Evidence · NZ Election 2026 · Edition 3

Every question, every answer, every source

All 174 questions and the 793 answers produced on 16 October 2026. The 27 remaining cells produced no AI Overview.

questions
174
answers saved
793
collected
16 Oct 2026

01

Every question, with its answers

Each question was written as a voter would ask it and went to all four assistants. Some were also asked from a town. Open a question to read every answer to it in full.

Showing 20 of 174 questions

02

The tables behind the study

Every figure on the study page comes from these tables. They are CSV files, which open in any spreadsheet.

  • Questions

    nz-election-2026-questions.csv

    One row per unchanged question.

    id, draft, text, voterCode, issue, towns

  • Answers

    nz-election-2026-answers.csv

    One row per produced answer, with its complete original text. Parties covers all 17 tracked parties; displayed parties covers the seven charted parties.

    result id, prompt id, draft id, scenario id, platform, region, words, parties, displayed parties, literal url answer, temporal pair, common four platforms, response text

  • Sources by answer

    nz-election-2026-sources.csv

    One row per website associated with an answer; repeated citations count once.

    answer id, question id, assistant, region, domain, publisher

  • Checks against official sources

    nz-election-2026-checks.csv

    One row per reviewed claim and assistant, including cells where the assertion was not stated.

    checkId, claimToTest, category, answerId, questionId, assistant, assertionPresent, assertion, verdict, whatTheSourceSays, checkedOn, evidence

  • Who to vote for: coding

    nz-election-2026-guidance.csv

    One row per manually reviewed guidance answer. Codes overlap; original answers supply the evidence.

    draft, assistant, q, voter, a, declined, matched, shortlist, asked, chose, extract

  • Location and national answers

    nz-election-2026-towns.csv

    One row per matched national/location pair in this edition.

    edition, prompt id, platform, city region, national result id, city result id, same party names, same text

  • Changes between editions

    nz-election-2026-comparisons.csv

    All 17 tracked parties; one row per identical question, assistant and location across the 12 and 16 October collections. Earlier coding restated after the 20 October identity correction.

    earlier edition, prompt id, platform, region, draft id, block, scenario id, scenario, issue, priority, earlier result id, current result id, same party set, added, removed, earlier parties, current parties

  • No AI Overview produced

    nz-election-2026-coverage.csv

    One row per planned cell where no AI Overview was produced.

    questionId, assistant, collectionSetting, askedFrom, availability

  • Party-identity corrections

    nz-election-2026-party-identity-corrections.csv

    Ten reviewed false matches removed from the restated Edition 2 and current Edition 3 comparisons; original answer text is unchanged.

    edition, result id, party, before present, include, reason, reviewer, reviewed on

Use these tables to trace findings back to the original questions and answers. The full text of each answer is also on this page, under its question.

03

Read in full and checked

Some answers were read in detail or checked against official sources. Those appear on the study page, beside the findings they support.

ChatGPT · No location

I run a small manufacturing business that exports and employs staff. We are considering new equipment but worry about demand, freight costs and finding skilled workers. I am considering my vote in the 2026 New Zealand general election. What do parties propose about trade access, international relationships and risks to New Zealand exports?

New Zealand 2026 election: what trade and foreign-policy differences mean for an exporting manufacturer

As a small New Zealand manufacturer, you're weighing two connected decisions: whether to invest in new equipment and which political direction is most likely to support a stable environment for exporting, employing staff and competing internationally.

The general election is scheduled for Saturday 7 November 2026. The key issues to compare are not simply which parties support free trade, but how they propose to expand market access, manage relationships with major trading partners, respond to overseas tariffs and strengthen New Zealand's productive capacity. The main parties vying to form New Zealand's next governmentPolicy.nz

One immediate consideration is that export risk is already tangible: New Zealand's official trade-barriers guidance says that, from 24 July 2026, most New Zealand goods entering the United States face an additional 12.5% tariff, although exemptions apply to some products. Your exposure depends on your product classification and destination markets. FAQsUS Confirms Section 301 Forced Labour Tariffs on 99% of US imports; New Zealand Subject to 12.5% Additional Duty | New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade

1. What the parties are proposing

The comparison below focuses on the seven parties covered by the 2026 election policy trackers. It separates explicit trade commitments from broader policies that could affect your costs, workforce or investment decisions.

