2026 New Zealand election: trade, exports and manufacturing

For a small New Zealand manufacturer that exports and employs staff, the election raises several connected business questions:

• Market access: Will your products face fewer tariffs, regulatory barriers and customs delays?
• International relationships: Will New Zealand maintain constructive relationships with major trading partners, particularly China, Australia, the EU, the US and emerging markets?
• Freight and supply chains: What are parties proposing to reduce transport costs and protect access to essential imported materials and equipment?
• Workforce: What will parties do about apprenticeships, technical training, immigration and the availability of skilled workers?
• Investment confidence: Will their economic and regulatory policies make it easier to justify buying new machinery?

Below is a comparison of the main parties' published positions as at 1 November 2026. I distinguish announced policies from broader political approaches: not every party has published a detailed manufacturing or export strategy.

1. Trade access: what the parties are proposing

The 2026 election is scheduled for 7 November. The following covers the seven parties tracked in the current election policy comparison.

Party	Published trade and export approach	What it could mean for manufacturers
National	Pursue seven new trade negotiations over five years, targeting Brazil, Switzerland, Argentina, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Uruguay and the European Free Trade Association. Expand digital customs, reduce non-tariff barriers and conduct at least 23 trade missions.	More potential export markets, customs simplification and export assistance. Benefits depend on negotiations actually producing agreements and commercial demand.
Labour	Prioritise stronger relationships with the EU, Canada, ASEAN and Pacific countries, while developing opportunities in Africa and South America. Supports open trade and multilateral institutions.	Potentially stronger diplomatic and commercial connections across several markets. Its approach places particular emphasis on international cooperation and relationships.
ACT	Emphasises business competitiveness, economic growth and reducing regulatory burdens.	Relevant to operating costs and business regulation, although I would distinguish these general economic positions from a specific new export-market commitment.
Green Party	Emphasises international climate cooperation, sustainability and peacekeeping.	International environmental standards and climate-related trade requirements are particularly relevant to exporters. Its published programme does not provide a National-style list of new trade negotiations.
NZ First	Takes a more national-interest and sovereignty-focused approach to international affairs. Its position on the India trade agreement has also been a point of difference within the governing coalition.	Important to examine how its approach to trade agreements and international relationships might affect market access and policy continuity.
Te Pāti Māori	Emphasises Māori economic development, self-determination and Māori ownership.	Relevant to Māori-owned manufacturing, primary-sector supply chains and regional economic development. A detailed general export-negotiation programme is less evident.
The Opportunity Party (TOP)	Focuses on economic and institutional reform, productivity and long-term investment.	Relevant to the broader business environment, but its published policies offer less specific detail on trade negotiations than National's.

Sources: National's published trade policy and Labour's foreign affairs policy; the wider 2026 policy tracker. New Zealand's Next Billion CustomersForeign AffairsElection policy tracker: what the parties are promisingKnow Your Vote

A particularly important example: the India trade agreement

The India agreement illustrates why it is worth looking beyond campaign slogans.

• The National-led government negotiated the agreement.
• Parliament approved its implementing legislation by 93 votes to 29 in October 2026.
• The government expected it to enter into force during 2026, subject to the remaining implementation procedures.
• The agreement has been politically contentious, including disagreement from NZ First.

For a manufacturer, India could represent a market for machinery, specialist components, technology and other manufactured products. However, the actual benefit depends on the product's tariff classification, rules of origin, and the agreement's specific market-access provisions.

2. International relationships and export risks

New Zealand's exporters operate in a world where diplomatic relationships can have direct commercial consequences.

Three issues deserve particular attention.

China: balancing commercial access and foreign policy

China is New Zealand's largest trading partner. Maintaining access to that market matters to businesses selling manufactured products, agricultural inputs and specialist goods.

