2026 New Zealand election: Energy policy and the future of Taranaki jobs

Your concern is a very practical one. In New Plymouth and the wider Taranaki region, energy policy is not just about climate targets or electricity prices. It affects engineering contracts, maintenance work, fabrication, offshore services, construction, specialist trades and the businesses that employ people with mortgages to pay.

There are three questions worth separating when comparing parties:

1. Gas supply: Will New Zealand continue exploring for and producing natural gas, and what happens to the industry over the next decade?
2. Renewable energy: How quickly will wind, solar, geothermal and other alternatives be developed, and how much of that work will happen in Taranaki?
3. Industrial investment: Will government policy encourage energy-intensive industries and engineering companies to invest locally, or will uncertainty and energy shortages discourage investment?

An important distinction throughout this comparison is between creating jobs during construction, sustaining permanent operating jobs, and providing enough ongoing engineering and maintenance contracts to support local businesses.

1. The starting point: Taranaki is already experiencing a jobs transition

The most important evidence I found is the Re-Energise 26 energy workforce report, prepared by Energy Resources Aotearoa and the Electricity Engineers' Association.

According to Venture Taranaki's summary:

1,700+

Full-time-equivalent roles lost in Taranaki between 2022 and 2025

Across large energy users, oil and gas, and supporting contractors covered by the report's participating organisations.

14%

Of New Zealand's national energy workforce is based in Taranaki.

The emerging risk: Skilled workers may leave the region before replacement energy projects are developed sufficiently to employ them.

Source: Venture Taranaki, reporting on Re-Energise 26. The 1,700 figure is not a complete census of every regional employer. New report highlights challenges and opportunities for Taranaki energy workforce » Taranaki, New Zealand

This is significant for an engineering business because the effects extend beyond direct oil and gas employment. A decline in activity can reduce demand for:

• Mechanical and electrical engineering.
• Instrumentation, automation and control systems.
• Plant maintenance and shutdown contractors.
• Fabrication, welding and specialist manufacturing.
• Inspection, integrity management and pipeline services.
• Engineering design, project management and construction.

There is also a timing problem: a new renewable project might eventually create work for some of these people, but it does not automatically replace an existing maintenance contract or a large gas-field development.

Why the gas outlook matters

The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment's Energy in New Zealand 2025 report provides some hard numbers.

• Natural gas reserves at 1 January 2025 were estimated at 948 petajoules.
• This represented a 27% reduction compared with the previous year's estimate.
• Approximately 66% of that reduction resulted from operators revising their estimates of remaining reserves.
• Production was forecast to continue declining, potentially falling below 100 petajoules annually within two years.

Gas is particularly important to Taranaki because the region contains New Zealand's producing gas fields and much of the associated infrastructure. Gas is also used as an industrial feedstock, not just as fuel for electricity generation. Gas

This means that even a government which strongly supports gas exploration cannot guarantee a recovery in production or employment. New discoveries, commercial viability, development costs and the time required to bring fields online all matter.

2. How the major parties differ

The following comparison uses published policies and reported party positions available in October 2026. It is important to distinguish established policy from campaign announcements and proposals.

Party	Gas and exploration	Renewable energy	Industrial investment
National	Supports continued exploration and production; supports an LNG import facility as backup	Faster renewable consenting, more generation and private investment	Emphasises business investment, energy security and infrastructure
ACT	Strong support for exploration and market-led gas development	Supports private-sector generation and fewer regulatory barriers	Emphasises deregulation, competition and private capital
NZ First	Strongly supports domestic gas exploration and increased supply	Supports energy diversity, but prioritises reliable and affordable energy	Supports regional industry, domestic energy security and gas investment
Labour	Proposes restoring the offshore exploration ban while honouring existing permits	Supports solar and electrification, alongside electricity-market reform	Emphasises public investment, apprenticeships and support for business transition
Green Party	Opposes new oil and gas exploration and wants the exploration ban restored	Prioritises renewable generation, storage and public investment	Supports a planned transition and investment in low-emissions industries
Te Pāti Māori	Opposes further fossil fuel development	Emphasises renewable energy, community participation and energy sovereignty	Emphasises Māori ownership, community benefit and sustainable regional development

Sources and qualifications: the October 2026 party comparison and published election policies. Gas and the 2026 NZ election: where the parties standLabour's 2026 Election PoliciesPower Prices for 2026

National

National's approach is to retain a role for gas while expanding renewable electricity.