Sources: Policy.nz's 2026 policy guide, The Conversation's election policy tracker and recent party announcements. Policies for Party vote - NZ Election 2026Policies for Party vote - NZ Election 2026Election policy tracker: what the parties are promisingNational Sets Out Plan To Double Exports By 2034

Will National Party Finish 2nd in New Zealand's 2026 Election?

National

Export growth, economic management and international market access

National has announced a plan to double export earnings by 2034. Its broader approach emphasises economic growth and maintaining international commercial relationships. National Sets Out Plan To Double Exports By 2034The main parties vying to form New Zealand's next government

For your business: Examine how the export target would translate into support for manufacturers outside the primary sector, and what measures would help smaller exporters access new markets. An export target alone does not guarantee new customers or lower freight rates.

South Island Election Conference 2026

Labour

Business investment, skills and productive capacity

Labour's published economic proposals include a future fund for infrastructure and innovation, a tax write-off for new equipment costing up to NZ$10,000, extended apprenticeship support and measures to improve small-business cash flow. Election policy tracker: what the parties are promisingThe main parties vying to form New Zealand's next government

For your business: The equipment tax treatment, availability of skilled workers and infrastructure investment are directly relevant to your expansion decision. These policies do not, by themselves, establish a specific new export-market or tariff strategy.

Green Party NZ (@NZGreens) on X

Green Party

International cooperation, environmental policy and energy transition

The Greens' proposals include a stronger role for public investment and renewable energy, alongside a more active environmental and international policy agenda. Their policy platform also includes higher taxes on wealth and large businesses. Policies for Party vote - NZ Election 2026The main parties vying to form New Zealand's next government

For your business: Consider potential opportunities in energy-efficient production and low-emissions supply chains, alongside the possible effects of proposed tax changes on your business and investment plans. Specific export benefits would depend on the policies implemented and your customers' requirements.

POLICY TRACKER: TOP wants to fund cheaper doctor visits with junk-food tax | New Zealand Doctor

ACT New Zealand

Business regulation, private enterprise and labour-market settings

ACT's wider economic approach emphasises private enterprise and reducing regulatory burdens. Its 2026 campaign has also proposed tighter immigration settings, including a surcharge on temporary work visas. The main parties vying to form New Zealand's next governmentThe main parties vying to form New Zealand's next government

For your business: Assess the detail of any proposed regulatory changes against your compliance costs. If you recruit overseas workers or depend on them to fill technical roles, changes to work-visa costs and eligibility could matter just as much as trade policy.

New Zealand legislative election winner? Predictions & Od... 2026 | Polymarket

New Zealand First

Economic intervention and a more independent foreign-policy stance

New Zealand First proposes a more interventionist approach in some domestic markets. Its leader has also advocated withdrawing New Zealand from the Paris climate agreement. The main parties vying to form New Zealand's next governmentAs New Zealand First pushes culture-war policies, analysts warn of limited appeal

For your business: Look closely at how the party would approach overseas trade relationships and climate-related commitments, rather than assuming its domestic economic policies imply a particular export strategy. Changes in climate commitments could also matter to customers or supply chains with emissions-related requirements.

Opportunity (TOP)

Structural economic reform and investment

Opportunity's flagship proposal is a land-value tax intended to fund wider tax changes. Its stated approach focuses on structural reform and economic growth. The main parties vying to form New Zealand's next governmentPolicies for Party vote - NZ Election 2026

For your business: The implications would depend on the full tax package, not just the headline tax. Check whether your premises are owned or leased, how commercial property is treated, and whether the proposed reforms improve the return on new machinery or other productive investment.

New Zealand Legislative Election Winner 2026 Odds | Polymarket

Te Pāti Māori

Māori economic development, environmental protection and Pacific relationships

Its published campaign priorities include housing, health, education, environmental protection and constitutional change. The broader 2026 policy guide also identifies Pacific-focused foreign-policy options among the parties' proposals. The main parties vying to form New Zealand's next governmentPolicies for Party vote - NZ Election 2026

For your business: If you work with Māori-owned suppliers, businesses or development initiatives, examine the detail of policies affecting Māori economic development. For an export manufacturer, the specific trade and industrial commitments need to be checked separately.

