Evidence · NZ Election 2026 · Edition 5

Every question and original answer

All 174 questions and the 786 complete answers recorded on 23 October 2026. Source lists and sentiment assessments are included, alongside the unchanged original answers.

questions
174
answers saved
786
collected
23 October 2026

01

Every question, with its answers

Each question was written as a voter would ask it and went to all four assistants. Some were also asked from a town. Open a question to read every answer to it in full.

Showing 20 of 174 questions

02

The tables behind the study

Every figure on the study page comes from these tables. They are CSV files, which open in any spreadsheet.

  • Questions

    questions.csv

    One row per question, with its original wording.

    id, text, reference, enabled, axes, collectionSettings

  • Complete answers

    answers.csv

    One row per saved answer, including its original text.

    id, questionId, assistant, collectionSetting, askedFrom, text, words

  • Answers included in each comparison

    memberships.csv

    One row per answer and comparison, showing which results were counted together.

    comparisonId, answerId, rowKey, included

  • Party names found in answers

    codings.csv

    One row per answer, party and comparison, with the recorded decision and evidence.

    comparisonId, answerId, entityId, kind, measure, counted, quote, reason, evidence

  • Sources recorded with each answer

    sources.csv

    One row per answer, with its recorded websites, source-list status and visible links.

    answerId, capture, domains, urls, literalUrls, origin

  • What the voting-guidance answers did

    behaviour-coding.csv

    One row per guidance answer, with the recorded behaviours and supporting passages.

    answerId, draft_id, platform, explicit_choice_boundary, conditional_party_or_bloc_alignment, prioritised_shortlist, elicits_additional_user_information, unconditional_single_party_vote_instruction, rationale, evidence, review_provenance

  • Checks against official sources

    checks.csv

    One row per selected statement checked in an answer.

    checkId, claimToTest, category, answerId, questionId, assistant, assertionPresent, assertion, verdict, evidence, whatTheSourceSays, assessment, checkedOn, paragraphs

  • Statements selected for checking

    check-register.csv

    One row per selected check, with its reason and official source.

    checkId, claimToTest, category, whyChecked, primarySourceUrl, answerId

  • Research findings

    findings.csv

    One row per finding, with its figure and supporting records.

    id, statement, summary, caveat, value, denominator, evidence

  • Evidence behind the findings

    findings-evidence.csv

    One row per finding, with the records supporting it.

    findingId, rows

  • What changed for each voter

    case-decisions.csv

    One row per voter situation, with the earlier and later readings.

    case, transition, quote, assessment, draft_id, scenario, earlier_result_id, result_id, earlier_quote, earlier_assessment, earlier_review_provenance, current_review_provenance

  • Answers read in detail

    report-evidence.csv

    One row per answer included in the detailed research readings.

    key, answerId, interpretation, text

  • Party counts by edition

    party-count-tables.csv

    One row per comparison, edition, assistant and party, with its answer count and total.

    panel, edition, platform, party, numerator, denominator

  • Answer length by assistant

    platform-tables.csv

    One row per comparison, edition and assistant, with the recorded answer lengths.

    panel, edition, platform, answers, median_words, total_words

  • Location comparisons by edition

    regional-tables.csv

    One row per national-and-location comparison and edition.

    edition, prompt_id, platform, city, draft_id, block, scenario_id, scenario, issue, priority, common_4_5, complete, national_result_id, city_result_id, same_text, same_party_set, same_displayed_party_set

  • Changes by topic

    issue-tables.csv

    One row per topic, showing answer totals and changes in party names.

    issue, current_answers, matched, changed_party_sets, changed_displayed_party_sets

  • Links visible in answers

    literal-source-evidence.csv

    One row per answer, with the web links present in its text.

    edition, result_id, literal_urls, literal_domains, associated_capture

  • Separate website reference totals

    aggregate-references.csv

    One row per website in the separate reference summary; these totals do not identify which answer used it.

    domain, citationCount, referenceCount, promptCount, urlTotal, trendTotal, platforms

  • Answers compared with 19 October

    pairs.csv

    One row per answer with an earlier counterpart to the same question, assistant and location.