Its policy direction includes:

• Keeping offshore exploration available.
• Encouraging private investment in gas production.
• Supporting LNG imports as a backup for periods of low hydro generation.
• Speeding up consenting and development of renewable electricity.
• Improving electricity-market competition.

For Taranaki, this creates potential continuity for oil and gas engineering, alongside new opportunities in electricity and infrastructure.

However, an LNG terminal is not the same thing as a thriving domestic gas exploration industry. Importing gas can maintain some industrial energy supply, but it does not necessarily create the same local exploration, drilling, production and field-maintenance contracts.

ACT

ACT generally takes a market-led approach, with fewer restrictions on energy development.

Its position supports:

• Continued exploration and domestic gas production.
• LNG as an option for supply security.
• Private-sector investment in generation and infrastructure.
• Reducing regulatory barriers to development.

For local engineering firms, the potential benefit is an environment in which private energy companies can pursue projects with fewer regulatory constraints.

The uncertainty is whether the commercial market will actually generate enough new projects and whether those projects will be located in Taranaki.

NZ First

NZ First places particular emphasis on domestic energy security and resource development.

Its stated direction includes:

• More domestic gas exploration.
• A proposed $1 billion offshore surveying programme.
• Support for reliable backup energy.
• Greater emphasis on domestic gas than dependence on imports.

For Taranaki, this is relevant because offshore exploration and production directly use many of the region's existing engineering capabilities.

But surveying and exploration expenditure are not equivalent to long-term production employment. The commercial outcome of exploration remains uncertain.

Labour

Labour's direction differs significantly on new gas exploration.

Its stated position is to:

• Reinstate the offshore exploration ban.
• Honour existing exploration permits.
• Oppose the proposed LNG import facility.
• Reform the electricity market.
• Expand solar through its SolarSaver programme.
• Support skills and apprenticeship development.

Labour has also published policies supporting apprenticeships and a Future Fund intended to invest in New Zealand's productive capacity. Gas and the 2026 NZ election: where the parties standLabour's 2026 Election Policies

For Taranaki, the question is whether renewable electricity, industrial electrification and other investment can generate sufficient work to replace declining fossil-fuel-related activity.

Green Party

The Greens' approach is to move away from fossil fuels more decisively.

Its policy direction includes:

• Restoring the exploration ban and opposing further fossil-fuel development.
• Rejecting LNG imports.
• Expanding renewable generation and electricity storage.
• Increasing public involvement in electricity investment.
• Supporting a planned transition for affected communities and workers.

This approach could create engineering demand in renewable infrastructure, storage, electrification and industrial conversion.

The critical issue for workers is the delivery timetable and whether new investment is large enough to replace the work associated with existing energy infrastructure.

Te Pāti Māori

Te Pāti Māori places emphasis on moving away from fossil fuels, developing renewable energy and increasing Māori participation and ownership.

Its approach is relevant to Taranaki through questions of:

• Māori land and resource participation.
• Community ownership of energy developments.
• Renewable energy investment.
• Local employment and economic benefits.

The practical test is how much of the proposed investment becomes funded, contracted work for regional engineering businesses.

An important additional party: The Opportunity Party (TOP)

TOP is worth including because it has a distinct renewable investment proposal.

Its published direction includes:

• A target of 30 gigawatts of new renewable generation by 2050.
• A cross-party approach to renewable development.
• Opposition to new LNG import terminals.
• Support for household electrification.

This is a long-term generation ambition, not a guarantee that 30 GW will be built or that a particular proportion of the associated work will go to Taranaki. Gas and the 2026 NZ election: where the parties standCompare NZ Political Parties Side by Side

3. What could actually create jobs in Taranaki?

This is where the discussion becomes more useful than simply comparing party positions.

Taranaki has an existing engineering workforce and industrial infrastructure that could be used in several different energy markets.

A. Domestic gas and offshore energy

Potential work includes exploration, drilling, offshore maintenance, pipelines, production facilities, inspection and integrity engineering.

Existing local capability

The most direct continuation of much of the existing oil and gas supply chain, although exploration does not guarantee discoveries or sustained contracts.

B. Wind and offshore renewable energy

Potential work includes structural engineering, foundations, electrical systems, grid connections, installation, marine logistics and maintenance.

Transferable skills

Mechanical, electrical, structural and project-management expertise transfers well, although offshore wind requires additional specialised capability and investment.

C. Hydrogen and industrial electrification

Potential work includes process engineering, pressure systems, electrical installation, control systems, renewable power integration and plant modifications.

Projects underway

This is particularly relevant to existing industrial operators and engineering contractors.

