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I run a small manufacturing business that exports and employs staff. We are considering new equipment but worry about demand, freight costs and finding skilled workers. I am considering my vote in the 2026 New Zealand general election. What do parties propose about trade access, international relationships and risks to New Zealand exports?
New Zealand 2026 election: what export businesses should look for
For a small New Zealand manufacturer that exports and employs staff, the key political question is how each party would help you reach overseas customers, manage trade and freight risks, and invest in equipment and skills without taking on too much risk.
It helps to separate three issues that are sometimes grouped together in election campaigns:
- Trade access: tariffs, free-trade agreements, overseas market access and the ability to sell into major economies.
- International relationships: how New Zealand manages its relationships with China, Australia, the United States, the European Union and other trading partners.
- Business resilience: what happens if overseas demand falls, shipping costs rise, supply chains are disrupted or skilled workers are difficult to find.
A government can pursue new trade agreements, but it cannot guarantee foreign demand, stable freight rates or access to every market. Those risks matter when deciding whether to commit capital to new machinery.
1. What the main parties are proposing
The election is scheduled for Saturday 7 November 2026. The comparison below uses published campaign policies and reporting available as of 26 October 2026. One important distinction: a party's stated intention is not the same as an enacted policy or a guaranteed business outcome. 2026 Election Q&AThe main parties vying to form New Zealand's next government
National
Expand market access and make exporting easier
National's published trade plan, New Zealand's Next Billion Customers, proposes new trade negotiations across Europe, Asia, Africa and South America; negotiations with seven new economies over five years; more digital customs and paperless trade; and at least 23 targeted trade missions over the next parliamentary term. It also wants to strengthen essential-supplies agreements and maintain the goal of doubling export value by 2034. New Zealand's Next Billion CustomersNational to pursue the next billion customers
What this could mean for you: more help finding overseas customers, fewer administrative barriers and potential new markets for manufactured products.
What to scrutinise: how much practical support smaller manufacturers receive, when any new agreements take effect, and whether the target markets suit your particular product.
Labour
Small-business investment, jobs and workforce development
Labour's published campaign priorities include a small-business action plan, a proposed tax write-off for new equipment costing up to $10,000, faster payment of invoices, and changes to apprenticeship support. It also proposes replacing the Accredited Employer Work Visa with a shortage-led skilled-work visa. Labour's 2026 Election PoliciesElection policy tracker: what the parties are promising
What this could mean for you: potential help with smaller equipment purchases, cash flow and training or recruitment. The skilled-work visa proposal could matter if you cannot recruit locally.
What to scrutinise: the final eligibility and implementation rules, whether the equipment provision covers your intended purchase, and the effect of employment-policy changes on your labour costs.
These are relevant business policies, but they should not be confused with a commitment to a particular new export agreement.
Green Party
Environmental standards, international cooperation and a different approach to trade
The Greens' 2026 manifesto emphasises peace, climate action, human rights and a more independent New Zealand voice internationally. The party has raised concerns about trade deals that lack strong environmental protections, labour standards or adequate Treaty safeguards. Manifesto 2026Immigration Policy: Where NZ Parties Stand in 2026
What this could mean for you: if your customers value low-emissions production, traceability and responsible supply chains, the party's priorities may be relevant to your market strategy.
What to scrutinise: the effects of proposed environmental and employment requirements on production costs, and the specific terms under which the party would support or oppose new trade agreements.
The potential commercial benefits of sustainability depend on what your customers actually require and whether they will pay for it.
ACT
Market-oriented business settings and trade openness
ACT has supported the New Zealand–India Free Trade Agreement and generally advocates a market-oriented approach to economic policy. Its broader business agenda emphasises regulatory reform and lower barriers to economic activity. Immigration Policy: Where NZ Parties Stand in 2026The main parties vying to form New Zealand's next government
What this could mean for you: the party's approach may be relevant if you want a business environment that prioritises commercial flexibility and less regulation.
What to scrutinise: the detail of any proposed regulatory changes, their impact on your particular workforce and industry, and which additional trade agreements ACT would prioritise. The general economic approach alone does not establish what freight or market-access support your business would receive.