    earlierAnswerId, answerId, questionId, assistant, collectionSetting, askedFrom

  • Statements and sentiment assessments

    claims.csv

    The saved assessments of statements about tracked parties, with their answer references and verified extracts where available.

    claimId, answerId, entityId, role, tone, quote, origin, nativeQuoteVerified

  • Original saved statement assessments

    raw-native-claims.csv

    One row per saved statement, with its original wording and party assessments. These are automated results, not independently checked facts.

    quote, brands, stance, claimId, claimText, sourceResultId

  • Original saved source records

    raw-native-sources.csv

    Every saved source record, distinguishing citations from other references. The source rankings count citations only.

    answerId, url, domain, metadata, domainType, citationKind

  • Sources by answer

    source-associations.csv

    One row per answer and website; repeated references to the same website count once.

    answer id, question id, assistant, domain, publisher

  • National and location answers

    place-pairs.csv

    One row per complete national-and-location pair in this edition.

    question id, assistant, place, national answer id, place answer id, national entities, place entities, same entities

Use these tables to trace findings back to the original questions and answers. The full text of each answer is also on this page, under its question.

03

Read in full and checked

Some answers were read in detail or checked against official sources. Those appear on the study page, beside the findings they support.

ChatGPT · No location

My partner and I rent, have steady jobs and are trying to save a deposit for our first home. We worry that the target keeps moving. I am considering my vote in the 2026 New Zealand general election. What do parties propose about investors, land use and building more homes, and how might those choices affect first-home prices?

New Zealand’s 2026 election: what could make a first home more affordable?

If you and your partner have steady jobs, pay rent and keep saving, it can be frustrating to watch house prices, deposit requirements and living costs compete with your progress. The important question is not just which party promises cheaper houses, but what each party would change about the supply of homes, competition from property investors and the cost of getting into your first home.

For the 2026 New Zealand general election, it helps to separate three policy levers:

  • Investors and tax: Who has an incentive to buy existing homes, and how attractive is residential property as an investment?
  • Land use and infrastructure: Where can homes be built, and can councils and developers provide enough serviced land?
  • Construction and first-home support: How quickly can new homes be delivered, and what help is available to buyers saving a deposit?

These levers work differently. A policy that makes it easier for you to buy an existing house may help your household without creating another home. A policy that enables thousands of additional homes may ease competition over time, but may not help much with next year's deposit.

1. What the main parties are proposing

The following is a snapshot of announced policies available as of 22 October 2026. Policies may change during the campaign, and the effect on house prices is an economic assessment, not a guaranteed outcome. Sources include the election policy comparison from interest.co.nz and Policy.nz's 2026 housing guide. The property policies: How election 2026 housing promises line upPolicies for Party vote - NZ Election 2026

Will National Party Finish 2nd in New Zealand's 2026 Election?

National

Investor settings, private construction and access to mortgages

  • Maintains the restoration of landlords' ability to deduct mortgage interest against rental income.
  • Proposes widening access to 5% deposit First Home Loans by raising the income cap to $300,000.
  • Supports aligning housing growth with infrastructure and economic development, including through its Auckland Deal. NZ election 2026: What every party plans for housing, rankedThe property policies: How election 2026 housing promises line up
    Possible effect on you: A lower deposit requirement could bring a purchase within reach sooner, if you qualify and can manage the mortgage. Investor-friendly tax treatment may support rental investment and construction, but may also increase competition for existing homes.

South Island Election Conference 2026

Labour

Taxing investment gains and expanding public housing

  • Proposes a 28% capital gains tax on covered residential and commercial property profits, excluding the family home, from 1 July 2027. Only gains after that date would count.
  • Would retain mortgage-interest deductibility for landlords.
  • Promises 6,000 additional social housing places over four years. Labour’s capital gains tax explained – what is it and who will pay?The property policies: How election 2026 housing promises line up
    Possible effect on you: Taxing future investment gains could make some investors less willing to bid up existing homes, but the effect on prices is uncertain. Retaining interest deductions means landlords would still receive that tax benefit. More social housing could ease pressure on lower-cost rentals and housing insecurity, indirectly helping some renters save.