The parties differ in their broader approach to international relationships:

• National: Pursues trade expansion and new agreements while maintaining relationships with major trading partners. Its trade policy also proposes essential-supplies agreements with trusted partners.
• Labour: Explicitly prioritises stronger relationships with the EU, Canada, ASEAN and the Pacific, alongside international law and multilateral cooperation.
• Greens: Places greater emphasis on climate diplomacy, international cooperation and human rights.
• NZ First: Emphasises national sovereignty and a more restrictive approach to immigration. Its disagreement over the India FTA demonstrates that it may take a different position from coalition partners on international agreements.
• ACT: Emphasises economic freedom and business competitiveness.
• Te Pāti Māori: Emphasises Māori interests and relationships, including Māori economic development.
• TOP: Emphasises long-term economic reform and institutional change.

These differences matter because diplomatic disputes can affect market confidence, trade negotiations, investment and supply-chain relationships. Foreign AffairsNew Zealand's Next Billion CustomersElection policy tracker: what the parties are promisingA definitive guide to the rule-outs of Election 2026

US tariffs and global trade disruption

US tariff policy is another significant concern.

New Zealand manufacturers can be affected in two ways:

1. Directly, if tariffs make New Zealand-made products more expensive for American customers.
2. Indirectly, if tariffs disrupt international supply chains, increase input costs or cause customers to change suppliers.

The 2026 election policy debate has taken place against a backdrop of US tariff disruption and wider geopolitical uncertainty. Election policy tracker: what the parties are promisingElection policy tracker: what the parties are promising

What to examine when comparing parties: Do they have a plan for diversifying export markets, negotiating improved access, maintaining diplomatic relationships and responding when trading partners impose restrictions?

A free trade agreement does not guarantee that a market will remain commercially accessible in a geopolitical crisis.

3. Freight costs and transport infrastructure

This is an area where the published policies are less directly comparable.

National, Labour and the Greens have provided transport policy submissions to the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport, covering:

• Freight movement by road, rail and coastal shipping.
• Infrastructure investment priorities.
• Supply-chain resilience.
• Transport funding and regulation.

NZ First was invited to submit but did not provide a submission by the publication deadline. Where the parties stand on transport | The Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport

For a manufacturing exporter, I would look beyond general promises about roads and transport.

The questions worth asking are:

• Will ports and freight corridors receive reliable long-term investment?
• Will rail and coastal shipping provide viable alternatives to road freight?
• Will freight infrastructure cope with disruption from extreme weather?
• Will transport policy reduce the cost and uncertainty of getting goods to overseas customers?
• Will imported machinery, components and raw materials become easier to obtain?

There is also a distinction between reducing freight costs and improving freight reliability. Both matter when overseas customers expect delivery commitments.

4. Skilled workers, apprenticeships and equipment investment

This is where some of the more tangible small-business policy differences emerge.

Selected published 2026 business and employment commitments

Party	Relevant proposal
National	A 47-point small-business support plan, including measures to reduce compliance costs and make employing staff easier.
Labour	Extend employer apprenticeship payments, offer a $1,000 toolbox grant and cover five additional trades from July 2027.
Labour	Allow an immediate tax write-off for qualifying new equipment purchases up to $10,000.
ACT	Emphasises reducing regulation and employment-related burdens on businesses.
Greens	Proposes intervention on commercial rents and broader environmental and economic reforms.
NZ First	Proposes substantially reducing non-essential immigration and a referendum on a 20,000 annual resident visa cap.
TOP and Te Pāti Māori	Have broader economic, workforce and development proposals, but less directly comparable manufacturing-specific commitments in the material reviewed.

Sources: October AMM Comms: Election 2026 – What the Parties Are Proposing for Employers and Small BusinessesElection policy tracker: what the parties are promisingNZ First Announces Immigration Reform Policies

Why these policies matter

Apprenticeships and training

Labour's proposals are particularly relevant to employers who need to train machinery operators, maintenance technicians, fabricators and other skilled workers.

Employer support could help offset training costs, although the actual benefit depends on eligibility and implementation.

Immigration

NZ First's proposed immigration restrictions are relevant to manufacturers who cannot find enough qualified local workers.

The party proposes a resident visa cap referendum and tighter immigration settings. That could change the availability of overseas recruitment pathways.

