policy context, but that alone does not establish a separate ACT position on every alliance or regional initiative.

    Evidence note: treat specific ACT commitments on AUKUS, defence-spending targets and trade agreements as unconfirmed unless supported by a direct party statement.

New Zealand legislative election winner? Predictions & Od... 2026 | Polymarket

New Zealand First (NZ First)

National sovereignty, supply-chain resilience and stronger defence

  • Foreign relationships: Emphasise New Zealand's national interest, independence and cooperation with a diverse range of countries. Its published policy calls for a national-interest test for certain international agreements. Foreign affairs and sovereignty: party comparison 20262023 Election Policies

  • Defence: Its published 2023 policy proposed progressively raising real defence spending to 2% of GDP by 2030 and establishing a dedicated Defence Capital Fund. This is an earlier commitment, not confirmation of a new 2026 pledge. 2023 Election Policies

  • Trade: The 2023 policy supports new free-trade agreements, closer Commonwealth economic relations, a US free-trade agreement and more resilient supply chains. 2023 Election Policies

  • Regional security: Supports expanding the Pacific Reset to the wider Indo-Pacific and improving border protection and maritime capability. 2023 Election Policies

    Main emphasis: sovereign decision-making, diversified economic links and a more capable defence force.

New Zealand Legislative Election Winner 2026 Odds | Polymarket

Te Pāti Māori

Military neutrality, Māori values and Pacific relationships

  • Foreign relationships: Reset foreign policy to be independent and grounded in Māori values, with a focus on Pacific and Indigenous relationships. Military neutrality

  • Defence: Its June 2026 policy proposes declaring New Zealand militarily neutral, reviewing and withdrawing from military alignments it considers inconsistent with sovereignty, and refocusing the Defence Force on protection, disaster response and Pacific support. Military neutrality

  • Trade: Its neutrality policy does not, by itself, establish a comprehensive new trade-agreement programme. Specific trade commitments need to be assessed separately.

  • Regional security: Prioritise Pacific protection, Indigenous solidarity, human rights and accountability for war crimes. Military neutrality

    Main emphasis: neutrality and reducing dependence on major-power military alignments.

Sources for checking each party's latest announcements: National, Labour, Greens, ACT, NZ First and Te Pāti Māori.

2. Where the main differences lie

Issue National Labour Greens NZ First Te Pāti Māori
Strategic alignment Stronger defence partnerships Independent diplomacy; retain existing intelligence links Independent, peace-focused diplomacy Sovereignty and diverse partnerships Formal military neutrality
AUKUS Strengthen defence cooperation; verify any specific membership commitment Explicitly rejects both pillars Check latest specific position No verified current commitment found Review and withdraw from alignments that undermine sovereignty
Defence investment Double defence spending as a share of GDP Emphasis on independent policy and scrutiny of military involvement Conflict prevention and peaceful resolution Earlier target of 2% of GDP by 2030 Refocus on protection, disaster response and Pacific support
Trade New agreements and export growth Diversify markets and deepen EU, Canadian and ASEAN ties Sustainable and socially responsible trade Diversification, Commonwealth links and resilient supply chains No comprehensive new trade programme established by the cited policy
Pacific security Defence cooperation and regional partnerships Pacific autonomy and diplomacy Cooperation, self-determination and climate action Wider Indo-Pacific security engagement Pacific protection and Indigenous relationships

Sources: National's May 2026 speech and trade policy; Labour's 2026 foreign-affairs policy; Green Party policy framework; NZ First's 2023 policy; and Te Pāti Māori's June 2026 neutrality policy. Speech: Securing New Zealand’s future in a more volatile worldNew Zealand's Next Billion CustomersForeign AffairsDemocracy and International Relations2023 Election PoliciesMilitary neutralityRelease: A Labour Government will not join AUKUS

Note: The table summarises published positions, not necessarily complete party platforms. In particular, the older NZ First defence and trade commitments should not automatically be treated as new 2026 promises. ACT's distinct positions on several of these questions remain less clearly established in the sources reviewed.

3. Four questions worth examining before voting

A. How should New Zealand balance the US and China?

New Zealand has important economic relationships with China and established security and intelligence relationships with Western partners.

  • National emphasises closer defence cooperation and a broader network of security partnerships.
  • Labour explicitly argues for maintaining constructive relationships with both the US and China without joining either country's strategic agenda.
  • Greens place greater emphasis on independent diplomacy, international law and peaceful cooperation.
  • NZ First emphasises sovereignty, national interest and diversified relationships.
  • Te Pāti Māori proposes military neutrality and a review of military alignments.

These differences concern how New Zealand manages competing interests; they do not necessarily imply that a party would end trade or diplomatic relations with either major power. Speech: Securing New Zealand’s future in a more volatile worldSpeech: Labour's foreign policyDemocracy and International Relations2023 Election PoliciesMilitary neutrality

B. Should New Zealand become more militarily capable?

National has made a clear commitment to substantially increasing defence expenditure. NZ First's earlier policy also set a 2%-of-GDP target. Te Pāti Māori instead proposes a different emphasis for the Defence Force, while Labour has drawn a specific line against joining AUKUS. The Green Party's published framework stresses conflict prevention and peaceful resolution.