Important distinction: These are not seven equally detailed trade-policy programmes. Some of the clearest current commitments concern export targets, equipment investment, skills or international positioning rather than specific tariff negotiations. The effects described above are potential implications, not guaranteed outcomes.

2. How do they differ on international relationships and trade risk?

The clearest contrast is between expanding commercial access, building resilience through diversification, and changing the balance between international cooperation and domestic economic priorities.

Party Specific international or trade position Potential significance for exporters
National Negotiate trade deals with seven new economies over five years, expand digital customs, target non-tariff barriers and conduct at least 23 trade missions. National to pursue the next billion customersNew Zealand's Next Billion Customers New market opportunities and potentially less administrative friction, subject to negotiations and implementation.
Labour Support open trade and high-quality trade agreements, diversify export markets, help smaller exporters use existing agreements, and maintain positive relationships with both the US and China. Speech: New Zealand; an independent voice in the worldRelease: Labour to support India free trade agreement Market diversification and practical help accessing markets, alongside a focus on domestic manufacturing resilience.
Greens Trade and foreign investment policy explicitly prioritises sustainability and justice. Complete Party Policy Examine how environmental requirements, sustainable investment and customer expectations could affect your sector.
ACT Proposes removing the net-zero target, reducing carbon-market costs and opposing additional climate taxes. ACT New Zealand Potential changes to domestic production costs, while overseas environmental requirements would still apply.
NZ First Advocates withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement. As New Zealand First pushes culture-war policies, analysts warn of limited appeal Consider possible implications for climate-related trade relationships and customers' requirements; withdrawal alone would not automatically remove overseas product standards.
Opportunity Its flagship economic reform is a land-value tax to fund wider tax changes. The main parties vying to form New Zealand's next government The effect on your investment capacity depends on the complete tax package and how it treats business property and other assets.
Te Pāti Māori Its stated campaign priorities include environmental protection and broader economic and social reforms. The main parties vying to form New Zealand's next government Check specific trade, industrial and Māori economic-development proposals relevant to your supply chain and markets.

These positions are not mutually exclusive. For example, market diversification and stronger local manufacturing can both be pursued. The practical difference is which measures a party commits to, how it intends to fund them, and which international relationships it prioritises.

3. The export risks worth examining before buying equipment

Market access and tariffs

New trade agreements can reduce tariffs and other barriers, but an agreement does not eliminate every risk. The current US tariff arrangements illustrate how overseas policy changes can affect landed prices. Check the applicable tariff classification and exemptions for your actual products. FAQsUS Confirms Section 301 Forced Labour Tariffs on 99% of US imports; New Zealand Subject to 12.5% Additional Duty | New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade

Freight and supply-chain disruption

Trade agreements do not guarantee cheaper shipping, reliable vessel capacity or lower fuel costs. National's proposals for essential-supplies agreements and digital customs, and Labour's emphasis on supply-chain resilience, address different parts of the problem. Neither guarantees lower freight bills. New Zealand's Next Billion CustomersSpeech: New Zealand; an independent voice in the world

Skilled labour

Compare apprenticeship funding, technical training, immigration settings and employer costs. Labour has announced apprenticeship and equipment-investment measures; ACT has proposed higher charges for temporary work visas. Check eligibility, commencement dates and the final details rather than assuming all manufacturers will qualify. Election policy tracker: what the parties are promisingThe main parties vying to form New Zealand's next government

Demand and return on investment

An export-growth target is not a forecast of demand for your product. Before committing capital, test your business case against lower order volumes, higher freight costs, changes in exchange rates and delays in recruiting or training staff. Consider whether the equipment can serve several product lines or customer markets.

4. A practical way to compare the parties for your business

Rather than choosing on the basis of a single headline policy, assess the proposals against the risks you actually face.

Your business-policy checklist

Select the issues you want to prioritise when reviewing party manifestos.

New export marketsSpecific trade negotiations, sector-specific trade missions and help for small exporters.