D. Geothermal energy

Potential work includes drilling, steam systems, turbines, high-pressure piping, instrumentation and ongoing maintenance.

Transferable skills

Many capabilities used in geothermal development are closely related to those used in conventional energy production.

E. Industrial manufacturing and diversification

Potential work includes fertiliser production, chemical processing, synthetic fuels, carbon capture, biogas, biomethane and industrial infrastructure.

Broader market potential

This could diversify demand beyond the oil and gas industry, but individual projects need commercial justification and confirmed investment.

Real projects and employment evidence

There are already some concrete examples of diversification.

1. Kapuni wind and green hydrogen project

hiringaenergy.com

The Kapuni project in South Taranaki is a particularly relevant example.

• Four wind turbines with 25.6 MW of generating capacity.
• A 5 MW electrolyser for green hydrogen production.
• Renewable electricity supplied to industrial operations.
• Hydrogen production for transport.
• Around 50 expected construction jobs and seven permanent facility jobs.

The project has a total cost of up to $112.3 million, with $19.9 million in government support and the remainder funded by project partners. Construction began in February 2026. Taranaki green hydrogen energy project starts🍃Kapuni Project reaches Financial Close

The important lesson is that a substantial industrial energy project can generate local engineering and construction activity, but its permanent operating workforce can be relatively small.

2. The Taranaki Alliance

dialogfitzroy.com

On 8 September 2026, the Government announced a $3 million Regional Infrastructure Fund grant to accelerate the Taranaki Alliance.

Its objective is to help local companies secure more than $100 million in contracts over three years, retaining or redeploying hundreds of skilled roles in the oil and gas sector.

This is particularly interesting because it aims to sell Taranaki's engineering, logistics and manufacturing expertise into larger procurement opportunities, including markets beyond traditional energy. Government backs Taranaki economy, jobs

However, the $100 million is a target, not a record of contracts already secured.

3. The potential LNG terminal at Port Taranaki

1news.co.nz

This is an especially important local issue.

As reported in October 2026:

• The Government had identified a preferred provider for a floating LNG import facility.
• No contract was due to be signed before the election.
• The project was intended to provide an alternative source of gas during domestic supply shortages.

For local workers, potential benefits include marine infrastructure, construction, mechanical and electrical engineering, gas handling and terminal maintenance.

But there are important distinctions:

• Imported gas is not the same as domestically produced gas.
• It could support gas-dependent industrial operations.
• It would not necessarily replace the work associated with domestic exploration and production.
• The scale of local employment depends on construction arrangements, procurement and operating requirements.

The project's future is therefore a significant point of difference between the parties. Gas and the 2026 NZ election: where the parties stand

4. What does the evidence suggest about workers over the next few years?

I would distinguish three time horizons.

Period	Main employment considerations
2026–2027	Existing gas-sector decline, maintenance work, construction and whether new projects reach final investment decisions
2028–2030	Renewable infrastructure, industrial electrification, hydrogen, offshore development and potential new gas supply
2030 onwards	Whether Taranaki establishes a diversified industrial and energy economy capable of sustaining its skilled workforce

There are three particularly important findings.

First: the employment transition is already happening.

The Re-Energise 26 report identifies investment uncertainty and a lack of confirmed replacement projects as major problems. It also highlights the risk of losing experienced workers to other regions and overseas.

That means the issue is not simply whether Taranaki has future potential. It is whether investment arrives quickly enough to retain the people who can deliver it. RE-ENERGISE 26

Second: renewable investment does not automatically replace traditional employment.

The Kapuni project demonstrates the difference between construction and permanent jobs. Fifty construction jobs are valuable, but seven permanent jobs cannot directly replace hundreds of positions across a regional industrial supply chain.

Renewables can support significant engineering contracts, but the scale, frequency and duration of projects matter.

Third: industrial demand is just as important as electricity generation.

A new wind farm creates construction and maintenance work. But if major industrial customers close, reduce production or relocate, the region can still lose substantial engineering demand.

Conversely, keeping industrial plants operating while converting their energy supply can generate work in both conventional and emerging technologies.

That is why the future of Ballance Agri-Nutrients, Methanex, other industrial customers and the wider gas transmission network matters alongside renewable generation.

5. What should someone working in Taranaki engineering examine before voting?

Given that your concern is continuity of work and mortgage security, I would look beyond the headline promise of creating jobs.

These are six useful questions to put to each party.