New Zealand First
National interests, domestic industry and scrutiny of trade agreements
NZ First opposed the India trade agreement, arguing that its terms were unbalanced, particularly because of the treatment of dairy and provisions relating to migration. Its broader policy also includes more restrictive immigration proposals and support for domestic energy and industry initiatives. Parliament clears India trade deal but political risks remainImmigration Policy: Where NZ Parties Stand in 2026The main parties vying to form New Zealand's next government
What this could mean for you: its emphasis on domestic capacity and national interests may be relevant if your manufacturing operation depends on locally available inputs or reliable energy supplies.
What to scrutinise: whether a more cautious approach to particular agreements could delay access to customers or expose your exports to tariffs for longer, and how proposed immigration restrictions would affect recruitment.
The Opportunity Party (TOP)
Productivity, technology and investment
TOP's published economic proposals include lifting research and development spending to at least 2% of GDP, technology investment tax credits, and a tax credit to help small businesses adopt advanced digital tools. It also supports attracting skilled workers in high-demand occupations. Election policy tracker: what the parties are promisingEmployment
What this could mean for you: if new machinery is part of a broader automation, productivity or product-development investment, the party's innovation proposals are worth examining.
What to scrutinise: whether the credits apply to your planned equipment and whether there are direct proposals for export finance, trade negotiations or freight costs. Innovation policy is not a substitute for guaranteed market access.
Te Pāti Māori
Māori enterprise, procurement and economic sovereignty
Its published economic priorities include a Māori Trade Commission, a target for 25% of government procurement to go to Māori businesses, and an energy sovereignty fund. The party has opposed the India agreement, citing concerns about Treaty obligations and Māori interests. 2026 General Election Policies: What they could mean for businesses | New ZealandImmigration Policy: Where NZ Parties Stand in 2026
What this could mean for you: the procurement proposal may matter if your business is Māori-owned or could become a supplier to government or Māori enterprises. Energy and industrial-development proposals may also be relevant to manufacturing.
What to scrutinise: the practical eligibility rules, how the proposed trade commission would support exporters, and the party's preferred terms for international agreements.
For the smaller parties in particular, the distinction between a general economic philosophy and a detailed, costed export policy is important. The summaries above do not imply that every party has published a complete programme for freight costs or export-market risk.
2. The international relationships that matter to your business
New Zealand's foreign relationships can affect your export business even when domestic tax and employment policy remains unchanged.
China and other Asian markets
A key question is how a government balances commercial access to China with relationships with other partners and concerns about economic security. If you sell into Asia, assess the risk of dependence on a single customer, country or shipping route.
United States and trade restrictions
Changes to US tariffs and trade rules can affect New Zealand exporters directly or indirectly through customers and suppliers in other countries. Ask parties how they would respond to new trade barriers and help affected businesses diversify. The main parties vying to form New Zealand's next governmentElection policy tracker: what the parties are promising
European Union and other markets
Existing trade agreements and future negotiations may reduce tariffs or administrative barriers, but the benefit depends on your product's tariff classification, rules of origin and compliance costs. National has explicitly prioritised additional negotiations in Europe, alongside markets in Asia, Africa and South America. New Zealand's Next Billion CustomersNational to pursue the next billion customers
Singapore, Australia and supply-chain partners
Trade relationships are also about securing access to essential inputs and maintaining reliable transport and supply routes. National has proposed extending essential-supplies agreements modelled on the New Zealand–Singapore arrangement. For manufacturers, this issue can be just as relevant as export tariffs if machinery parts or production inputs are imported. New Zealand's Next Billion CustomersNational to pursue the next billion customers
A practical distinction: a free-trade agreement does not automatically reduce ocean freight rates. It can lower tariffs and some administrative costs, but fuel prices, shipping capacity, insurance, port congestion and global disruptions remain separate risks.
3. A concrete example: the India trade agreement
The New Zealand–India Free Trade Agreement is a useful test of how parties differ on trade access and international relationships.