Protection against overseas shocksMarket diversification, supply-chain agreements and a credible response to tariff changes.

Equipment investmentTax treatment, depreciation or expensing rules, financing and access to productive infrastructure.

Skilled workforceApprenticeships, technical training, work visas and the cost of hiring.

Operating costsFreight infrastructure, energy, regulatory compliance and climate-related costs.

Compare parties on my selected priorities

For a broader side-by-side policy comparison, use Policy.nz's 2026 election guide, particularly its economy and defence and foreign affairs sections. You can also review National's detailed trade policy and Labour's foreign-policy statement.

The key question for your equipment decision is what happens under several plausible futures, not just the one each party hopes to deliver. Look for commitments that directly affect your customers, export routes, staffing and investment costs, and distinguish policies already in force from campaign promises that would require legislation, funding or successful international negotiations.

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Gemini · No location

I run a small manufacturing business that exports and employs staff. We are considering new equipment but worry about demand, freight costs and finding skilled workers. I am considering my vote in the 2026 New Zealand general election. What do parties propose about trade access, international relationships and risks to New Zealand exports?

As a small manufacturing exporter balancing equipment investment, freight overheads, and skill shortages, your perspective touches on the core economic debates of the 2026 New Zealand general election. Business advocacy groups like ExportNZ and the EMA have framed this election around supply-chain resilience, export market diversification, and productivity.

The major political parties approach trade access, international relationships, and export risk management through distinct lenses:


1. Trade Access and Expanding Markets

  • National and the Centre-Right (ACT, NZ First):
    • Generally champion a continuation and aggressive leveraging of traditional and new Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), focusing heavily on commercial outcomes.
    • National emphasizes reducing domestic regulatory friction (such as streamlining resource management and consenting) so local exporters can scale up faster to meet international demand.
    • NZ First places a strong emphasis on economic nationalism and protecting strategic domestic industries, while still supporting targeted trade expansion that benefits primary and manufacturing sectors.
  • Labour and the Centre-Left (Green Party, Te Pāti Māori):
    • Support rules-based international trade but tie trade policy more closely to environmental, labor, and sustainability standards.
    • Labour emphasizes maintaining strong relationships within the Asia-Pacific region and utilizing frameworks like the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), while ensuring trade agreements do not undermine local wages or climate commitments.
    • The Green Party and Te Pāti Māori scrutinize traditional trade deals further through an ecological and equitable lens, advocating that exports must align with strict low-emissions pathways to retain trust in premium markets.

2. International Relationships and Geopolitical Risks

  • Managing Global Instability & Tariffs: With global trade tensions (such as shifting U.S. policies or broader protectionism) posing a threat to open commerce, business groups like the EMA are actively pushing parties to help smaller exporters diversify into emerging markets.
  • National / ACT: Favor pragmatic, traditional security and economic alliances (such as traditional Western partners and deepening ties across South and Southeast Asia) while keeping a heavy focus on open market access and minimizing red tape for foreign exchange.
  • Labour / Progressive Parties: Tend to emphasize independent foreign policy, strengthening multilateral institutions (like the WTO), and leveraging New Zealand's "clean, green" reputation internationally. They view climate change and environmental degradation as primary systemic risks to long-term export market access, noting that international consumers increasingly demand robust sustainability credentials.

3. Addressing Export Risks (Freight Costs, Supply Chains, and Skills)

While trade access relies heavily on international agreements, your immediate risks—freight, infrastructure, and skilled labor—are addressed domestically by the parties:

  • Infrastructure & Freight Resilience: Centre-right parties lean into roading investments, supply chain efficiencies, and freight-mode flexibility to lower internal transport bottlenecks. Business groups like Transporting New Zealand and the Sustainable Business Council have lobbied all parties for bipartisan commitment to freight resilience and decarbonizing heavy transport without punishing operational costs.
  • Skills and Immigration:
    • Centre-right parties generally favor employer-led immigration settings that respond dynamically to documented skill shortages in manufacturing and trades.
    • Centre-left parties typically emphasize upskilling the domestic workforce through targeted vocational training and polytechnic reforms, alongside tighter controls to ensure migrant labor is only used where domestic pipelines cannot meet demand.