It is worth distinguishing skilled temporary work visas from resident visas: the proposed resident cap should not automatically be interpreted as a cap on every form of skilled employment.

Equipment investment

Labour's proposed $10,000 equipment tax write-off is worth examining, but it is not the same as a general investment allowance for expensive manufacturing machinery.

For a business contemplating a $100,000, $250,000 or $500,000 machine, the details of depreciation, tax treatment, financing and investment incentives are much more consequential.

National's small-business programme also deserves examination for its proposed compliance and employment changes.

October AMM Comms: Election 2026 – What the Parties Are Proposing for Employers and Small BusinessesElection policy tracker: what the parties are promising

5. The risks to put on your business planning checklist

Here is how I would translate the election debate into practical questions for your business.

Business risk	What government policy can influence	What to investigate
Overseas demand	Trade agreements, diplomatic relationships and export promotion	Diversification and access to new markets
Freight costs	Ports, roads, rail, shipping and infrastructure funding	Freight reliability and total landed cost
Imported machinery	Trade agreements, customs and supply-chain arrangements	Tariffs, delivery delays and availability of parts
Skilled labour	Apprenticeships, vocational training and immigration	Recruitment and training costs
Investment uncertainty	Tax rules, regulation and economic policy	Depreciation and investment incentives
International disruption	Foreign policy and trade diversification	Exposure to individual markets and suppliers

One important distinction: parties can influence the conditions in which your business operates, but they cannot guarantee overseas demand, shipping prices, exchange rates or access to foreign customers.

6. Questions I would use to assess each party

Rather than simply comparing general promises about economic growth, I would ask the following questions when reading each party's detailed policies.

1. Export access: What specific new markets are they trying to open, and what products could benefit?
2. Trade protection: How would they respond to tariffs or restrictions imposed by major trading partners?
3. China: How would they maintain commercial relationships while managing geopolitical disagreements?
4. Freight: What measurable improvements are proposed for ports, shipping and freight infrastructure?
5. Workforce: How will they increase the supply of skilled manufacturing workers?
6. Investment: What tax relief or financing support is available for new production machinery?
7. Business costs: What changes are proposed to employment compliance, energy costs and business regulation?

7. Where to read the policies yourself

These are useful starting points for checking the original proposals rather than relying solely on campaign statements.

• National – New Zealand's Next Billion Customers
• Labour – Foreign Affairs policy
• Employer and small-business policy comparison
• Transport and freight: party policy submissions
• The Conversation – 2026 Election Policy Tracker
• Know Your Vote – 2026 party policy comparison

8. My suggested way to evaluate the election as a manufacturer

I wouldn't judge the parties solely on who promises the most trade agreements.

For an exporting manufacturer, there are three separate questions:

• Can we sell more? Market access, overseas relationships and export assistance.
• Can we produce more competitively? Skilled labour, energy, freight and business costs.
• Can we invest confidently? Tax treatment, regulatory certainty and long-term economic settings.

A party might have a detailed export strategy but less specific support for workforce development. Another might have more detailed training proposals but fewer concrete trade-negotiation commitments.

These are different policy priorities rather than a straightforward overall ranking.

One particularly useful exercise before investing in new equipment: stress-test your business against three scenarios:

• Strong export growth and improved access to new markets.
• Flat demand combined with persistently high freight costs.
• A major overseas market becoming harder to access because of tariffs or geopolitical tensions.

Then examine which party proposals would actually change your business's exposure in each scenario.

A useful next step

I can put together a more detailed seven-party manufacturing and export comparison, concentrating on the issues that could affect your investment decision:

• Export markets and trade agreements.
• China, US, Australia and EU relationships.
• Freight and energy costs.
• Skilled-worker shortages and immigration.
• Machinery investment tax treatment.
• Small-business employment and compliance costs.

The most useful additional detail would be: What type of products do you manufacture and which overseas markets do you currently export to?

That would let me distinguish policies that might affect your actual customers and supply chains from policies that are relevant only to exporters in general.