How the 2026 election could affect New Zealand manufacturers and exporters

For a small manufacturing business that exports goods and employs staff, energy and fuel policy is not just an environmental issue. It can affect:

• Production costs: electricity, natural gas, diesel and other process fuels.
• Freight costs: transporting raw materials to your factory and finished products to ports and customers.
• Investment decisions: whether new machinery should be electric, gas-powered or use another energy source.
• Export competitiveness: whether your production costs remain competitive against overseas manufacturers.
• Staff availability: whether there are enough electricians, engineers, technicians and heavy-vehicle drivers to operate and maintain equipment.

The key political difference in the 2026 election is how parties propose to achieve reliable, affordable energy: through more domestic gas and imported LNG, or through renewable electricity, storage and electrification.

The comparison below reflects policies and announcements available as at 31 October 2026, ahead of the 7 November general election. It distinguishes published commitments from existing government measures and proposals that are not yet fully developed.

1. Comparing the parties' energy policies

The following is a practical comparison of the main parties' approaches and their potential implications for manufacturers.

Party	Main energy approach	Potential business implications
National	More renewable generation, private investment, domestic gas exploration and an LNG import facility.	More options for gas-dependent manufacturers and a focus on electricity supply, but exposure to internationally priced LNG.
Labour	More renewable electricity, solar and batteries, business electrification and electricity-market reform. Opposes the proposed LNG terminal.	Potential support for electrifying production, but uncertainty for businesses relying on gas.
ACT	Market-led electricity investment, domestic gas exploration and LNG as backup.	Greater policy support for retaining gas-powered industrial processes and private-sector energy investment.
NZ First	More domestic gas exploration, a $1 billion subsurface survey, electricity-market restructuring and a Marsden Point special economic zone.	Potential opportunities around domestic energy supply, industrial development and energy infrastructure, although new gas discoveries would take years.
Green Party	Public investment in renewable generation, batteries, electrification and reduced reliance on fossil fuels.	Opportunities for businesses investing in electric machinery, but less policy support for continued gas dependence.
Te Pāti Māori	Community-owned renewable energy, geothermal, storage and energy independence. Opposes LNG imports.	Potential opportunities in decentralised renewable energy, but a different approach to industrial energy security.
The Opportunity Party (TOP)	Large-scale renewable generation, a proposed 30 GW expansion by 2050 and electricity-sector restructuring.	Potential long-term benefits from increased renewable supply, but the generation expansion is a long-term ambition rather than immediate capacity.

Sources: party policy comparisons by MinterEllisonRuddWatts and Sustainability Partners. The politics of power: Comparing energy policies ahead of Election 2026Gas and the 2026 NZ election: where the parties standNZ Political Party Energy Policies — 2026

What this means for your electricity costs

There are two important approaches.

The gas-security approach: National, ACT and NZ First

These parties place greater emphasis on keeping gas available to support electricity generation and industrial users.

The proposed LNG terminal is particularly relevant because New Zealand's domestic gas supply is declining. The Māui field operator has indicated production will cease by the end of 2026.

For a manufacturer using gas for industrial heating, drying, boilers or other processes, this matters because:

• More available gas could help maintain continuity of supply.
• LNG could provide another source of supply during shortages.
• Imported LNG would expose New Zealand to international gas prices and import infrastructure costs.
• New domestic exploration would not necessarily provide additional supply quickly.

National's existing Gas Transition Loan Guarantee Scheme is also relevant. It provides an 80% Crown guarantee on eligible business loans, supporting up to $1.2 billion of lending. It targets businesses using at least 1,000 GJ of gas annually.

The electrification approach: Labour, Greens, Te Pāti Māori and TOP

These parties place greater emphasis on renewable electricity, storage, solar and reducing reliance on fossil fuels.

Potential benefits for manufacturers include:

• More opportunities to operate electric production machinery.
• Lower exposure to natural gas supply shortages.
• Potential savings from solar generation and battery storage.
• Greater opportunities to sell excess electricity back to the grid.

However, there is an important distinction between generating renewable electricity and making it reliably available when a factory needs it.

A manufacturer operating continuously needs dependable electricity, including during dry hydro periods, winter peaks and periods of low wind generation.