Consideration for Your Vote

When evaluating your vote as a manufacturing exporter, consider which party's framework best mitigates your specific risks:

  • Do you lean toward parties promising uncompromising regulatory relief, lower compliance/tax costs, and aggressive market pursuit (National/ACT)?
  • Or do you favor parties focusing on stable, state-backed infrastructure frameworks, workforce upskilling, and strict environmental alignment to protect New Zealand’s clean-export brand (Labour/Greens)?

Are you leaning toward a specific approach for your business, or would you like to explore how different tax and skills policies from the parties might impact your upcoming equipment investment?

Ask Gemini

Gemini is AI and can make mistakes.

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Google AI Mode · No location

I run a small manufacturing business that exports and employs staff. We are considering new equipment but worry about demand, freight costs and finding skilled workers. I am considering my vote in the 2026 New Zealand general election. What do parties propose about trade access, international relationships and risks to New Zealand exports?

Running a small manufacturing business with international exposure means balancing global uncertainties—like shifting freight networks and geopolitical tensions—with domestic pressures like skills shortages.

In the lead-up to the 2026 New Zealand general election , political parties have outlined distinct approaches to trade access, international relations, and mitigating risks for local exporters. Here is a breakdown of how the major parties' platforms align with your core concerns:

1. Trade Access and Expanding Markets

  • National: Focuses heavily on aggressively pursuing and prioritizing new free trade agreements (prioritizing a targeted list of about seven partner nations) and leveraging digital/AI-driven mechanisms to cut red tape for exporters. Their strategy heavily emphasizes bilateral commercial deals and reducing non-tariff barriers.

  • Labour: Generally emphasizes deepening existing trade architecture, supporting regional economic integration (particularly in the Indo-Pacific), and ensuring that free trade agreements deliver tangible sustainability and labor protections alongside market access.

  • NZ First: Emphasizes a fiercely independent foreign policy and pragmatic trade diversification, supporting trade with traditional and emerging partners alike while prioritizing national sovereignty in economic relationships.

  • ACT / The Opportunities Party (TOP): Tend to favor broad, unencumbered free-trade frameworks, reducing domestic regulatory and tariff-adjacent overhead, and lowering barriers to foreign investment to boost domestic productivity and supply-chain resilience.

2. International Relationships and Geopolitical Risk

  • National & ACT: Center their foreign policy on traditional Western and Indo-Pacific security and economic alignments (such as strong ties with Australia, the US, and key Asian partners), viewing stability through traditional security partnerships and open, rules-based commercial lanes.

  • Labour & Green Parties: Place a greater emphasis on multilateralism, supporting independent foreign policy positions within the Pacific, and addressing climate-related vulnerabilities in international supply chains. The Green Party specifically advocates for aligning trade policies with strict global environmental and emissions standards.

  • NZ First: Advocates for a realist foreign policy, focusing heavily on bolstering relationships and climate/security aid within the Pacific realm while managing major-power competition carefully to protect New Zealand’s export-driven economy from external shocks.

3. Mitigating Risks to Exports (Freight, Demand, and Skills)

  • Infrastructure and Freight Costs: Parties propose varying mechanisms to handle transport and logistics bottlenecks. National and ACT focus on infrastructure pipelines and reducing compliance/fuel costs for transport operators, whereas Labour and the Greens lean into regional development funds and targeted industry support.

  • Skills and Workforce Constraints:

  • Right-leaning parties (National, ACT) generally propose streamlining immigration settings to make it easier for businesses to source specific skilled workers from overseas, alongside looser regulatory burdens on small-to-medium enterprises (SMEs).

  • Left-leaning and centrist parties (Labour, Greens) emphasize domestic workforce development, vocational training programs, and industry-tied education investments to upskill the local workforce.

  • Business & Export Advocacy: Organizations like ExportNZ have actively pushed pre-election blueprints focusing on tackling non-tariff barriers, boosting export capability, and refining government-industry partnerships to help smaller niches compete globally. You can explore detailed, side-by-side comparisons on platforms like Policy.nz.