Question to ask	Why it matters to your employment
Will you support further domestic gas exploration?	Affects future drilling, production and associated engineering contracts.
What is your position on the Port Taranaki LNG proposal?	Could affect industrial gas availability and infrastructure investment.
What funded renewable projects will be developed in Taranaki?	Determines whether replacement engineering work is actually commissioned.
How will you keep major industrial customers operating?	Industrial customers provide ongoing maintenance and upgrade contracts.
What support will be available for retraining and redeployment?	Helps existing workers move into emerging technologies without leaving the region.
How will you ensure local businesses receive project contracts?	A project can be built in Taranaki without necessarily creating much work for Taranaki companies.

I would also look closely at whether parties have specific funding commitments, delivery dates, identified investors and measurable employment targets.

A promise to support renewable energy is not the same as a funded wind farm. A promise to support gas exploration is not the same as a commercially viable discovery.

6. My assessment of the economic risks and opportunities

Here is a neutral comparison of the different policy approaches, looking specifically at the type of employment they might support.

Policy direction	Potential employment benefit	Principal uncertainty
Continued domestic gas exploration	More continuity with existing engineering and offshore skills	Discoveries, commercial viability and production lead times
LNG import infrastructure	Construction, terminal and industrial gas-supply work	Local procurement and relatively limited permanent staffing
Accelerated renewables	New construction, electrical and infrastructure contracts	Project timing, scale and intermittency
Publicly supported energy transition	Potentially coordinated investment and workforce programmes	Funding, delivery and government execution
Māori and community-owned energy	Local ownership, development and contracting opportunities	Access to capital, project scale and delivery
Industrial diversification	Longer-term demand from new industrial customers	Whether new industries become commercially sustainable

One other development deserves attention: the Taranaki Investment Prospectus 2026 identifies offshore wind, geothermal, solar, hydrogen, biogas, biomethane and carbon capture as potential regional opportunities. It also identifies engineering and manufacturing as existing regional strengths.

That is a useful regional development vision, but it should not be confused with a list of committed projects. AREAS OF OPPORTUNITY

7. Where I would concentrate my attention

For someone employed by an engineering firm, I would pay particular attention to three things.

1. Continuity of industrial work

The most immediate concern is whether existing industrial facilities remain operational and continue investing in maintenance, upgrades and safety.

2. Conversion of existing skills

Mechanical, electrical, instrumentation, control systems, fabrication, process engineering and project-management skills can be useful across gas, geothermal, hydrogen and renewable energy.

However, employers need actual contracts to retain those people.

3. The speed of investment

Taranaki needs projects that move from announcements to final investment decisions, procurement, construction and long-term operation.

The workforce evidence suggests that waiting for the energy transition to eventually produce opportunities carries a real risk for the region.

8. Sources worth reading before 7 November 2026

These are the most relevant sources I found, rather than general election commentary.

1. Re-Energise 26 – Industry Skills Action Plan — particularly important for understanding regional job losses, skills shortages and workforce retention.
2. MBIE – Energy in New Zealand 2025: Gas — official gas production and reserve figures.
3. Gas and the 2026 NZ election: where the parties stand — a comparison of gas exploration, LNG and party positions as at 20 October.
4. Government backs Taranaki economy and jobs — details of the Taranaki Alliance and its contract target.
5. Taranaki green hydrogen project starts — actual investment and projected employment at Kapuni.
6. Te Pāti Māori energy sovereignty policy — details of its proposed $1 billion Energy Sovereignty Fund.
7. The Conversation – 2026 election policy tracker — a broader comparison of election commitments.

Final perspective

I would avoid treating this election as a simple choice between gas jobs and renewable jobs.

Taranaki's economic challenge is to retain its existing industrial capability while developing new markets for that capability.

A government can support gas exploration but still fail to generate enough commercially viable projects. Equally, a government can announce ambitious renewable targets without creating a sufficiently large or reliable pipeline of local engineering work.

For your own circumstances, the most useful distinction is between:

• Short-term employment security: maintenance, operating facilities and existing contracts.
• Medium-term employment security: confirmed projects, funded infrastructure and procurement opportunities.
• Long-term employment security: a diversified industrial base that can support engineering businesses regardless of which energy technology is dominant.

I would judge each party against those three measures rather than simply its stated position on climate change or fossil fuels.

One particularly useful next step: I can put together a more detailed Taranaki engineering employment comparison, examining which industries, companies and projects could provide work between 2027 and 2030, and how exposed each is to changes in government energy policy.