The central question is whether investment in generation, transmission and storage will keep pace with industrial demand. Gas and the 2026 NZ election: where the parties standThe politics of power: Comparing energy policies ahead of Election 2026

2. Fuel and freight costs: a particularly important issue for exporters

For an exporting manufacturer, diesel costs can affect the business several times over:

1. Incoming freight for raw materials.
2. Transport between factories, warehouses and distribution centres.
3. Transport of finished goods to ports.
4. Shipping-related costs and international supply-chain surcharges.

A government's influence on these costs comes through fuel taxation, road-user charges, road investment, freight infrastructure and incentives for alternative vehicles.

National

National proposes:

• Cancelling the scheduled 2027 fuel excise and equivalent road-user charge increases.
• Introducing five-cent-per-litre increases every six months from January 2028 for two years, followed by annual five-cent increases from 2030.
• Moving towards electronic road-user charging based on vehicle distance and weight.
• Continuing investment in road maintenance and freight resilience.

For your business, the delayed increases could provide some short-term relief, but the later increases matter if you operate diesel vehicles or pay transport contractors.

National also identifies rail, ports and coastal shipping as important components of freight resilience. Where the parties stand on transport | The Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport

Labour

Labour proposes:

• No fuel excise or road-user charge increases for three years.
• A three-year fuel excise freeze.
• A $20 weekly public transport fare cap in Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch, and $10 elsewhere.
• Greater attention to rail freight and resilient Cook Strait ferry connections.

For a manufacturer paying substantial road-freight bills, avoiding scheduled fuel-tax increases could help limit one component of transport-cost inflation.

However, Labour's transport spokesperson says the reduced revenue would require transport projects to be scaled back. The implications for individual road and freight projects need to be examined.

The proposed fuel-tax freeze does not control the underlying international price of diesel. Where the parties stand on transport | The Chartered Institute of Logistics and TransportLabour's 2026 Election Policies

Green Party

The Greens propose:

• More investment in rail freight.
• Greater use of coastal shipping.
• Electrification of trucks and other transport.
• More electric vehicle charging infrastructure.
• A shift towards public investment in sustainable transport.

For exporters, greater rail and coastal shipping capacity could eventually provide alternatives to road transport, particularly for longer domestic freight routes.

However, these changes require infrastructure, suitable freight services and reliable connections to ports. They are not an immediate replacement for diesel trucks. Where the parties stand on transport | The Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport

ACT, NZ First, Te Pāti Māori and TOP

Their energy platforms provide some relevant direction, but there is less directly comparable published detail on the specific cost of diesel freight.

• ACT emphasises market-led investment and a more practical approach to energy supply.
• NZ First proposes additional strategic fuel reserves and a Marsden Point special economic zone, alongside domestic energy development.
• Te Pāti Māori emphasises energy independence, renewable generation and storage.
• TOP proposes incentives for business electric vehicle purchases, including accelerated depreciation and a temporary fringe-benefit-tax exemption for qualifying new business EVs.

It is worth distinguishing fuel security from fuel affordability: having more fuel in reserve may improve resilience during a disruption, but it does not automatically reduce the price a freight operator pays. NZ Political Party Energy Policies — 2026Gas and the 2026 NZ election: where the parties standThe 'electric election': energy policies, side by side

3. Skilled workers and manufacturing productivity

Energy policies can also influence the availability of skilled people.

For example, electrifying a factory may require:

• Industrial electricians.
• Electrical engineers.
• Automation and control-system technicians.
• Mechanical engineers.
• Specialists in battery systems and energy management.

A factory that continues using gas-powered machinery may have different maintenance and technical workforce requirements.

Some relevant party initiatives include:

• Labour: Its Start Work Now programme includes an ambition to get nearly 30,000 apprentices into work, with expanded Apprenticeship Boost support.
• National: Its approach emphasises employer-led investment, productivity and infrastructure development.
• Greens: Their renewable-energy and transport transition would create demand for electrical, engineering and renewable-energy skills.
• NZ First: Its proposed Marsden Point economic zone could create industrial and energy-related employment opportunities.

An important distinction: announcing investment in renewable infrastructure or apprenticeships does not guarantee that your business will be able to recruit qualified people locally.

For your investment planning, I would look at whether each party has specific commitments to apprenticeships, technical training, employer subsidies and access to skilled migrants, rather than relying on broad promises about job creation.

The Conversation's 2026 policy tracker is useful for comparing employment and training proposals. Election policy tracker: what the parties are promisingOctober AMM Comms: Election 2026 – What the Parties Are Proposing for Employers and Small BusinessesThe politics of power: Comparing energy policies ahead of Election 2026

4. What about your concern over demand?

This is where energy policy needs to be considered alongside the wider economic programme.