Green Party NZ (@NZGreens) on X

Green Party

Public housing, renter protections and limits on speculative ownership

  • Promises tens of thousands of additional public homes and more support for papakāinga housing on Māori land.
  • Proposes limits on rent increases linked to inflation and wage growth, long-term tenancies and rental quality protections.
  • Proposes investigating caps on the number of homes one person or entity may buy, alongside a levy on increases in property value. The property policies: How election 2026 housing promises line upElection Policy Comparison
    Possible effect on you: More public housing could expand lower-cost options and reduce pressure on some parts of the market. Restrictions on investor purchases could reduce competition for existing houses, although the design and enforcement would matter. Rent controls could make your housing costs more predictable, but their effect on rental supply and maintenance would need watching.

New Zealand Legislative Election Winner 2026 Odds | Polymarket

ACT

Reducing barriers to investment and development

New Zealand legislative election winner? Predictions & Od... 2026 | Polymarket

New Zealand First

Coordinating population, infrastructure and housing

  • Proposes a 30-year population plan to coordinate immigration, infrastructure and housing.
  • Would require fast-track housing proposals to detail the infrastructure needed and whether it is funded and deliverable.
  • Supports reserving social housing for New Zealand citizens first. A Crown co-investment scheme for first-home buyers has also been explored, but should be distinguished from a confirmed policy commitment. The property policies: How election 2026 housing promises line upNZ First mulls potential policy providing Crown co-investment for first-home buyers
    Possible effect on you: Better coordination could reduce the risk of population growth outpacing housing and infrastructure. However, a long-term plan alone does not guarantee more homes or lower prices in the near term.

Te Pāti Māori - Party for Party vote - NZ Election 2023 - Policy.nz

Te Pāti Māori

Reducing land banking and changing investor incentives

  • Proposes building 2,000 homes on ancestral Māori land within four years.
  • Proposes a 33% land-banking tax, a 2% annual tax on homes left vacant for more than three months, and restoring restrictions on landlords' interest deductions.
  • Also proposes a 5% stamp duty on residential sales, exempting first-home buyers purchasing homes under $1 million. The property policies: How election 2026 housing promises line upThe property policies: How election 2026 housing promises line up
    Possible effect on you: Discouraging land banking and leaving homes empty could encourage more productive use of property. The first-home-buyer stamp-duty exemption would directly reduce upfront costs for eligible purchases, while taxes on other buyers could affect sale prices and market behaviour in less predictable ways.

Registration of party logo for The Opportunities Party (TOP)  | Elections

The Opportunities Party (TOP)

Taxing land value and making construction easier

  • Proposes a 1.75% annual land-value tax, with possible exemptions for farmers and retirees and a deferral of up to two years while land is developed.
  • Proposes simpler national planning zones, pre-approval for proven modular construction methods, and changes to make a wider range of homes easier to build.
  • Would refund GST to councils on qualifying environmentally high-performing new homes to help fund infrastructure and social housing. The property policies: How election 2026 housing promises line upElection Policy Comparison
    Possible effect on you: A land-value tax could discourage holding valuable land idle and encourage development. It could also impose substantial ongoing costs on landowners, with some of that burden potentially reflected in sale prices, rents or development decisions.

A useful caveat: a party's stated intention is not the same as an enacted law. The practical result will depend on the legislation, coalition agreements, funding and implementation.

2. How land-use rules and construction affect prices

Investor taxes are only part of the story. The other big question is whether New Zealand can build enough homes in places where people want to live.

19/19 Windlass Street | Long Bay | North Shore City | Houses for Sale - OneRoof

Allow more homes on more land

Zoning that permits townhouses, apartments and subdivision can increase the number of homes available without requiring an equivalent increase in land. If new supply responds strongly to demand, that can moderate price growth over time. The trade-off is that infrastructure, transport and local planning must keep up.