2026 election: What the energy policies could mean for Taranaki workers

Your concern is an important one. For someone working in engineering in New Plymouth, the energy debate isn't simply about whether New Zealand should produce more gas or more renewable electricity. It is about whether there will be enough investment in projects to keep engineers, contractors, fabricators, technicians and specialist service companies employed.

There is also a mortgage dimension: the difference between a policy announcement and an actual project reaching the construction and operating stages can mean several years of uncertainty for household income.

The 2026 general election is scheduled for 7 November 2026. The central energy-policy divide is between:

• Parties that want to retain or expand domestic gas exploration and use imported LNG as backup.
• Parties that want to restore restrictions on new gas exploration and accelerate renewable generation, storage and electrification.
• Differences over how much government should invest directly, rather than relying on private-sector investment.

I'll separate what parties are proposing, what is happening in Taranaki, and what the available employment evidence can actually tell us.

1. How the parties differ on energy policy

The following reflects announced policies and public positions available as at 31 October 2026, rather than assumptions about what a future coalition would necessarily implement.

Party	Domestic gas	LNG at Port Taranaki	Renewable energy
National	Supports new exploration	Supports proceeding	Private investment, faster approvals, more generation
ACT	Strongly supports exploration	Supports LNG	Market-led generation and investment
NZ First	Strongly supports exploration and a $1bn subsurface survey	Prefers domestic gas, but accepts LNG as a backup	Supports energy development and electricity market restructuring
Labour	Would restore the exploration ban, honouring existing permits	Opposes the proposed terminal	Solar, batteries and electricity market reform
Greens	Would restore the ban and revoke recently issued permits	Opposes LNG	Publicly owned renewable investment and storage
Te Pāti Māori	Opposes expanded fossil fuel exploration	Opposes LNG	Geothermal, community solar, storage and Māori ownership
Opportunity	Opposes new exploration	Opposes LNG	Large-scale renewable expansion and a 30GW renewable capacity ambition by 2050

Sources: party policy comparisons by Sustainability Partners and MinterEllisonRuddWatts. Gas and the 2026 NZ election: where the parties standThe politics of power: Comparing energy policies ahead of Election 2026Power Prices for 2026

National

National's approach is to maintain a role for gas while increasing renewable electricity generation.

Its policies include:

• Keeping offshore exploration open following the 2025 legislative reversal.
• Establishing an LNG import facility at Port Taranaki.
• Encouraging private investment in renewable generation and transmission.
• Making it easier for households to install solar and batteries.
• Improving competition and electricity affordability.

For Taranaki, this means continued support for the existing gas industry, alongside potential work associated with LNG infrastructure and renewable projects.

The important qualification is that LNG is not yet a committed construction project. The Government has identified a preferred provider, but has deferred its contract decision until after the election. LNG in New ZealandPower Prices for 2026

ACT

ACT takes a particularly market-oriented approach.

It supports:

• Continued offshore oil and gas exploration.
• Domestic gas production as a preferred source of supply.
• LNG imports to provide backup when domestic supply is insufficient.
• Private-sector investment in electricity generation.
• Reducing barriers to new energy infrastructure.

For engineering businesses, the potential opportunity is continued work in oil and gas, gas infrastructure and electricity projects.

However, ACT's approach relies heavily on private investors deciding that projects are commercially viable. Supporting exploration does not guarantee that companies will drill, discover commercially recoverable gas or employ local contractors.

NZ First

NZ First has a particularly strong emphasis on developing domestic energy resources.

Its proposals include:

• A $1 billion National Subsurface Development Survey.
• Further exploration of offshore basins.
• Investigating geothermal resources and carbon storage.
• Restructuring the electricity market, including separating generation and retail businesses.
• Supporting industrial development through regional investment initiatives.

NZ First prefers domestic gas over imported LNG, although it has accepted LNG as a practical backup.

The proposed survey could create geological, engineering and technical work, but exploration is not the same as production. Even successful discoveries would take time to become operating assets.

Labour

Labour's approach would involve a significant change in direction from the current Government.

Its principal positions include:

• Restoring the prohibition on new oil and gas exploration.
• Honouring existing exploration permits.
• Opposing the proposed LNG terminal.
• Reforming the electricity market to address dry-year security and electricity pricing.
• Investing in household and community solar and battery installations through its $160 million SolarSaver programme.

Labour has also talked about partnering with businesses to electrify industrial processes.

The distinction worth noting is that Labour has not published an equally detailed, fully funded Taranaki industrial employment replacement programme. Its renewable policies could create engineering demand, but the scale and location of that demand are important unanswered questions.