These positions raise practical questions about equipment, personnel, maritime surveillance, military readiness and the cost of maintaining capabilities over many years. Speech: Securing New Zealand’s future in a more volatile world2023 Election PoliciesMilitary neutralityRelease: A Labour Government will not join AUKUSDemocracy and International Relations

C. How much priority should trade receive relative to other foreign-policy goals?

National's current trade programme explicitly targets doubling export value by 2034 and pursuing agreements across several regions. Labour also supports open trade, but combines it with diplomatic diversification, international law and closer relationships with Europe, Canada and ASEAN. The Greens place explicit emphasis on sustainability and justice in trade and foreign investment. NZ First's earlier policy stresses market diversification and resilience against supply-chain disruption. New Zealand's Next Billion CustomersForeign AffairsDemocracy and International Relations2023 Election Policies

The key distinction is not simply whether a party supports trade. It is which markets it prioritises, what conditions it attaches to trade, and how it weighs economic opportunities against security, environmental and sovereignty concerns.

D. Who should shape security in the Pacific?

The Pacific is important to New Zealand because of geography, longstanding relationships, climate vulnerability and increasing strategic competition.

National is pursuing stronger defence partnerships, including exploring participation in the Australia–Fiji Ocean of Peace Alliance. Labour places particular emphasis on Pacific autonomy and development. The Greens emphasise cooperation and climate action, while Te Pāti Māori centres Pacific protection and Indigenous relationships. NZ First's earlier policy calls for extending the Pacific Reset across the wider Indo-Pacific. NZ to explore joining Fiji-Australia defence allianceSpeech: Labour's foreign policyDemocracy and International RelationsMilitary neutrality2023 Election Policies

An important distinction is whether New Zealand's regional role should rely primarily on military partnerships, diplomatic and economic cooperation, or a combination of the two.

4. Where to verify the latest policies

Because election commitments can change quickly, these sources are useful for checking new announcements and the full policy documents:

The central choice for voters is how to balance security partnerships, independent decision-making, economic opportunity and Pacific relationships. Comparing each party's specific commitments—and whether they are new, funded and clearly defined—will help distinguish broad principles from policies a future government could actually implement.

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For the 2026 New Zealand general election: Compare parties' positions on foreign relationships, defence, trade and regional security.

For the 2026 New Zealand general election, political parties offer distinct visions for New Zealand’s place in the world, balancing traditional alliances, regional security in the Pacific, and independent foreign policy positions.


1. International Relations and Foreign Policy

  • Green Party & Minor Left/Independent Parties (e.g., Alliance): Advocate for a fiercely independent foreign policy centered strictly on international law, multilateralism, human rights, and peaceful diplomacy. The Greens emphasize global climate cooperation and self-determination for populations globally, with certain minor groups (such as Free Palestine or independent progressive platforms) calling for direct state recognition of Palestine or reassessing traditional major-power alignment.
  • New Zealand First: Champions a sovereignty-first framework, pushing for a formal "national interest test" for international treaties and agreements. They argue that domestic law and democratic oversight must take precedence over external mandates or broad agreements from international bodies (such as UN agencies) if they limit New Zealand's legislative freedom.
  • Mainstream Coalition & Opposition Views (National and Labour): Generally maintain traditional diplomatic settings emphasizing established democratic partnerships, strengthening engagement within the Indo-Pacific, and prioritizing deep diplomatic and economic ties with Australia, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific Islands.

2. Defence and Regional Security

  • Pacific-First and Humanitarian Focus (Greens and Progressive Parties): Generally advocate shifting New Zealand’s defence posture and foreign aid inward toward the Pacific, prioritizing climate adaptation assistance, disaster relief, and civil maritime protection over heavy military alignment. Some minor peace-advocacy groups and fringe parties go further, calling to declare New Zealand "military neutral" or to withdraw from formal security pacts with major western military partners.
  • Mainstream and Coalition Parties (National, ACT, NZ First): Generally lean toward strengthening defence readiness, modernizing equipment, and deepening interoperability with traditional democratic security partners (such as Australia, members of the Five Eyes intelligence network, and regional partners) to maintain stability and counter strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific region.

3. Trade and Economic Diplomacy

  • Diversification and Global Markets: Parties across the political spectrum widely support expanding New Zealand’s trade footprint, though with different emphases:
    • Centre-right and mainstream parties typically favor deepening bilateral and plurilateral free trade agreements, expanding access in Asia, and supporting export-led economic growth.
    • Left-leaning and minor parties often tie trade policy to enforceable environmental standards, labor rights protections, and reducing carbon footprints associated with long-haul shipping. Proposals from groups like Te Pāti Māori also float specialized structures like a dedicated Māori Trade Commission to boost Indigenous export frameworks.