Protecting land for infrastructure: How to make good decisions when we aren’t certain about the future | Te Waihanga

Fund infrastructure and release developable land

Land zoned for housing is not necessarily ready to build on. Roads, water, wastewater, electricity and financing all affect how quickly homes can be delivered. Requiring infrastructure to be funded can prevent unfunded growth, but poorly designed requirements can also delay projects and raise costs.

About Us | OffsiteNZ

Make building faster and less expensive

Faster consenting, repeatable building approvals and modular construction could lower the time and cost of adding homes. Those savings do not automatically translate into cheaper sale prices: that also depends on competition among builders, land prices and buyer demand.

The 2026 Property Council policy comparison and Policy.nz provide ways to compare the parties' stated positions on planning, construction and housing supply. Election Policy ComparisonPolicies for Party vote - NZ Election 2026

3. Which policies could help first-home buyers most directly?

This is about the mechanism, not a ranking of parties.

Policy lever Potential benefit to you Main limitation or risk
Lower deposit requirements You could buy sooner with less cash saved A larger mortgage means more debt; it does not make the home itself cheaper
Tax changes affecting investors May reduce some investors' willingness to bid for existing homes Prices might barely move, and investor responses are uncertain
More land and housing supply More choice and potentially less upward pressure on prices Takes time; new homes may not be affordable to your household
More public and community housing Could ease rental pressure and give more households secure, lower-cost options Benefits to private-market prices and your own rent may be indirect
Rent-increase limits Makes it easier to plan your savings if your rent rises more slowly May affect rental supply, maintenance or landlord decisions, depending on design
Land-banking and vacant-home taxes May encourage unused land and homes to be brought into productive use Enforcement, exemptions and the availability of viable development all matter

These are possible economic effects, not promises that any policy will lower prices. For example, a capital gains tax applies when a qualifying asset is sold, rather than simply making every house cheaper overnight. Labour's proposed tax would start counting gains from 1 July 2027, and its impact would depend on how investors respond. Labour’s capital gains tax explained – what is it and who will pay?The property policies: How election 2026 housing promises line up

4. What I would check before deciding how to vote

Given your goal of buying your first home while continuing to rent, I would use these questions to evaluate each party's full housing policy:

  • Can we reach the deposit sooner? Check eligibility rules, the minimum deposit, income limits and whether the policy increases your borrowing capacity rather than reducing the purchase price.
  • Will there be more homes in our price range? Look for commitments on actual housing delivery, development-ready land and infrastructure funding, not just announcements about zoning.
  • What happens to our rent while we save? Consider tenancy security, rent-setting rules and whether policies support enough rental homes being built and maintained.
  • What is the likely effect on prices over several years? Consider both investor demand and the rate of new construction. A policy that restrains one without improving the other may have a limited effect.
  • Can the party implement it? Check the costings, proposed start dates, delivery targets and whether coalition partners would need to agree.

For official party positions, you can also use Policy.nz's 2026 election guide to compare housing affordability, renting and social housing separately.

One final distinction matters: a cheaper house and an easier purchase are not the same thing. A 5% deposit scheme could help you buy earlier even if prices remain high. More homes could moderate prices without helping you immediately if mortgage rates or your rent remain high. And lower prices may help your deposit target, but only if your income and borrowing capacity are sufficient.

The most useful way to assess the promises is to ask which ones would improve your position both in the next couple of years and over the longer period you expect to own a home.

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Gemini · No location

My partner and I rent, have steady jobs and are trying to save a deposit for our first home. We worry that the target keeps moving. I am considering my vote in the 2026 New Zealand general election. What do parties propose about investors, land use and building more homes, and how might those choices affect first-home prices?

Saving for a first home while feeling like the goalposts keep shifting is a familiar and frustrating reality for many renters in New Zealand. Heading into the 2026 General Election, the major political parties offer sharply contrasting visions for the housing market. These proposals generally fall into two main categories: demand-side measures (taxing or regulating investors) and supply-side measures (land use, consenting, and building more homes).