Greens

The Greens propose a more substantial government role in the electricity system.

Their July 2026 energy policy centres on Kiwipower, a publicly owned energy company.

It would:

• Invest in renewable generation and energy storage.
• Develop geothermal, battery, biomass and other firming capacity.
• Support independent electricity generators.
• Restore the offshore exploration ban and revoke permits issued since its removal.
• Oppose the LNG terminal.
• Invest in community-owned renewable generation.

The Greens have proposed a wider energy package costing approximately $3.1 billion over four years.

For Taranaki, geothermal, biogas, storage and renewable infrastructure could create opportunities for engineering companies. However, the proposed reduction in new fossil fuel investment could also mean fewer opportunities in traditional upstream gas engineering.

The Greens propose a state-owned energy companyGas and the 2026 NZ election: where the parties stand

Te Pāti Māori and Opportunity

These parties also oppose expanding fossil fuel development, but have different approaches to industrial investment.

• Te Pāti Māori emphasises energy sovereignty, Māori and iwi ownership, geothermal development, community solar, microgrids and energy storage. This could support locally owned projects and regional contracting opportunities.
• Opportunity proposes a cross-party agreement to build 30GW of renewable capacity by 2050, alongside changes to energy regulation and investment arrangements. This would provide a long-term renewable development framework if implemented.

For both, the key question for local engineering firms is how much of the investment would translate into actual Taranaki projects, rather than projects elsewhere in New Zealand.

Gas and the 2026 NZ election: where the parties standThe politics of power: Comparing energy policies ahead of Election 2026

2. What is actually happening to employment in Taranaki?

This is where the evidence becomes particularly important.

There are some hard numbers that should inform your thinking, regardless of which party you favour.

1,700+

Full-time equivalent jobs lost in Taranaki between 2022 and 2025

Across oil and gas, large energy users, contractors and consulting businesses.

14%

Taranaki's share of New Zealand's energy workforce

According to the 2026 Re-Energise workforce report.

1,893

People employed in Taranaki's energy sector in 2024

The Beca and MartinJenkins regional energy study, using Infometrics data.

Sources: New report highlights challenges and opportunities for Taranaki energy workforce » Taranaki, New Zealandtrc.govt.nz

The first figure comes from the 2026 Re-Energise report, published by Energy Resources Aotearoa and the Electricity Engineers' Association.

It is particularly relevant because the losses include the contractors and consultants who support energy companies, not just employees directly employed by oil and gas producers.

The report also says:

• Job losses have affected engineering, technical, operational, trade, professional and support occupations.
• Emerging energy industries have not yet created enough work to offset those losses.
• The survey covers participating organisations, so the actual regional losses may be higher.

This is an important distinction: the transition is already affecting people in engineering and related industries. It is not just a theoretical future risk. RE-ENERGISE 26energyresources.org.nz

The regional economy is exposed

The Taranaki Regional Council's 2025 energy scenarios report found that the energy sector contributed approximately:

• $2.03 billion to regional GDP in 2024.
• 1,893 jobs.
• $843 million in exports.

That was approximately 18% of regional GDP.

The report also found that electricity distribution and hydroelectricity employment had grown over the preceding decade, while petroleum exploration, oil and gas support services and gas supply had experienced employment or economic declines.

This suggests that employment opportunities are already changing within the broader energy economy. trc.govt.nztrc.govt.nztrc.govt.nz

3. What could replace traditional oil and gas work?

There are several credible opportunities for Taranaki. The challenge is that their timing, investment and employment scale are not yet certain.

A. Gas infrastructure and LNG

Potential work in:

• Pipeline and process engineering.
• Mechanical and structural engineering.
• Marine infrastructure.
• Instrumentation and controls.
• Commissioning, maintenance and safety.

This is the most direct continuation of many existing oil and gas capabilities.

B. Offshore wind

Potential work in:

• Marine and civil engineering.
• Port upgrades and fabrication.
• Electrical infrastructure.
• Foundations and structural engineering.
• Installation and ongoing maintenance.

Taranaki's coastal geography and existing marine and energy expertise are relevant advantages. But offshore wind still needs significant project development and investment before large-scale construction employment materialises.

C. Geothermal

Potential work in:

• Drilling and well engineering.
• High-pressure piping.
• Process plant design.
• Turbines and electrical systems.
• Maintenance and plant upgrades.

Geothermal has a particularly useful overlap with conventional energy engineering.