Suppose you purchase a $500,000 piece of production equipment. You need confidence that:

• Orders will justify the investment.
• Electricity or fuel will be available at a predictable cost.
• Freight costs will not erode your export margins.
• You can recruit staff to operate the equipment.
• Government policy will not change significantly halfway through the equipment's useful life.

A government can improve energy supply without necessarily creating additional customers for your products.

Likewise, cheaper diesel does not guarantee higher export demand.

For that reason, I would distinguish between three types of government policy:

Policy area	What you should look for
Business demand	Export assistance, trade agreements, overseas market development and domestic infrastructure investment.
Business investment	Equipment depreciation, investment tax incentives, access to finance and R&D support.
Operating costs	Electricity pricing, fuel taxation, freight infrastructure and workforce availability.

For example, Labour has proposed a tax write-off for new equipment costing up to $10,000, while other parties have different approaches to business investment and taxation. This is worth examining separately from their energy policies. Election policy tracker: what the parties are promising2026 General Election Policies: What they could mean for businesses | New ZealandElection 2026: What Do the Parties' Fiscal Plans Mean for Business?

5. Comparing the implications for your business

Here is a practical way to assess the differences without assuming that any party will necessarily deliver its promises.

Your business concern	Policies to examine
Expensive electricity	New generation, electricity-market reform and network investment
Gas supply uncertainty	Domestic exploration, LNG imports and gas-transition assistance
Rising diesel costs	Fuel excise, RUC, strategic fuel reserves and freight alternatives
Expensive export freight	Road maintenance, rail freight, ports and coastal shipping
Expensive new machinery	Investment tax treatment, loans and electrification incentives
Skilled labour shortages	Apprenticeships, technical training and immigration settings
Uncertain demand	Export development, trade policy and economic growth

One particularly important consideration is the distinction between immediate and long-term policy.

For example:

• A fuel-tax freeze could affect operating costs relatively quickly.
• A business electrification loan could help with an investment decision in the near term.
• New renewable generation may take years to become available.
• New gas exploration could take several years to produce commercial supply.
• Major rail and freight infrastructure projects may take many years to deliver.

This difference in timing matters when deciding whether to purchase equipment now or wait. Gas and the 2026 NZ election: where the parties standWhere the parties stand on transport | The Chartered Institute of Logistics and TransportThe politics of power: Comparing energy policies ahead of Election 2026

6. Questions I would ask the parties before voting

Rather than asking which party has the most attractive energy announcement, I would ask candidates some very practical questions.

1. What will you do to make industrial electricity prices more predictable over the next five years?
2. How will you ensure reliable electricity supply during dry years?
3. What assistance will be available to small manufacturers replacing gas-powered equipment?
4. What will happen to diesel taxes and road-user charges over the next three years?
5. How will you improve freight connections between regional manufacturers and export ports?
6. What specific training or apprenticeship assistance will be available to manufacturing employers?
7. How will your policies encourage businesses to invest in new production equipment when export demand is uncertain?

You can also compare the parties' published commitments through Policy.nz's 2026 election policy comparison and the independent energy policy comparison.

7. My suggested approach to your equipment investment decision

Regardless of which government takes office, I would avoid basing a major equipment purchase on the assumption that electricity, gas or diesel will become substantially cheaper.

I would instead model three scenarios:

Scenario A: Energy costs remain high

• Higher electricity and diesel costs.
• Export demand remains uncertain.
• Equipment must deliver measurable productivity savings.

Scenario B: Energy costs stabilise

• Electricity supply improves.
• Fuel taxation becomes more predictable.
• Investment decisions become easier to plan.

Scenario C: Faster industrial electrification

• Electric machinery becomes more attractive.
• Renewable generation and storage expand.
• Skilled electrical and engineering labour becomes increasingly important.

For each scenario, calculate the equipment's payback period, taking account of energy, maintenance, freight, labour and financing costs.

I would also investigate whether you qualify for the existing Gas Transition Loan Guarantee Scheme or other EECA support before committing to a major project.

8. A few details would make this comparison much more useful

There are three things I would particularly like to understand about your manufacturing operation.

With those details, I can make the comparison much more concrete: how each party's policies could affect your production costs, export margins, freight bills, workforce and the financial risk of buying new machinery.

The objective is to help you assess the economic consequences of each party's policies against the realities of running your business, rather than simply comparing election promises.