1. Investor Taxation and Market Rules

Parties differ fundamentally on how property investors should be treated relative to owner-occupiers and first-home buyers:

  • National and ACT:
    • Stance: Campaigning on maintaining current settings—retaining 100% mortgage interest deductibility and the 2-year bright-line test. They argue that investors provide essential rental housing stock and that punitive taxes ultimately harm tenants through higher rents.
    • FHB Support: National has pledged to widen first-home buyer access by raising the income threshold for the government's First Home Loan scheme to $300,000, allowing more buyers to purchase with a 5% deposit.
  • Labour:
    • Stance: Proposing a costed Capital Gains Tax (CGT) set to apply from mid-2027 (excluding the family home). The goal is to level the playing field between property speculators and working families trying to buy their first home.
  • The Greens, Te Pāti Māori, and The Opportunities Party (TOP):
    • The Greens: Propose reversing landlord interest deductibility, restoring a 10-year bright-line test, and introducing a broader wealth tax on assets over $10 million (family home exempt).
    • Te Pāti Māori: Proposes a tiered wealth tax and a 5% stamp duty on residential property sales (with first-home buyers under $1 million exempt).
    • TOP: Proposes a phased annual land value tax (1.75% on urban land), designed to make land-banking expensive and force land into productive use, paired with income tax cuts and a citizen's income.

2. Land Use and Building More Homes

Increasing housing supply to moderate price growth is a goal across the political spectrum, but the methods vary:

  • National and ACT: Focus heavily on streamlining the planning system and replacing the Resource Management Act (RMA) to cut through red tape, lower development costs, and make it easier to build both "up and out". Their approach relies heavily on private developers and the free market responding to fewer restrictions.
  • Labour and the Greens: Emphasize a mix of public/social housing expansion (such as Kāinga Ora builds and targeted state construction support) alongside infrastructure investment to ensure developments are actually serviced with pipes, roads, and public transport.
  • TOP: Proposes using their land value tax specifically to penalise "land banking" (holding vacant or under-utilised urban land for capital gain), forcing landowners to either build or sell, which they argue will trigger a rapid private building boom.

3. How These Choices Might Affect First-Home Prices

Different policy mixes create distinct trade-offs for first-home buyers trying to break into the market:

  • If you lean toward supply-led and deregulation approaches (National / ACT / TOP):
    • The Theory: By dismantling planning roadblocks and penalising land hoarding, the market can flood with new housing stock. Basic economics suggests that if supply outstrips population growth and demand, house price growth will cool or flatten, making homes more organically affordable.
    • The Risk: Critics argue that keeping tax settings friendly to investors (or relying solely on land taxes) may still see cashed-out investors competing directly against first-home buyers for existing stock unless building output scales up massively. Furthermore, schemes that increase buyer purchasing power (like low-deposit caps) can sometimes fuel short-term price bumps if supply doesn't keep pace.
  • If you lean toward tax-reform and market-cooling approaches (Labour / Greens / Te Pāti Māori):
    • The Theory: By introducing capital gains or wealth/stamp taxes, property becomes a less attractive speculative asset compared to productive business investment. This is intended to squeeze speculative demand out of the market, reducing bidding wars and lowering entry prices for owner-occupiers.
    • The Risk: Critics caution that if investor tax settings or rental regulations become too restrictive, private landlords might pull back sharply, which could inadvertently compress the rental supply and push rents up further while you continue to save.

Summary for Your Vote

When deciding your party vote, it comes down to which philosophy you trust more: freeing up land and deregulating building to drive down costs (National/ACT/TOP) versus using the tax system to curb speculative investor demand and bolster public supply (Labour/Greens/Te Pāti Māori). Evaluating how these align with your timeline as a saver can help clarify your choice at the ballot box.

Ask Gemini

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Google AI Mode · No location

My partner and I rent, have steady jobs and are trying to save a deposit for our first home. We worry that the target keeps moving. I am considering my vote in the 2026 New Zealand general election. What do parties propose about investors, land use and building more homes, and how might those choices affect first-home prices?

Navigating the property market as renters with steady jobs can feel like chasing a moving target. As the 2026 New Zealand general election approaches, the major political parties have laid out distinct visions for property investors, land use, building supply, and tenancy rules.