D. Hydrogen and industrial decarbonisation

Potential work in:

• Process plant engineering.
• Gas handling and compression.
• Storage systems.
• Industrial electrification.
• Chemical processing and safety systems.

These opportunities could use existing Taranaki expertise, but commercial viability and customer demand remain important uncertainties.

E. Solar, batteries and grid infrastructure

Potential work in:

• Electrical engineering.
• Substations and transmission.
• Battery storage.
• Grid integration.
• Construction and maintenance.

These technologies may provide a broader range of projects, although not all will be located in Taranaki.

The regional evidence is encouraging but needs to be interpreted carefully.

The Beca and MartinJenkins study identifies offshore wind, hydrogen, biogas and carbon capture as possible areas for Taranaki to build on its existing capabilities.

It identifies two particularly different potential futures:

• A large-scale energy hub, with offshore wind, hydrogen, advanced manufacturing and substantial infrastructure investment.
• A more decentralised energy system, with community energy, solar, batteries, biogas and local ownership.

Neither is a guaranteed forecast. They are scenarios illustrating what could happen under different investment and policy conditions. trc.govt.nztrc.govt.nz

4. The LNG terminal: what could it mean for local jobs?

This deserves particular attention because it is a concrete proposal involving New Plymouth's port.

venture.org.nz

The Government's proposed LNG facility would use a floating storage and regasification vessel at Port Taranaki.

The idea is to import liquefied natural gas, convert it back into gas and feed it into the existing transmission pipeline system.

As at 31 October:

• A preferred provider has been identified.
• The proposed facility is at Port Taranaki.
• MBIE is progressing discussions.
• No contract will be signed before the election.
• The next Government will have an important role in deciding whether it proceeds.

Sources: MBIE's LNG project update and Port Taranaki's project information. LNG in New ZealandLNG at Port Taranaki

How many jobs might it create?

There is useful independent industry workforce analysis in the Re-Energise 26 report.

It uses the Port Kembla LNG terminal in Australia as a comparison for a possible small-scale Taranaki facility.

Indicative employment based on the Australian comparison

130–150

Construction and enabling works jobs

Temporary project employment

40–50

Ongoing operational jobs

Longer-term employment

The construction estimate includes approximately 15–20 planning, engineering and design positions. The operational estimate includes approximately 4–6 asset integrity, reliability, maintenance and technical assurance positions.

Source: Re-Energise 26, scenario modelling using Port Kembla as a comparator. These are estimates, not confirmed Taranaki vacancies.

This is an important finding for your situation.

An LNG terminal could create worthwhile engineering and contractor work, but it is unlikely by itself to replace thousands of jobs lost across the regional energy industry.

It is also important to distinguish the jobs associated with building the terminal from those required to operate it. Construction can provide a temporary boost, while permanent operational staffing is much smaller. energyresources.org.nzenergyresources.org.nz

5. What is happening with industrial investment beyond LNG?

One initiative worth watching is the Taranaki Alliance.

It brings together more than 80 regional engineering, manufacturing and industrial businesses to pursue large procurement opportunities.

In September 2026, the Government announced a $3 million Regional Infrastructure Fund grant to accelerate the initiative.

Its stated ambition is to help local businesses secure more than $100 million in contracts over three years, supporting the retention or redeployment of hundreds of skilled oil and gas roles.

This matters because it recognises that local engineering businesses need customers beyond the traditional upstream gas industry.

However, the $100 million is a target for contracts, not money already secured or a guarantee of hundreds of permanent jobs. Government backs Taranaki economy, jobsTaranaki Alliance » Taranaki, New ZealandDavid's Digest

There are also specific renewable projects in the regional pipeline:

• Contact Energy's proposed Stratford solar farm, with 170MWdc of capacity.
• Meridian's Waiinu Energy Park, spanning the Taranaki and Manawatū-Whanganui regions, with potential to power up to 230,000 homes through wind, solar and battery storage.
• Potential offshore wind development, with feasibility work underway.

These projects could support civil, electrical, mechanical and construction work. But project capacity is not a measure of local jobs, and project announcements should not be confused with completed investment. trc.govt.nzAREAS OF OPPORTUNITY

6. The biggest economic risk: gas supply is declining regardless of the election result

There is one important reality that cuts across party politics.

New Zealand's domestic gas production is declining.

MBIE's 2026 energy report confirms that production continued to fall during 2025, with supply constraints affecting major industrial users.

The gas industry's 2026 supply study reports that:

• Production has more than halved since 2016.
• Production fell by 34% in the two years covered by its latest analysis.
• The Māui field is reaching the end of its productive life.
• Further production opportunities exist, but drilling economics and technical challenges are significant.