Summary Table of Core Stances

Policy Area Centre-Right / Government Alignment (National, ACT, NZ First) Centre-Left / Progressive (Labour, Greens) Minor / Independent Parties
Foreign Alliances Maintain and strengthen traditional democratic partnerships and security arrangements. Independent foreign policy; strong emphasis on multilateralism, UN frameworks, and international law. Skepticism of major military pacts; calls for neutrality or withdrawal from specific security alignments.
Defence & Security Focus on operational capability, interoperability with allies, and regional Indo-Pacific deterrence. Prioritize Pacific-focused aid, climate security, humanitarian disaster response, and peacekeeping. Radical restructuring toward military neutrality or strictly non-combat civil defence.
Trade Policy Pursue market expansion, commercial export growth, and competitive trade agreements. Balance market access with strict labor, environmental, and climate accountability. Implement rigorous national interest and ethical checks on trade deals.

Would you like to explore a specific party's manifesto or dive deeper into another policy domain for the 2026 election?

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For the 2026 New Zealand general election: Compare parties' positions on foreign relationships, defence, trade and regional security.

For the November 7, 2026 New Zealand general election, political parties outline distinct visions for the country’s place in the world, balancing traditional Western partnerships, Indo-Pacific economic engagement, Pacific regional aid, and national defense commitments.

As documented in policy platforms and reported by outlets like the

New Zealand Herald

and platforms like

Policy.nz

, the major parties approach foreign relationships, defence, trade, and regional security through the following positions:

National Party

  • Foreign Relationships & Regional Security: Maintains a traditional alignment with core Western and democratic security partners (such as the US, Australia, and European nations), emphasizing deterrence and stability in the Indo-Pacific. National places strong emphasis on traditional diplomatic ties while managing complex relationships with major economic partners like China. [Policy.nz]

  • Defence & Aid: Focuses on fiscal constraint within the public service, proposing cost savings across government departments including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT). National has proposed reallocating portions of foreign aid budgets toward domestic priorities such as health and Pharmac funding, while still supporting core defence readiness. [NZ Herald]

  • Trade: Places heavy emphasis on export-led economic growth, pursuing active trade diversification and strengthening bilateral and multilateral commercial ties across Asia and traditional Western markets to support economic recovery.

Labour Party

  • Foreign Relationships & Regional Security: Advocates for an independent foreign policy framework that prioritizes multilateralism, adherence to international law, and constructive engagement in the Pacific. Labour emphasizes strong diplomatic partnerships within the Pacific Islands Forum and cooperative security.

  • Defence & Aid: Supports sustained investment in the New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) to handle regional humanitarian assistance, disaster relief, and maritime surveillance, alongside cooperative training with regional partners. Supports international development assistance (foreign aid) as an essential tool for regional stability and climate resilience in the Pacific.

  • Trade: Promotes free and fair trade agreements that incorporate high environmental and labour standards, supporting New Zealand exporters while deepening integration within Asia-Pacific trade frameworks.

Green Party

  • Foreign Relationships & Regional Security: Advocates for a shift toward independent, peace-focused diplomacy and what it terms "military neutrality," expressing skepticism toward broader military pacts or alignment with major power blocs. The Greens emphasize global human rights advocacy, calling for independent positions on international conflicts (such as formally recognizing the state of Palestine).

  • Defence & Aid: Proposes redirecting focus and resources away from combat military capabilities toward civil defence, climate adaptation aid, and humanitarian disaster response. The party strongly champions increasing New Zealand’s official development assistance (ODA) toward the UN target of 0.7% of GDP, with a heavy emphasis on dedicated climate-vulnerable aid for Pacific neighbours.

  • Trade: Views international trade agreements through the lens of ecological sustainability, arguing that trade policy must align with global climate commitments and oppose arrangements that compromise environmental or local sovereignty standards. [Policy.nz]

New Zealand First

  • Foreign Relationships & Regional Security: Pursues a fiercely independent and pragmatic foreign policy ("independent and well-defended"), prioritizing New Zealand’s sovereign national interest above adherence to any single international bloc.

Winston Peters

and

NZ First

emphasize stability and security partnerships primarily within the immediate Pacific neighborhood and traditional realms (Five Eyes, Australia).

  • Defence & Aid: Strongly supports bolstering the operational readiness and capabilities of the New Zealand Defence Force and police to secure national borders and support the realm countries (Cook Islands, Niue, Tokelau) and the wider Pacific. Critiques overseas development assistance cuts or aid shifts if they do not directly benefit New Zealand’s strategic or regional security interests.

  • Trade: Focuses heavily on pragmatic, results-driven economic diplomacy, asserting that New Zealand must actively protect and expand its export markets across Asia and worldwide without ideological prerequisites. [NZ Herald]

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