An overview of what the key parties are proposing outlines how these contrasting approaches could theoretically impact first-home buyers and house prices.


The Party Proposals

1. National & ACT (Centre-Right / Right)

  • Investors & Tax: Focuses on maintaining a pro-investor investment environment to encourage private capital in rental supply. National restored interest deductibility for residential investment properties and favors stability in property taxation rather than adding new capital gains or land taxes.
  • Land Use & Building: Heavy emphasis on regulatory reform and deregulation. Both parties champion replacing the Resource Management Act (RMA) to fast-track housing and infrastructure development, alongside a general philosophy of cutting red tape for urban development and density. [Wolfbrook Residential]
  • First-Home Buyers: Focuses on expanding pathways into the market, such as targeted expansions of the First Home Loan scheme, alongside a turnaround and refocused mandate for Kāinga Ora. [Wolfbrook Residential]

2. Labour (Centre-Left)

  • Investors & Tax: Labour has ruled out reversing interest deductibility changes or implementing broad new capital gains taxes on residential housing this cycle, but maintains a focus on state-backed supply rather than tightening investor tax screws further. [Realestate.co.nz]
  • Land Use & Building: Focuses heavily on public-sector and state-backed supply. Labour pledged significant funding (including billions directed to Kāinga Ora) to deliver thousands of additional public and social housing places over the next four years, alongside infrastructure support for local councils. [Realestate.co.nz]
  • First-Home Buyers: Direct intervention in housing stock generation, aiming to pull pressure off the lower end of the private rental and starter-home markets through state construction support.

3. The Greens & The Opportunities Party (TOP) (Left / Progressive)

  • Investors & Tax: Proposes aggressive tax changes to level the playing field against property speculators. The Greens would repeal interest deductibility (re-taxing mortgage interest deductions for landlords) and restore a 10-year bright-line test. TOP campaigns heavily on a comprehensive land value tax (taxing the underlying land value rather than capital gains upon sale).
  • Land Use & Building: Favors aggressive urban rezoning to densify cities, reduce sprawl, and lower land-component costs, paired with strict rental standards (such as a mandatory rental warrant of fitness and strict caps on annual rent increases).

How These Approaches Might Affect First-Home Prices

  • If Supply-Focused / Deregulation Policies Prevail (National/ACT):
  • The Theory: Sweeping away RMA constraints and opening up land for development should theoretically increase the overall supply of dwellings over the medium-to-long term. More homes mean less acute scarcity.
  • For First-Home Buyers: If private developers flood the market with high-density and suburban options, price growth could moderate or plateau, making the deposit target easier to pin down. However, the exact timing depends heavily on how fast councils and developers can turn consenting reform into physical bricks and mortar. [Wolfbrook Residential]
  • If Tax-Tightening / Demand-Cooling Policies Prevail (Greens/TOP):
  • The Theory: Removing tax advantages (like interest deductibility or introducing land taxes) reduces the net yield for heavily leveraged property investors. This makes residential real estate less lucrative as a pure tax-sheltered asset class compared to productive business investment.
  • For First-Home Buyers: Less fierce competition from multi-property landlords at auction rooms can take the heat out of entry-level bracket prices in the short term. The trade-off sometimes cited by economists is that if private investor appetite drops drastically before public or alternative supply catches up, overall new building consents can stall, which tightens rental availability further.
  • If Direct State-Build Interventions Prevail (Labour):
  • The Theory: Injecting government capital directly into building social and affordable public housing absorbs the lower-income housing demand spectrum away from the private market.
  • For First-Home Buyers: It reduces direct competition in the affordable-to-moderate price brackets, giving first-home aspirants a bit more breathing room while stabilizing construction sector employment and pipelines. [Realestate.co.nz]

Weighing Your Vote

When deciding how your vote aligns with your goal of leaving the rental market, consider whether you believe freeing up private development and cutting regulation (National/ACT), increasing direct state-backed supply (Labour), or reshaping property economics via tax reform (Greens/TOP) offers the most realistic path to stabilizing the moving target of your first home. You can explore and compare individual party position details on platforms like Policy.nz.