The gas industry's assessment is not politically neutral in every respect, so its forecasts should be considered alongside MBIE's official production data. Gas2026 Gas Supply

This means a government supporting exploration cannot promise a rapid return to previous production levels.

Even if new exploration succeeds, the time between exploration, discovery, commercial development and production can be substantial.

Conversely, restoring the exploration ban does not instantly eliminate existing gas production or existing permits.

For Taranaki, the central economic challenge is securing enough replacement investment before existing industries and their supply chains contract further.

7. What should someone with an engineering job and a mortgage watch?

I would distinguish three different employment horizons.

Time horizon	What matters most
Next 1–2 years	Existing gas contracts, maintenance, decommissioning, LNG decisions and current construction projects
2–5 years	New renewable projects, offshore wind development, industrial electrification and energy infrastructure
5–10 years	Hydrogen, offshore wind operations, advanced manufacturing and new industrial customers

These are planning horizons, not predictions of when particular projects will happen.

For household financial planning, I would pay particular attention to four indicators.

1. Actual contracts awarded

A project announcement is encouraging, but a signed engineering or construction contract is much stronger evidence of future income.

2. The balance between construction and permanent employment

A project might employ 150 people for construction but only 40 permanently. That is a different proposition for long-term regional employment.

3. Whether existing engineering businesses diversify

Can your employer use its existing people, equipment and technical expertise to win work in geothermal, wind, industrial processing, electricity infrastructure and other sectors?

4. Whether skilled workers can move between industries

The Re-Energise report identifies retraining, recognition of existing competencies and workforce mobility as important challenges. Existing oil and gas experience is transferable, but that doesn't mean every worker will automatically qualify for every renewable-energy position. energyresources.org.nzenergyresources.org.nz

I would also be cautious about making a mortgage decision based on the assumption that either an LNG terminal or a major offshore wind development will definitely proceed.

8. A neutral way to compare the parties against your economic concerns

Rather than asking which party is best, it may help to consider what kind of regional economy each policy direction is attempting to create.

Your concern	Relevant policy difference
Maintaining existing oil and gas engineering work	National, ACT and NZ First support continued exploration; Labour, Greens and others oppose new exploration
New industrial infrastructure	Compare the parties' commitments to actual regional investment and procurement
Keeping engineering jobs in Taranaki	Examine local-content policies, regional procurement and workforce development
New renewable-energy work	Compare funding, project delivery, grid investment and ownership arrangements
Long-term electricity reliability for industry	Compare LNG and domestic gas with storage, geothermal and renewable firming
Predictability for businesses	Examine whether policies have funding, implementation dates and cross-party durability

One further point: New Zealand uses MMP. The policies of smaller parties can become important in government formation and coalition negotiations. A party's election manifesto is therefore not necessarily the policy that will ultimately be implemented.

For independent comparisons, I would use:

• Policy.nz – compare parties' actual election policies.
• MBIE – energy supply statistics, forecasts and government policy.
• Venture Taranaki – regional economic development and employment initiatives.
• Taranaki Regional Council – the regional energy scenarios and energy precinct work.

My overall assessment of the evidence

There are three conclusions I think are particularly important to keep in mind.

1. The existing energy-sector employment contraction is real. The loss of more than 1,700 FTE positions between 2022 and 2025 is significant, particularly because it includes the engineering and contracting supply chain.

2. Neither gas nor renewables alone currently provide a demonstrated replacement for those jobs. LNG could provide some relatively direct engineering employment, while renewables offer a broader range of potential opportunities. But the scale, timing and local employment content of those opportunities remain uncertain.

3. Investment certainty may be as important as the choice of energy technology. Businesses need to know that projects will actually proceed, that funding exists, and that local companies can compete for the work.

The regional Beca/MartinJenkins study is especially worth reading because it explores four possible futures for Taranaki, rather than assuming there is only one way forward. trc.govt.nzenergyresources.org.nz

One question that would help narrow this down

What sort of engineering work does your firm primarily undertake?

For example, is it predominantly:

• Mechanical, piping and process engineering?
• Electrical, instrumentation and controls?
• Civil and structural engineering?
• Project management, design consultancy and construction services?
• A mixture of these?

That distinction matters considerably. I can use it to compare which of the proposed gas, LNG, geothermal, wind and industrial investment pathways could realistically generate demand for your particular skills over the next three to five years, without making assumptions about how you should vote.