To help narrow down which party approach best fits your manufacturing operation, tell me:

  • Are you more concerned about finding skilled local labour versus bringing in specialized overseas talent?
  • Is your primary market exposure Australia/Asia or further abroad (e.g., US/Europe)?

I can tailor a more specific look at how individual party manifestos address those exact pressures.

Ask anything

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AI Overviews · No location

I run a small manufacturing business that exports and employs staff. We are considering new equipment but worry about demand, freight costs and finding skilled workers. I am considering my vote in the 2026 New Zealand general election. What do parties propose about trade access, international relationships and risks to New Zealand exports?

AI Overview

For the 2026 New Zealand general election , political parties are addressing trade access, international relationships, and export risks with distinct approaches. National is prioritizing aggressive free-trade expansion into developing markets and multilateral supply-chain security to shield exporters from global conflict shocks. Labour and NZ First focus more on building domestic manufacturing resilience, offer equipment tax breaks or lowered SME corporate taxes, and provide innovation funds to offset high global freight costs.


🌐 Party Platforms on Trade & International Relations

The main political parties propose different paths to support exporters and manage international supply chain vulnerabilities:

1. National Party: Market Diversification & Supply Chain Protection

National’s trade agenda centers on securing the “next billion customers” by proactively expanding New Zealand’s trade agreements:

  • New Free Trade Tranches: National plans to launch negotiations with seven priority markets within five years: Brazil , Switzerland, Argentina, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Uruguay, and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA). A second tranche over the next decade targets South Africa , Turkey, Colombia, Morocco, Sri Lanka, and Mauritius.
  • Supply Chain Security: To mitigate geopolitical export risks (like Middle East shipping disruptions), National leverages the Future of Investment and Trade (FIT) Partnership (with Singapore, UAE, Switzerland, etc.) to keep essential trade lanes open, transparent, and resilient.
  • Trans-Tasman Alignment: They have accelerated efforts toward a more ambitious Single Economic Market (SEM) with Australia to ease regulatory friction for the 25,000 businesses trading across the ditch.

2. Labour Party: Innovation Cushions & Equipment Deductions

Labour addresses export performance by attempting to lower domestic manufacturing overheads and promoting high-value innovation:

  • Equipment & Tech Tax Writes-Offs: Labour's Small Business Action Plan allows a direct tax write-off for new equipment up to $10,000 , which could directly assist your decision to purchase new machinery.
  • Innovation Fund: They propose a seed-funded New Zealand Future Fund aimed at infrastructure and commercial innovation, addressing a core economic risk—that New Zealand firms struggle to double exports without substantial investment in globally competitive, world-class products.
  • Pacific Integration: Labour intends to expand visa-waiver travel to Pacific citizens, easing regional commercial relationships.

3. New Zealand First: Cost Reductions & Resource Sovereignty

NZ First focuses on insulating local businesses from international shocks through domestic economic nationalism and severe cost reductions:

  • SME Corporate Tax Cut: To counter global inflation and demand drops, NZ First proposes reducing the company tax rate from 28% down to 20% for small and medium enterprises with a turnover under $30 million.
  • Energy Costs & Isolation Risks: They propose breaking up major electricity "gentailers" and establishing a Marsden Point Special Economic Zone to secure local fuel and manufacturing energy prices against international market volatility.
  • Global Agreement Rollbacks: The party advocates for New Zealand to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement to protect domestic producers from international compliance costs.

📊 Quick Comparison for Manufacturing Exporters

Policy Focus National Party Labour Party NZ First
Trade Strategy Aggressive expansion into 13+ new economies across 5 continents Closer Single Economic Market alignment with Australia Strategic focus on domestic resource security
Direct SME Relief Streamlined digital export tools & border processes $10,000 tax write-off for new equipment; faster invoice payments 20% corporate tax rate for businesses under $30M turnover
Export Risk Mitigation Multilateral trade agreements (FIT Partnership) to secure shipping lines Innovation seed funding via NZ Future Fund Breaking up energy duopolies to lower manufacturing fuel/power bills

If you'd like to dive deeper, let me know if finding skilled workers (immigration vs. local training policies) or freight infrastructure funding is the next biggest factor for your upcoming equipment investment.

Ask anything

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