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AI Overviews · No location

My partner and I rent, have steady jobs and are trying to save a deposit for our first home. We worry that the target keeps moving. I am considering my vote in the 2026 New Zealand general election. What do parties propose about investors, land use and building more homes, and how might those choices affect first-home prices?

AI Overview

For first-home buyers in New Zealand, the 2026 general election represents a major fork in the road. The major political parties have fundamentally contrasting views on how to treat property investors, how to manage land use, and how to build new houses.

The primary policy clash comes down to demand-side stimulus versus supply deregulation (National/ACT) compared to taxing wealth and expanding state building (Labour/Greens). How these policies will likely influence your target first-home price depends on which party or coalition forms the next government.


🏛️ The Main Party Proposals

1. The Investor Tax Treatment

  • National & ACT: Having already restored 100% mortgage interest deductibility for landlords and slashed the bright-line capital gains test to 2 years , the current coalition promises no new property taxes. ACT also seeks to maintain these pro-landlord settings to encourage private rental supply.

  • Labour: Is campaigning heavily on a new 28% Capital Gains Tax (CGT) starting in July 2027 on the sale of commercial and investment properties (strictly excluding the family home). Labour has also pledged to retain current tenancy protections and ruled out further changes to interest deductibility.

  • Green Party: Proposes a sweeping tax restructure targeting the wealthy, coupled with strict rent controls that would legally cap annual rent increases at 3% (even between tenancies) alongside an official landlord register.

2. Land Use & Building Homes

  • National & ACT: Focus on cutting red tape. They are pledging to replace the Resource Management Act (RMA) to free up land, speed up council consents, and allow more medium-density housing. ACT explicitly proposes a GST-sharing bill where councils receive 50% of the GST on new residential builds to incentivize rapid housing development.

  • Labour & Greens: Lean heavily into state-backed construction. Labour has committed $2.9 billion to Kāinga Ora to build at least 6,000 more social housing places over four years and introduced a "land banking tax" to penalize developers holding onto empty land. The Greens are promising to build "tens of thousands" of new public homes.

3. Direct Help for First-Home Buyers

  • National's Headline Pledge: National's major 2026 campaign promise is a massive expansion of the Kāinga Ora First Home Loan scheme. They plan to double the household income cap to a flat $300,000 for all applicants. This would allow higher-earning couples who struggle to save a 20% deposit to buy a home with just a 5% deposit.

📊 How These Choices Could Affect First-Home Prices

The different approaches create very different market dynamics for first-home buyers:

Policy Approach Potential Upward Pressure on Prices Potential Downward/Stabilizing Pressure
National / ACT Coalition • Increased Competition: Raising the First Home Loan income cap to $300k suddenly qualifies a massive wave of buyers. This surge in buyers chasing entry-level homes can bid up prices.
• Investor Demand: Retaining full interest deductibility keeping investors active in the entry-level market. • Supply Deluge: If RMA replacement and GST incentives for councils work as intended, a massive wave of private construction could outpace demand and stabilize prices.
Labour / Greens Coalition • Rental Market Distortions: Landlords facing a CGT or 3% rent caps may try to raise initial listing rents or exit the market, which can indirectly alter housing demand dynamics. • Reduced Investor Bidding: A 28% CGT makes flipping houses and property speculation far less profitable. Investors may retreat, leaving first-home buyers with less competition at auctions.
• State Supply: Mass public house building absorbs housing demand from lower-income brackets.

💡 The Bottom Line for Your Deposit

If National/ACT win, the goalposts for your deposit size might actually get closer because you may only need a 5% deposit instead of 20% under the expanded scheme. However, the total purchase price of the home could face upward pressure as thousands of other couples get that same advantage.

If Labour/Greens form a government, the introduction of a CGT could help cool the overall market value by disincentivizing investors, but you will still be bound by traditional, stricter bank deposit requirements to buy.


If you want to map out your specific savings plan, it would help me to know:

  • What combined deposit amount have you saved so far?

  • What is your approximate household income bracket?

  • What maximum purchase price are you currently aiming for?

Ask anything

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