Where the parties stand
Parliamentary positions on the agreement in June 2026
| Party | Position |
| National | Supported |
| Labour | Supported |
| ACT | Supported |
| New Zealand First | Opposed |
| Greens | Opposed |
| Te Pāti Māori | Opposed |
Source: reporting on the parliamentary first-reading vote, 25 June 2026. India trade deal clears its first hurdle in Parliament as Winston Peters breaks ranks to oppose itParliament clears India trade deal but political risks remain
The agreement aims to reduce or eliminate tariffs on a large proportion of New Zealand exports to India. However, dairy was excluded from the main tariff concessions, which was one of NZ First's objections. Other opponents raised concerns about migration, environmental protections, Treaty obligations and the government's ability to regulate in the public interest. India trade deal clears its first hurdle in Parliament as Winston Peters breaks ranks to oppose itImmigration Policy: Where NZ Parties Stand in 2026
For a manufacturer, the lesson is that trade agreements can create opportunities, but the value depends on what you make and sell. A tariff reduction for wool or seafood may have little direct effect on a company exporting industrial components. An agreement that reduces duties on your products or makes imported machinery cheaper could be much more consequential.
4. How to assess the risks before buying equipment
The election matters, but your capital-investment decision should also withstand scenarios in which the government cannot control the outcome.
Demand risk
Ask whether the party's trade proposals focus on markets where your existing customers operate, or whether they depend on opening entirely new markets. New agreements can take years to negotiate and implement.
Business test: calculate whether the equipment remains affordable if export orders fall by 15–20%.
Freight and supply-chain risk
Look for concrete proposals on essential supplies, customs delays, transport infrastructure and supply-chain diversification. National has published specific proposals on digital customs and essential-supplies agreements, but those measures do not guarantee lower shipping prices. New Zealand's Next Billion CustomersNational to pursue the next billion customers
Business test: model a 20% increase in freight costs and a delay in receiving critical imported parts.
Skilled-worker risk
Compare proposals for apprenticeships, vocational training, skilled migration and employer obligations. Labour has published proposals on apprenticeship support and a shortage-led skilled-work visa; other parties have different approaches to employment rules and immigration. Election policy tracker: what the parties are promisingLabour's 2026 Election PoliciesEmployment
Business test: calculate the investment return if you cannot recruit an additional qualified operator for six months.
Equipment and productivity risk
Compare the actual tax treatment of the proposed machine, available investment incentives, energy costs, financing conditions and expected productivity gains. Labour's proposed write-off is specifically for equipment costing up to $10,000, while TOP has proposed broader technology investment incentives. Eligibility and final implementation matter. Election policy tracker: what the parties are promisingLabour's 2026 Election Policies
Business test: compare the payback period with and without the proposed tax or investment support.
5. A practical comparison checklist for your vote
When reading party manifestos or attending candidate meetings, these are the questions most directly related to your situation.
| Question to ask | What to look for in the answer |
|---|---|
| How will you improve access to our export markets? | Specific countries, products, tariff barriers and implementation timelines |
| What will you do if a major trading partner introduces new tariffs? | Diversification assistance, trade diplomacy and support for affected exporters |
| How will you reduce the cost and uncertainty of exporting? | Concrete customs, logistics, infrastructure or export-development measures |
| How will you help small manufacturers invest? | Equipment incentives, investment finance, R&D support and clear eligibility |
| How will you address skilled-worker shortages? | Apprenticeships, training capacity, migration settings and implementation details |
| How will you protect access to essential inputs? | Supply-chain agreements, alternative suppliers and contingency planning |
You can compare parties against these questions without assuming that a broad promise about economic growth will necessarily translate into lower costs or more orders for your business.
6. What I would establish before making the investment decision
Separate the election decision from the equipment decision, then use the same business assumptions to evaluate both.
- Export exposure: identify your three largest overseas markets and the share of revenue each represents.
- Trade exposure: establish the tariff, customs and certification requirements for your actual products in those markets.
- Freight exposure: obtain current quotes and test the effect of higher freight, fuel and insurance costs.
- Labour exposure: identify which skills are essential to operating the new machine and how long recruitment or training might take.
- Investment resilience: calculate cash flow and payback under a base case, a weaker-demand case and a combined downside case.
My key observation is that the parties' differences are clearest on the approach to new trade agreements, the role of regulation and the domestic business environment. The election promises are less definitive about the freight rates, customer demand and labour availability that will determine whether your particular equipment purchase succeeds.
For your circumstances, the most useful next step would be to compare the parties' proposals against the type of manufacturing you do, rather than treat all exporters as facing the same risks.
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